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Policy and Intelligence Newsletter - 15 December, 2020

The articles below have been drawn together by the policy and analytical community within the Council. This newsletter can also be found on our website.

Covid-19

  • As of 13 December, a total of 3,995 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have tested positive for Covid-19. Over the last seven days, 104 people in the Duchy have tested positive, at a rate of 18 per 100,000 population: this contrasts with 166 positive tests per 100,000 people across the whole of England. A total of 173 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have sadly died within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19. (Please note that fatality statistics are provided by Public Health England, and differ from those generated by the Office for National Statistics, which record all instances of Covid-19 being listed on the death certificate, even if there is no positive test result.)
  • The Covid-19 self-isolation period changed on Monday 14 December from 14 days to 10 days in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, following a review of evidence by the Chief Medical Officers. The new procedure has already come into force in Wales. 
  • The most recent Government Statistics on NHS Test and Trace (26 November - 2 December) show that positive Covid-19 test results continue to decrease from their peak at the start of November. Turnaround times for in-person swab tests under Pillar 2 (for the general population) have improved in comparison to the previous week, but are longer than they were at the end of June. 65% of in-person test results are now received the following day, compared with 54% in the previous week. 14% of the close contacts of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 were not reached by NHS contact tracers. 
  • As mentioned last week, from 18 November NHS Test and Trace changed how it counts the close contacts of people testing positive for Covid-19. People under 18 are no longer individually contact traced: rather, the service tries to contact one parent or guardian in the household, regardless of the number of young people who may be affected. From 27 November, a further change was introduced: adults in the same household can now also be traced collectively by a single phone call, rather than each adult being contacted individually. This has led to a further apparent increase in the proportion of close contacts of people testing positive for Covid-19 reached by NHS Test and Trace.
  • More deprived parts of the country have poorer national NHS Test and Trace success rates than less deprived areas, according to research by the Health Foundation. Nationally, an extra 9,000 positive cases and 43,000 of their close contacts would have been reached between May - November if tracing was as successful in the most deprived areas as in the least deprived. Cornwall is in the third quintile of deprivation, with 80% of positive Covid-19 cases and 66% of their close contacts reached.  
  • Research by the Nuffield Trust shows that Covid-19 has had a more severe impact on hospital waiting times in rural areas than in cities. In April 2020, there was a 66% drop in the number of patients in rural trusts receiving a first oncology appointment compared to April 2019. For urban areas over the same period, the decrease was 59%. NHS trusts in peripheral communities have had to spend more on temporary staffing costs during the pandemic: 8% of their personnel budget, compared with 6% for more central parts of the country. The researchers also found that rural areas do not receive their “fair share” of additional NHS funding.

 

Brexit

  • The Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission released a joint statement on Sunday 13 December saying that they would “go the extra mile” and extend discussions on a trade deal past a deadline which had been expected to be reached at the weekend. It is thought that issues still to be agreed upon include rights for EU fishing vessels to operate in British waters; a “level playing field” for businesses (similar rules on government subsidies and employment practices to minimise competitive advantages); and a dispute resolution method.
  • Cornwall Council will maintain its Brussels office after the end of the transition period this year. The leader of the Council, Julian German, said "I think it is really important that we are continuing to reach out to our friends and partners in Europe, that we continue to have access for our businesses and that they have that intelligence, and that we can help to make trade and relationships as smooth as possible post-Brexit."
  • With the Government emphasising the “strong possibility” of a no-deal exit from the single market and customs union, VAT-registered businesses have been contacted by HM Revenue and Customs with information on new trade arrangements with the EU from 1 January.

 

Economy

  • The monthly ONS survey, Coronavirus and the Impact on Output in the UK Economy shows that GDP is 7.9% lower than in February 2020, but has risen by 0.4% compared to October 2020 - the sixth consecutive month of growth. The manufacturing sector expanded, led by a 6.8% rise in vehicle production. There has also been growth in health, wholesale, retail and motor trades, but a decline in hospitality.
  • The Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government has announced an extension to protection from eviction for businesses affected by Covid-19. The “final extension” will end in March 2021. A review of commercial landlord/tenant legislation has also been announced. 
  • The Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords has published a report titled Employment and Covid-19: Time for a New Deal. The committee calls for Government to focus on job creation schemes rather than wage subsidies, in order to head off a potential rise in unemployment in 2021. The Government is also urged to fix the UK’s social infrastructure, by creating more social care workers and increasing investment in childcare.

 

Education

  • In the week to 3 December, 99.5% of state schools in England were fully open, a slight increase from 99.2% in the previous week, while attendance in all state schools rose slightly to 85.5%, from 83.5% in the previous week. The number of children attending early years settings fell to 795,000. As a snapshot, on 3 December, 63% of state-funded secondary schools and 22% of state-funded primary schools reported that they had one or more pupils self-isolating due to contact with a potential Covid-19 case within the school, both representing decreases on the previous week’s figures. Between 19 - 21% of schools had more than 30 pupils self-isolating due to contact with potential Covid-19 case within the school, a slight decrease on the previous week.
  • Colleges and secondary schools in Wales moved to online learning on Monday 14 December in order to try to halt the spread of Covid-19. The Welsh Government said that, although nearly 50% of schools in the principality have not had any Covid-19 cases since September, open education settings can contribute to wider social mixing. Wales will implement serial testing for all schools from January: pupils identified as close contacts of a Covid-19 case will be asked to self-isolate or take a rapid lateral flow test at the beginning of the school day. All school staff will be tested weekly.
  • Pupils in Kent, Essex and London will undergo mass testing, using new rapid lateral flow tests, as Covid-19 infection rates in 11-18 year-olds rise.
  • The leader of Greenwich Council has asked all schools in the borough to close from Monday 14 December (apart from for vulnerable children and for the children of key workers) due to the highest infection rates in Greenwich since March. Lessons will move online. This is in contravention of Department for Education direction, which has reportedly written to schools threatening legal action if they close early for Christmas due to Covid-19 concerns. 
  • A recent ONS pilot survey looking at Covid-19 and its effect on higher education students found that 57% of respondents reported a decrease in their mental health between September - November 2020. 29% reported being dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with their academic experience in the autumn term. An estimated 56% of students will return home for Christmas.
  • The Department for Education's Vulnerable Children and Young People Survey shows 3% of local authorities have more than 10% of social workers unavailable due to Covid-19, lower than the peak of 13% in May 2020. 23% of local authorities reported that 10% of their residential care workers were unavailable due to Covid-19. The total number of referrals in the first week of November was 12% lower than the usual number at that time of year, and the total number of children who started to be looked after since May 2020 is 29% lower than the same period over the past three years, suggesting that there may be under-reporting of vulnerable children.
  • 100 children and young people from Gypsy, Roma and Traveller communities will receive additional support from a new £400k fund, providing tutoring and catch up programmes to make up for lost time in education due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Students from these communities are likely to have been disproportionately affected by disruption to schooling this year, principally due to digital exclusion and poor access to public services.

 

 

Environment

  • The Local Government Association has published its Climate Change Survey 2020, which draws on insights from Directors of Environment or equivalent from councils in England – 29% of local authorities responded. Nine out of ten respondents had declared a climate emergency, and 80% of local authorities surveyed had officially set a goal of becoming carbon neutral. Eight out of ten councils who responded had been affected by a climate-related incident since 2015.

 

Equality and diversity

  • New Office for National Statistics analysis shows considerable differences in the levels of unpaid work between men and women, exacerbated by the national lockdowns. In March - April 2020, women typically spent 55% more time on unpaid childcare than men, and 44% more time on unpaid household work. This disparity increased by September - October this year, by which time women spent 99% more time on unpaid childcare than men, and 64% more time on unpaid household work. When paid work is included, women continue to do more work than men in total.

 

Health

  • NHS trusts have received a share of £600m to address maintenance backlogs, such as improving ventilation systems, upgrading electrical infrastructure and replacing lifts, with projects completed by March 2021. Cornwall Partnership NHS Foundation Trust has been allocated £102k for five projects, while Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust has received £1.7m for seven projects.

 

Housing

  • 2,000 of England’s councillors - 10% of the total number - have written to the Housing Secretary, Robert Jenrick MP, to express their concerns with the Government’s proposed reforms to the planning permission system. The councillors objected in particular to the new planning algorithm and the removal of the public’s right to be heard in person at local plan examinations.
  • A new £46m fund to provide more coordinated support for people with overlapping vulnerabilities has been launched: the Changing Futures Scheme. The Minister for Rough Sleeping and Housing has invited local organisations including councils, police and charities to form partnerships and bid for money to improve outcomes for multiply disadvantaged people with mental health needs and substance misuse issues, as well as those facing homelessness, domestic abuse and involvement with the criminal justice system.

 

Voluntary sector

  • The Children’s Minister has announced £4.4m in funding for Covid-19 response programmes run by large-scale children’s charities. A new National Centre for Family Hubs will improve access to family services across the country. 
  • Applications for a new Local Connections Fund of £4 are now open. Community groups can apply for the money, aimed at reducing loneliness resulting from Covid-19 restrictions.

 

Consultations

  • The Treasury is seeking views on how to tailor the prudential regulatory regime to support the unique features of the insurance sector and regulatory approach in the UK. Deadline 19 January 2021.
  • The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is asking for opinions on ending the export of live animals for slaughter and fattening in England and Wales, where the journeys begin in or transit through either region. Deadline 21 January 2021.    
  • The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government is seeking views on proposals to strengthen the regulation system for UK-registered architects and improve professional competence. Deadline 22 January 2021.   
  • The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is asking for opinions on their plans to reduce ammonia emissions in England by regulating the use or sale of solid urea fertilisers. Deadline 26 Jan 2021.
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