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Policy and Intelligence Newsletter - 22 December, 2020

The articles below have been drawn together by the policy and analytical community within the Council. Information is correct at the time of writing, 9am on 21 December.

Covid-19

  • The new strain of Covid-19, recently identified in London and the South East, is now considered by Government to be spreading more rapidly and easily than previous strains. It may be up to 70% more transmittable. As a result of this increase in transmissibility, significant changes have been made to the tiered system of local restrictions as well as arrangements over Christmas:
    • A new Tier 4 “stay-at-home” level has been announced, covering London and parts of the East and South East of England. It includes restrictions very similar to the national lockdown. People should not enter or leave Tier 4 areas.
    • People in Tier 4 areas cannot meet other households indoors (apart from support bubbles) including for Christmas. Only one other person can be met outdoors.
    • Planned relaxations to rules previously permitting indoor gatherings of up to 3 households over 23-27 December will now only be allowed on 25 December, with no overnight stays. This applies to all tiers, including Cornwall’s Tier 1. Everyone has been encouraged to “only form a Christmas bubble if you feel you absolutely need to”.
  • As of 20 December, a total of 4,352 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have tested positive for Covid-19. A total of 180 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have sadly died within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19 (Please note that fatality statistics are provided by Public Health England, and differ from those generated by the Office for National Statistics, which record all instances of Covid-19 being listed on the death certificate, even if there is no positive test result.)

 

  • The most recent Government Statistics on NHS Test and Trace (3 - 9 December) show that positive Covid-19 test results have slightly increased compared to the previous week: 6.2% of those tested were positive, compared to 5.9% in the previous week. Rapid lateral flow test results are not counted in these statistics. Turnaround times for in-person swab tests under Pillar 2 (for the general population) have worsened in comparison to the previous week, and are longer than they were at the end of June. 60% of in-person test results are now received the following day, compared to 65% in the previous week. 7% of the close contacts of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 were not reached by NHS contact tracers, following substantial changes to the way that contacts in the same household are counted - as detailed in previous newsletters.

 

  • 10 European countries have halted or have said they will halt flights from the UK. France closed its borders to UK passengers or accompanied freight for 48 hours from the evening of 20 December. Unaccompanied freight can still travel from the UK to France, and accompanied freight can travel from France to the UK, although haulage companies may not wish to send drivers into the UK if it is unclear when they will be able to return. Dover’s ferry terminal has also closed to “all accompanied traffic leaving the UK” as a result, with the Department for Transport asking the public and particularly hauliers not to travel to Kent ports or any routes to France for 48 hours. 5 mile tailbacks have been seen on motorways around Dover. Eurostar is not running services from London to Paris, Brussels, Lille or Amsterdam on Monday or Tuesday this week, although trains to London from Paris are continuing to travel. Medical supplies coming into the UK are reported to be unaffected by the transport bans, but some disruption is anticipated to supplies of food and other goods. Residents of Tier 4 areas are not permitted to travel abroad, except for limited work purposes.

 

  • Clinical trials have begun of the Valneva Covid-19 vaccine, developed in Scotland. The UK has pre-ordered 60m doses.

 

  • Special schools, secondary schools and colleges in England will be eligible for rapid Covid-19 lateral flow testing from January. All staff will have access to weekly tests. Students and staff will have access to daily testing if they are a close contact of a positive Covid-19 case. Pupils in the same bubble as a positive Covid-19 case will not have to self-isolate if they agree to daily testing. 

 

  • ONS analysis suggests one in five people who contract Covid-19 will have “long Covid” symptoms which persist for five weeks, with one in 10 having symptoms for 10 weeks. Symptoms can include fatigue, pain, breathlessness and brain fog.

 

  • A survey by the Royal Society for Public Health has found that 76% of the UK population would agree to have a Covid-19 vaccine jab. People from BAME communities as well as those from low-income groups are less likely to want to take the vaccine.

 

  • All of Wales is now under Tier 4 restrictions, with a “stay-at-home” order in place, and only two households will be allowed to meet on Christmas Day. Scotland will allow eight people from three households to mix on Christmas Day, and has restricted travel to and from England, unless travellers have a reasonable excuse, such as work, education, healthcare or childcare. The Northern Ireland executive is permitting Christmas bubbles to form on a single day between 23 - 27 December, to accommodate those working on Christmas Day, and has asked residents only to travel if absolutely necessary.

 

  • The latest ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey has found that there is substantial variation in the presence of antibodies (suggesting that people have had the virus) in people living in different regions, with approximately 13% in London compared with around 4% in the South West. 

 

  • The Chief Medical Officer’s Annual Report highlights that Covid-19 is likely to have an impact on health in the UK for many years to come, due to the direct effects of the virus and the indirect effects of postponing the diagnosis and treatment of other conditions. The report also finds that people in deprived areas have higher levels of ill health and disease, and that more people are suffering from chronic health conditions - particularly in rural areas, due to higher elderly populations and less accessible health facilities.

 

Brexit

  • The EU has warned that time is running out to agree a trade deal, emphasising that there is now only a “narrow” path to an agreement, with sticking points remaining – particularly regarding fishing rights. Boris Johnson has warned that no deal is now “very likely” unless the EU changes its position “substantially”. Whether or not a deal is agreed, there will be a range of impacts on Cornish businesses and residents from the UK’s departure from the single market and customs union, some of which were recently were reported by Cornwall Council to the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Leadership Board.

 

  • Trade deal talks continued over the weekend and more will take place this week, although a deadline for the European parliament to ratify any agreement before the end of the year was missed on Sunday.

 

Devolution

  • The Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer MP, has announced that he wants substantially increased decentralisation of powers from Westminster under a future Labour administration.

 

Economy

  • The furlough scheme and Government-backed business loans will be extended until the end of April.

 

  • Changes to Government procurement rules will allow councils to restrict contract bids to local companies only. The plans, mentioned in a new green paper, will allow limitations on public works contracts of up to £4.7m, as well as goods and service contracts up to £122k. The Government hopes that this will promote local growth and recruitment as part of its levelling up agenda. 

 

  • New economic analysis from EY (formerly Ernst Young) has found that since the start of the pandemic, the South West has had the largest regional contraction in employment (4%) and the largest regional increase in unemployment (2.6 to 4.1%). The South West is likely to lag behind the UK average for economic productivity and employment for the next four years. The region’s economy is predicted to contract by an average 0.2% per year while employment falls 0.4% per year. The research also finds that focusing investment on cities to assist nearby towns is unlikely to work in all parts of the UK: in order to genuinely level up, a place-based approach is required, recognising local difference. Local strengths need to be built on, such as regional specialisations in manufacturing. The report suggests that important lessons can be learned from the Covid-19 pandemic, such as the growth in effective homeworking and related positive impacts on well-being. A continued emphasis on homeworking in future could allow a geographical rebalancing of the economy, again helping to level up regions once seen as peripheral.

 

  • Cornwall Council’s Economic Growth Service have produced an updated report on the ‘Economic Impact of Covid-19 on Cornwall’. The report is available on Let’s Talk Cornwall and highlights the known economic impact that the coronavirus pandemic has had on Cornwall, including that it has been more severe (than for other parts of the UK) due to the importance of the visitor economy to the county, and the high levels of self-employment and small proportion of employment within large businesses.

 

  • The Government has announced a £2.2bn funding increase for local authorities, including money for council tax reduction for vulnerable families; a local tax income guarantee to compensate councils for lost revenue from business rates and council tax; rewards for building new homes; additional support for rough sleepers and an increase to the Rural Services Delivery Grant. The provisional local government settlement funding assessment for Cornwall for 2021 - 22 shows that the Council will receive £157.3 million, £0.3 million more than in 2020 - 21.

 

  • HMRC’s latest statistics on measures introduced to support the economy in response to the Covid-19 pandemic show that, as of 13 December, 9.9 million jobs were furloughed from 1.2 million employers, with the total value of claims made standing at £46.4 billion. Claims for the third tranche of the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme opened on 30 November, and as of 13 December there had been 1.7 million claims made, to a total value of £4.8 billion. 

 

  • A report by Citizens Advice has found that the pandemic has had a significant impact on household finances and debt levels, with 7.3 million people (14% of UK adults) reportedly behind on their bills. 45% of people with children have a lower income than before the pandemic, whilst 36% of those who have lost income have depleted their savings. The report also reinforces patterns identified in other recent studies, particularly the uneven effects of the pandemic. For example, 28% of people currently struggling to their bills are from BAME ethnicities, compared to 11% of people from White ethnicities. The report suggests that economic recovery will be hampered by current debt levels, with 75 - 80% of respondents saying they were likely to spend less on eating out, clothes, home improvements and entertainment.  

 

Education

  • In the week to 10 December, 99.2% of state schools across the country were fully open, a slight drop from 99.5% in the previous week, while attendance in all state schools dropped slightly to 84.6%, from 85.5% in the previous week. The number of children attending early years settings dropped to 792,000, compared to 795,000 in the previous week. As a snapshot, on 10 December, 60% of state-funded secondary schools and 21% of state-funded primary schools reported that they had one or more pupils self-isolating due to contact with a potential Covid-19 case within the school, both representing decreases on the previous week’s figures. Between 19 - 21% of schools had more than 30 pupils self-isolating due to contact with a potential Covid-19 case within the school, the same as the previous week.

 

  • Secondary schools and colleges in England will operate a staggered return to in-person teaching in January, with classroom teaching restarting for all students on 11 January. Full-time online learning will be provided from the start of term.

 

  • Ofsted’s third report into the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on children shows continuing harm, particularly for the most vulnerable. Multiple rounds of isolation have reversed progress students had made since September, while remote learning’s effectiveness varies and is hard to establish. Many children with special educational needs or disabilities are not attending school, are struggling with remote learning, and may be more susceptible to neglect or abuse. There has been an increase in homeschooling, with many parents stating that their children will not return to mainstream education until the pandemic has finished. 

 

  • The Office for National Statistics has started a new series of surveys estimating the prevalence of Covid-19 in schools in England. 103 schools participated in the survey, across a range of local authorities with both high and low prevalence of the virus. The report’s authors emphasise that information is not intended to be applicable to the whole country and that findings are not statistically significant. Of the schools surveyed, 44.8% had no infections, while 27.6% had one current infection and 27.6% had between two and five infections. Overall, 1.24% of pupils and 1.29% of staff were infected at the time of the survey.

 

  • A greater proportion of people working in mainly urban areas have a qualification at NVQ four (equivalent to a Higher Education Certificate or BTEC) or higher, compared to those working in principally rural areas, according to statistics published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. In 2019, Workers in rural areas were slightly less likely than their urban counterparts to have received on-the-job training, with rates of 12.9% compared with 13.5%. The percentage of people with at least one qualification has risen in both rural and urban areas since 2011.

 

Environment

  • Two river restoration projects costing nearly half a million pounds have been completed on the River Camel and its tributaries, removing obstacles to the movement of migratory fish, preventing banks from eroding and reducing sewage discharge. The work has been carried out by the Environment Agency and Natural England, partnering with West Country Rivers trust.

 

  • The Coastguard and RNLI have jointly launched a Winter Coastal Safety Campaign, reminding people of the dangers of the coast at this time of year. Everyone is reminded to stay well back from cliff edges, check tide times before setting off to visit the seaside and take a mobile phone for safety.

 

Equality and diversity

  • The Office for National Statistics has found that Covid-19 mortality rates in people of Black African or Black Caribbean ethnicity was between 2 - 2.5 times higher than people of White ethnicity, in the first part of 2020. The researchers ascribe this to a range of factors, including a greater exposure of some ethnic groups at work. Working-age Black and Asian men are more likely to work in occupations with a higher risk of death involving Covid-19, such as taxi driving, security and cleaning. People of minority ethnic groups also comprise more than 25% of dental practitioners, medical practitioners and opticians. Large households have a higher Covid-19 risk, and the report finds that people aged 70 years and older, from a South Asian ethnic group, are more likely to live in a household with multiple generations.

 

  • In research titled Coronavirus and the Social Impacts on Different Ethnic Groups in the UK: 2020, the Office for National Statistics has found that the mental health of people from an Indian ethnic group may have been particularly badly impacted by the pandemic, with higher scores than other ethnic groups on measures of mental health difficulties. The research also finds that around half of working-age adults from a White British and Other White background said that they were working fewer hours than normal in April 2020, compared to 33% of respondents from Indian, Black, African or Caribbean or Black British ethnicities. 27% of people from Black, African or Caribbean or Black British ethnicities were finding it very difficult or quite difficult to cope financially, compared to 7% of people from Other White ethnic groups and 8% of people from Indian ethnic groups.

 

Housing

  • The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government has published the initial findings from its rough sleeping questionnaire, based on interviews with 563 respondents. The report found endemic overlapping vulnerabilities among the people surveyed: 83% had a physical health need; 82% reported a mental health problem and 60% had a substance abuse issue. 15% of respondents had been in prison over the past year. 75% had previously approached a local authority for help with accommodation, with 48% contacting a local authority for assistance between 1 - 5 times over the last year. 

 

  • The latest Office for National Statistics data on the deaths of rough sleepers shows that 778 homeless people died in England and Wales in 2019 - the highest level since records began in 2013. 111 registered deaths in 2019 were in the South West, where the rate of death has more than doubled since 2013. In Cornwall, there were four deaths recorded in 2019, with a further two deaths estimated to have occurred in the period. 37% of total fatalities in England and Wales were caused by drug poisoning, while 14% were suicides. The mean age at death for rough sleepers is 46 years for men and 43 years for women.

 

  • A planning application for 3,000 homes on 130 acres of land has been submitted for Langarth Garden Village near Truro. The Council-led development will include 200 care-assisted homes, 50 units for students or health workers, two primary schools as well as restaurants and offices. 48% of the development will be green spaces, and there will also be a community farm and renewable energy park.

 

  • A report by Shelter, titled Homeless and Forgotten: Surviving Lockdown in Temporary Accommodation, shows that more than 250,000 adults and children were homeless, living in temporary accommodation during the first phase of the pandemic. This is the highest number in 14 years. The number of people in temporary accommodation in March, April and May this year rose by 6,000, and temporary accommodation often lacked basic facilities such as a kitchen. Almost everybody living in temporary accommodation interviewed by Shelter said it was impossible to maintain social distancing.

 

  • Between 2019 - 20, just under 12,000 households were on the housing waiting list in Cornwall, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.

 

Consultations and Campaigns

  • The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is seeking evidence on the shark fin trade in the UK to assess whether action is needed to deal with unsustainable consequences of the trade. Deadline 04 January 2021. 

 

  • The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on increasing the mutualisation threshold for the renewables obligation scheme supporting renewable energy generation. Deadline 19 January 2021.

 

  • The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on proposed updates to the existing eco-design and energy labelling requirements which currently apply to light sources and separate control gears. Deadline 27 January 2020. 

 

  • The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government is calling for views on permitted development rights, change of use and speeding up planning permission for public service infrastructure. Deadline 28 January 2021. 

 

  • The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on the design of the proposed Green Heat Network Fund (GHNF) scheme, a funding programme to help new and existing heat networks move to low and zero carbon technologies.  Deadline 29 January 2021.

            

  • The Environment Agency wants your comments on their proposed charges for the UK Emissions trading scheme. Deadline 29 January 2021.

 

  • The Department for Education is calling for evidence on study and qualifications at level 2 and below for students aged 16 and above. Deadline 31 January 2021.

 

And finally… 

  • There will not be a Policy and Intelligence Newsletter on 29 December, but we’ll be back on 5 January. Happy holidays!
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