Intelligence Newsletter - 18 August, 2020

Local News

• The BBC reports that some restaurants and pubs are withdrawing from the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme due to the negative effects it has caused for them. Owners of these venues say the additional demand for services on the days the scheme is in operation have caused staff to be on the receiving end of negative behaviour from customers, which has caused a lot of strain on staff.

National News

Health and Wellbeing

• The LGA, representing councils across the country, is encouraging all parents to check their children are up to date with their routine vaccinations. They are concerned that vaccination programmes have been disrupted by COVID-19 and many children will have missed out. They said, “failure to vaccinate children today could lead to avoidable consequences in the long term”.
• The ONS have published an investigation into any potential link between long term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality rates in England. They conclude that the link has a smaller effect in England than has been found in previous studies in other countries. The link between early COVID-19 deaths and exposure to dirty air was partly down to the outbreak in London. As the virus spread across the country and deaths became more evenly distributed, the correlation decreased.
• The NHS Confederation have published a new report called “Mental Health Services and COVID-19: Preparing for the rising tide”. It looks at how mental health services have adapted to the pandemic and the expected rise in demand for mental health services and support as a result of the pandemic, continuing into the future. They believe this will have serious implications on resourcing and staff wellbeing. They consider how services should prepare for the rise in demand and how services should be planned and delivered.
• A YouGov poll has found that four out of five healthcare workers expect a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. Only 9% believed a second outbreak was unlikely. 25% of NHS workers who need PPE were still saying they lacked adequate equipment at the end of June. 31% of NHS workers said it was fairly or very likely that they will contract coronavirus in their workplace.

Economy

In their Economy, business and jobs Coronavirus roundup for August, the ONS has said that:

• The biggest fall in quarterly GDP on record occurred in quarter 2 (April to June 2020) at 20.4%. However, GDP grew by 8.7% in June.
  • The economy began to bounce back in June; the volume of retail sales increased by 13.9% (June compared with May) as non-essential shops were allowed to reopen.
  • 90% of businesses who responded to their Business Impact of COVID-19 survey said they had been trading for ore than the previous two weeks (surveys taken 13 to 26 July), up from 86% the previous week.
  • Labour productivity (output per hour) fell by 2.5%, the largest fall since estimates began
  • Total actual weekly hours fell by 18.4% between quarter one and quarter two of 2020.
  • Early indicators for July suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down by 730,000 compared with March.
  • Public sector borrowing for April to June 2020 reached £127.9 billion, which is more that double that borrowed in the whole 2019/20 financial year.
  • Central Government receipts for June 2020 were 16.5% lower than June 2019 as Government coronavirus policies begin to take effect.
  • 29% of businesses trading in July said their operating costs exceed or were equal to their turnover.

Society and Social Welfare

• In their Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (covering 5-9 August) the ONS asked people about whether they were likely to go on holiday this year. 28% of adults said they were likely to go on holiday in the UK this year and 9% said they would likely go on a holiday abroad. Although no directly comparable, data from ABTA shows that in 2019 64% of people took a foreign holiday and 72% holidayed in the UK. A third of people said their household would not be able to afford a week’s holiday away from home. People were also less likely to travel if they knew that they would have to self-isolate for 14 days on their return.
•  A YouGov poll from 4 – 5 August shows the UK’s current voting intentions. It reveals a slight downturn in Conservative voting (43% to 42%) and a slight upturn in favour of voting for Labour (from 35% to 36%). Liberal Democrats are also up from 6% to 8%, the Greens vote remains the same and a slight reduction from 3% to 2% for the Brexit Party. In terms of who would make the best Prime Minister however, Sir Kier Starmer has outpolled Boris Johnson with 34% of the vote, compared to Johnson’s 32%. A third of Britons still cannot decide between the two. The graph below shows the time series for voting intention results.
• The Children’s Commissioner has published a report setting out the key actions needed to ensure that children are at the heart of planning for future lockdowns. The report: ‘Putting children first in future lockdowns’, lists ten key principles that need to be considered when planning a future public health response. The report says that, “Schools and early years settings should be kept open wherever possible. They should be the last places that are locked down, after pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops.”
• The ONS has published a report into the implications of childlessness among tomorrow’s older people.  Our population is ageing because of declining fertility and an increase in life expectancy. One of the implications of this is the demand for paid-for care is likely to increase as adult children are the most common providers of informal social care to their parents when they reach old age.

Housing

• A report published by the Salvation Army outlines how homelessness and rough sleeping will increase if the Government does not provide adequate funding for local authorities to support those who are homeless or at risk of becoming so. The report offers solutions to help sustain the progress made in recent months. They also say that “Not only would this protect thousands of vulnerable people but investing in homelessness now will avoid spiralling costs in the future”.
• The LGiU reports on a new planning white paper has been published which contains radical proposals to change the way that housebuilding and other development is controlled in England. It has been strongly criticised by local authorities and planning professionals. The proposals will make it easier for developers to build without applying to councils for consent. Local government leaders have pointed out that about 90% of applications are approved by councils and that delays are mainly down to developers and that this is a loss of local control, which would “deprive communities of the ability to define the area they live in.” (you will need to set up a free LGiU account to view this article).

Environment

• The BBC reports that a University of Leeds study shows that the dramatic drop in greenhouse gases and air pollutants seen during the global lockdown will have little impact on global warming. The data suggests that by 2030, global temperatures will only be 0.01 ⁰C lower than expected. They stress that the nature of the recovery could alter this outlook though and that action could still keep the world from exceeding 1.5⁰C warming by the middle of the century.