Policy and Intelligence Newsletter - 26 January, 2021

The articles below have been drawn together by the policy and analytical community within the Council. Information is correct at the time of writing, 11 am on 25 January. 

Covid-19

• As of 24 January, a total of 11,477 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have tested positive for Covid-19. A total of 270 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have sadly died within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19. (Please note that fatality statistics are provided by Public Health England, and differ from those generated by the Office for National Statistics, which record all instances of Covid-19 being listed on the death certificate, even if there is no positive test result.)
• The most recent Government Statistics on NHS England Test and Trace (7 - 13 January) show that positive Covid-19 test results decreased by 15% compared to the previous week, the first fall since the start of December. Turnaround times for in-person swab tests under Pillar 2 (for the general population) have improved in comparison to the previous week, but are still longer than they were at the beginning of December. 53.7% of in-person test results are now received within 24 hours, compared to 31.5% in the previous week. 7% of the close contacts of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 were not reached by NHS contact tracers, following substantial changes to the way that contacts in the same household are counted - as detailed in previous newsletters.
• The Department of Health and Social Care, Imperial College London and market research firm Ipsos MORI have published interim findings from the eighth REACT report examining the levels of Covid-19 infection in the general population. More than 142,900 volunteers were tested in England from 6 to 15 January. The findings show Covid-19 infections increased by 50% from early December, with 1 in 63 people infected.
• The Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, has warned that the new UK variant of Covid-19 is transmitting between 30% and 70% more easily than the initial strain, and may be as much as 30% more deadly. A new national advertising campaign has been launched urging people to stay at home.
• At the time of writing, more than 6.3 million people in the UK have received their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. The Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, has emphasised the importance of continuing to follow Covid-19 physical distancing guidelines, even after vaccination, as the effects of the vaccines on transmission rates are not yet known. In a recent statement, he highlighted that 25% of hospital admissions for Covid-19 are for people under 55.
• People in high-risk minority ethnic groups should be prioritised for coronavirus immunisations, alongside a targeted publicity campaign, say public health experts and MPs, amid growing concerns about vaccine scepticism. The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has also raised concerns, after research from the latest annual UK Household Longitudinal Study suggested up to 72% of Black people were unlikely or very unlikely to have the jab.

Democracy

• A Local Government Information Unit survey of English local authorities has found that more than two thirds of respondents suggest it would be more achievable to hold local elections in autumn, rather than May, as currently scheduled. 11% believe elections should take place as planned, with 14% preferring a summer poll. 66% of respondents were "very concerned" about elections taking place as planned, highlighting problems with making polling places Covid-19 secure, as well as recruiting and training workers.

Economy

• The Resolution Foundation’s third Living Standards Outlook assesses how the hoped-for post-pandemic economic recovery might translate into a recovery for living standards. The analysis focuses on working-age households, projecting household disposable income for different economic groups. The report suggests that the outlook for equitable living standards looks difficult, due to factors such as the planned withdrawal of additions to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credits; an expected increase in unemployment in 2021-22; stalled income growth following EU Exit and the financial crisis. The impact for those on lower incomes and those living in or close to poverty is likely to be particularly hard. The Foundation predicts that a further 1.2 million people, including 400,000 children, will fall into relative poverty, with 23% of the UK population living in relative poverty by 2024-25.
• A new report by the Centre for Cities think-tank has found that that the Covid-19 pandemic could make the Government’s levelling-up plans four times as difficult for some parts of the country, with a risk that the South will be levelled-down. Levelling-up is now contingent on 634,000 people outside London and the South East finding secure and well-paying jobs, compared to 170,000 in March 2020. The think-tank suggests making the temporary £20 Universal Credit boost permanent, and re-introducing the Eat Out to Help Out scheme when safe to do so.

Education and early years provision

• The Education Secretary will reportedly announce soon that children will not return to in-person teaching next month as planned, with education leaders expecting a mid-April or May return.
• A new £7.6m Health and Well-Being Fund, set up by the Department of Health and Social Care, will support projects aiming to reduce health inequalities experienced by new mothers and babies. The Fund's focus is on deprived areas and mothers in Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic communities. Trelya in Penzance is one of 19 projects to receive an award, which will help the early intervention charity expand to include specialist provision for children under 2.5 years old and pregnant women.

Consultations

• The Insolvency Service is consulting on changes to the monetary eligibility criteria for Debt Relief Orders (DRO) for the most vulnerable with relatively low levels of unmanageable debt and no means with which to pay their creditors. At the end of the DRO period (usually 12 months) the debts included within the order are written off. Deadline 25 February 2021. 
• The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on bringing forward the deadline for phasing out unabated coal-fired generation in Great Britain to 1 October 2024. Deadline 26 February 2021.
• The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on the proposal to allow low-income workers who are not able to secure the number of hours they would like from their current employer to seek additional work elsewhere. Deadline 26 February 2021.
• The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and HM Treasury are seeking evidence on greenhouse gas removal methods, and views on policy mechanisms that could incentivise and facilitate their development and deployment. Deadline 26 February 2021.
• The Department of Health and Social Care is asking for opinions on whether the temporary measure allowing both pills for an early medical abortion to be taken at home should be made permanent. Deadline 26 February 2021.