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Policy and Intelligence Newsletter - 1 December, 2020

The articles below have been drawn together by the policy and analytical community within the Council.

Covid-19

  • As of 29 November, a total of 3,706 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have tested positive for Covid-19. Over the last seven days, 257 people in the Duchy have tested positive, at a rate of 45 per 100,000 population: this contrasts with a rate of 176 per 100,000 people across the whole of England. A total of 164 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly have sadly died within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19. (Please note that fatality statistics are provided by Public Health England, and differ from those generated by the Office for National Statistics, which record all instances of Covid-19 being listed on the death certificate, even if there is no positive test result.)

 

  • The most recent Government Statistics on NHS Test and Trace (12 - 18 November) show that positive Covid-19 test results in England have declined compared to the previous week, with a decrease of 9% compared with 5 - 11 November. Turnaround times for in-person swab tests under Pillar 2 (for the general population) have improved in comparison to the previous week, with 79% of in-person test results now received the following day. 40% of the close contacts of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 were not reached by NHS contact tracers, roughly the same as the previous week.

 

  • The Government has published its Covid-19 Winter Plan, setting out changes to the tiered system of regional restrictions which will replace the national lockdown ending on 2 December. The “stay at home” requirement will end, although people in all tiers are asked to work from home where possible, probably until April 2021. Shops, gyms, personal care services and leisure will reopen. Collective worship, weddings and outdoor sports can resume if socially distanced. The “rule of six” for meeting outdoors will apply, replacing the ban on only meeting one person not from the same household or support bubble. Pubs and restaurants will continue to be closed, apart from takeaways, in Tier 3. Alcohol can only be served with a meal in Tier 2. Local authorities will not be negotiated with, and there will be no variation between regions in the same tier. Cornwall will be one of only three areas in Tier 1 (medium) when tiered Covid-19 restrictions come back into force on 2 December.

 

  • A relaxation to the tiered restrictions will apply to the whole country between 23 - 27 December. A maximum of three households can exclusively form a temporary “Christmas bubble”, and are allowed to meet in private homes, stay overnight and attend places of worship together. Travel throughout the UK to form the bubble will be allowed during this period.

 

  • England will change its 14-day quarantine rules for international arrivals not on the “travel corridor” list from 15 December. Passengers will be able to pay for a Covid-19 test after 5 days of isolation, with quarantine ending on a negative result.

 

  • A Cabinet Office policy paper titled Transmission Risk in the Hospitality Sector sets out four different types of evidence to support the conclusion that "hospitality venues are a significant risk for transmission". Impact analysis of restrictions in the UK and abroad suggests that the R number has only been consistently reduced below 1 where substantial limitations on hospitality venues have been implemented.

 

Brexit

  • A confidential Cabinet Office document, setting out the reasonable worst-case scenario for the UK economy in 2020 - 21 has been leaked to the media. The paper warns that there is a “notable risk” of simultaneously occurring crises including severe flooding, pandemic flu, Covid-19, co-ordinated industrial action and the end of the Brexit transition period. The briefing warns that supply chains are expected to be disrupted, while stockpiles have been reduced during 2020 and cannot easily be replenished. There are unlikely to be overall food shortages, but low-income groups “will be most at risk of food insecurity if there is a no-deal Brexit”.

 

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report accompanying last week’s Spending Review laid out the implications for the UK economy of leaving the EU. The impact of the deal currently being sought by the Government is forecast to see gross domestic product (GDP) 4% lower than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. If output is able to return to pre-pandemic levels once a vaccine is rolled out across the country, the impact of leaving the EU on the economy could be greater than that of Covid-19 in the long term. 

 

  • If a trade deal is not reached with the EU, the OBR projects another 2% drop in GDP in 2021. Other impacts from a no deal scenario include adding an additional 0.9% to the projected peak unemployment rate of 7.4% in July - September 2021. The OBR also estimates that the £6bn in additional annual tariff revenue accumulated from a no deal Brexit would be offset by the reduction of GDP, with borrowing forecast to be £11 - 12bn higher in the next three years.


Economy

  • The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak MP, set out his 2020 Spending Review on 25 November. A special edition of this newsletter covered the key points, and can be found here.

 

  • Latest statistics on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme show that, as of 30 September, 15,700 people in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly were furloughed, comprising 7% of the 227,000 jobs eligible for furlough.

 

  • A new report by debt charity Turn2Us has found that 4.2 million more people run out of money before their next paycheck, compared to before the pandemic started. 18 million people have had to take on debt since March. Financial resilience is particularly low in Universal Credit claimants, with 20% reporting that they always run out of money.

 

Education

  • In the week to 19 November, 99% of state schools across the country are open, a slight drop from 99.6% last week, while attendance in all state schools has dropped to 82.9%, from 86.5% last week. The number of children attending early years settings has risen to 806,000, compared to 801,000 last week. As a snapshot, on 19 November, 73% of state-funded secondary schools and 29% of state-funded primary schools reported that they had one or more pupils self-isolating due to contact with a potential Covid-19 case within the school. Also on 19 November, 25 - 27% of state funded schools had 30 or more pupils self-isolating due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus inside the school.


Environment

  • Cornwall Council is one of 55 local authorities to have successfully bid for a share of £74m under the Government’s Green Homes Grant Local Authority Delivery scheme. The funding will support making homes for low-income families more environmentally friendly, including the installation of loft and underfloor insulation, low carbon technologies and solar panels. Details of the funding allocations have not yet been published.

 

Transport

  • Development funding has been awarded to a “Mid Cornwall Metro” railway project, aiming to create a coast-to-coast service connecting Newquay, Par, St Austell, Truro, Penryn and Falmouth.

 

Voluntary Sector

  • New research from a consortium of universities is exploring how local authorities and community partners are tackling social action and partnership during the Covid-19 pandemic. As part of the “MOVE” project (“mobilising volunteers effectively”), the universities of Sheffield, Hull and Leeds have been examining how to understand, scale and maximise the effectiveness of volunteer responses to Covid-19. The way that local authorities and their community partners have been managing challenges through the pandemic is a key component of the research, which has incorporated findings from stakeholder interviews. The report identifies potential post-Covid-19 models of social action and community partnership, offering some reflections for local authorities wishing to add to the lessons they have learned from the pandemic.  

 

Consultations and Campaigns

  • The Maritime and Coastguard Agency requests comments on the proposed revision of MGN 630, which amends the process for existing vessels to demonstrate that they can legitimately register as a fishing vessel. Deadline 13 December 2020.

 

  • The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on the proposed 2021 - 22 budgets and levies for the Low Carbon Contracts Company and the Electricity Settlements Company. Deadline 14 December 2020.

 

  • The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government is seeking views on the implementation of a new model for shared ownership that reduces the minimum share from 25% to 10%. Deadline 17 December 2020.

 

  • The Department for Transport invites responses to an independent review, led by Sir Peter Hendy, on how transport can support economic growth and quality of life across the UK. Deadline 30 December 2020. 

 

  • The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy is seeking views on proposals around raising energy performance standards for the domestic private rented sector in England and Wales. Deadline 30 December 2020. 
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