Intelligence Newsletter - 11 August, 2020

Local Impact

• The Times reports that, nationwide, road traffic has now exceeded pre-lockdown measures with cars and vans being 14% higher. By using local data, at the end of July in Cornwall, whilst some main areas in mid-Cornwall have seen averaged traffic levels lower than pre lockdown, overall traffic levels are 7% above pre-lockdown levels. During the isolation period of lockdown, Cornwall’s traffic levels dropped to under 35% of the normal traffic levels.

Economy 

• RNLI has reported that the Cornish beaches are the busiest that they ‘have ever seen’. Most notably, the RNLI continues, is Perranporth beach that recorded 14,000 beachgoers last Thursday (30^th July). There are worries that the RNLI will struggle to keep up with the number of tourists that are visiting Cornwall’s beaches if the number of visitors continue at this level.
• Newly published data by the ONS for COVID-19 business rates reliefs by all Local Authorities in England shows Cornwall is the 12^th highest in terms of the total estimated value of reliefs to be provided to businesses in 2020/21 under the expanded retail discount scheme (£97,661,779). Cornwall ranks 3^rd highest for the estimated number of non-domestic businesses that are eligible for the expanded retail discount, and 4^thhighest for the estimated number of non-domestic businesses eligible for the nursey discount. 
  • Following this, new data was also released for Business Grant Funding showing that as at the 5 July, Cornwall Council had paid out the most grants and to more businesses than any other Local Authority in England from the Small Business Grant Fund (SBGF) and Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Grant Fund (RHLGF). 15,937 business had received a grant from the SBGF (£159,370,000), with 4,467 business receiving a grant from the RHLF (£72,285,000).
  • Furthermore, the data showed that as at 5 July, Cornwall had also paid out £11,020,000 from the Local Authority Discretionary Grant Fund (LADGF) – more than any other Local Authority in England and nearly double that of the authority who had paid out the second highest amount.  
• The government is urging rural communities to apply for gigabit-capable broadband scheme, which is targeted at rural, hard to reach areas.
• CCN have published a new report highlighting the most economically vulnerable areas in England. Surmised by Julian German, the report shows that the narrow focus on the ‘Red Wall’ areas  such as Cumbria (62% of all jobs), Derbyshire (60%) and Durham (60%) does not highlight other areas, such as Cornwall (60%) who have an above national average for jobs in sectors with a heavy reliance on tourism and retail. The report also emphasises that 46% of the country’s entire furlough workforce are in county areas, with Cornwall having the highest proportion at 35.1%. The report goes on to show that counties are the most vulnerable to economic impact, with 53% of counties workforce are in ‘at risk’ sectors, with core cities at 44%.

National 

• Less than half of England’s population understand the current lockdown rules, according to a UCL study. Whilst Scotland and Wales populace have a higher understanding, it has also fallen to levels of 75% and 61%. Further, access to healthcare has also fallen – 1 in 10 people across the UK are unable to speak with a GP; 1 in 20 people were unable to speak to a mental health professional.

Economy

• The LGA have reported that local economies could miss out on more than £1 billion in emergency COVID-19 funding if the Government goes ahead with plans to close business support schemes. The funds include the Small Business Grants, Retail Hospitality, Leisure Business Grants Fund and Discretionary Grants Fund – all of which were introduced at the beginning of Lockdown. Any of the remaining funds, which the LGA estimates to be around £1.37 billion, will be returned to the Government at the end of August.
• The Rural Services Network have published an updated list of current funds available to businesses and residents currently struggling during Covid.
• The ONS have published statistics showing the impact of Parenting during Lockdown. During lockdown, parents were nearly twice as likely to be furloughed as those without children. Additionally, parents that work the traditional 9-5 roles are likely to be working during unsociable hours.

• Additionally, during lockdown parents spent more time on developmental childcare, when compared to 2014/15 data. The analysis shows that developmental childcare has increased by 40 minutes, with non-developmental children decreasing by 20 minutes across all days. Directable comparable analysis that shows parents founds developmental childcare more enjoyable that other domestic chores.

• New analysis by the ONS shows that ‘workers who earn more tend to work in jobs with more scope for homeworking’. Employees earning salaries with a median of £44.08 an hour are among those most able to work remotely. Men are least likely to be able to work from home.

• A new report from Citizens Advices shows that those with care responsibilities or disabled employees are more likely to be made redundant. The survey ran by Citizens Advice, shows that 1 in 4 disabled people were facing redundancy, which rose to 37% for those that said ‘their disability had a large impact on their day to day life’; half of those reported were in the shielded group and 2 in 5 parents or carers (39%) were also facing loss of jobs. Citizens Advice also runs a 1 to 1 session for some issues, redundancies solutions included; during the pandemic the Charity reports that these services have increased by almost seven-fold, with frontline advisers dealing with a redundancy issue ‘every two minutes’.
• Bank of England is predicting unemployment will significantly increase once the Furlough Scheme has ended. The BoF has predicted the unemployment rate could reach 7.5%, with most employments being ‘very significantly mitigated’ by government schemes. However, the Bank of England Governor has backed the government’s decision to ends it furlough scheme in October.   
• Research by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) suggests that one in three UK employers are expected to make staff redundant between July and September. This is a 50% increase compared to three months so. The research is broken down to private and public sector, showing a 38% and 16% respectively.

Social Care and Wellbeing 

• Some Local Authorities have set up their own Track and Trace models, after worries that the Government’s national scheme is missing vulnerable people. Blackburn with Darwen council have their own models, after raising concerns that the Governments scheme was ‘simply not tracing enough cases and contacts fast enough’. This comes after reports that people won’t answer the NHS number 0300 due to cold caller worries.
• New data shows that lockdown easing did not lead to a rise in COVID infections in England. The survey shows that community level infection did not rise once primary schools returned and non-essential shops reopened. In fact, the community prevalence, according to ICL, fell after lockdown measures were relaxed.
• The proportion of adults who are leaving homes to work or shop with a face covering has continued to grow since the beginning of June. Between 29^th July and the 2^nd August 96% wore a face covering both their mouth and nose.
• Birmingham University, Sheffield University and Carers UK have published a new study that shows unpaid carers, who are seeking mental or physical health support during lockdown, were unable to get any help. The research shows that over half, (58%) of carers looking after someone outside of their own home were unable to get through to NHS 111. For the general public, only 33% were unable to get through. Further, the data shows that 89% of carers saw their NHS treatments cancelled or postponed – again compared to 77% for the general public.  
• Post-menopausal women have a high risk of developing severe COVID symptoms. The KCL study found that ‘high levels of estrogen may have a protective affect against the novel coronavirus’. This is due to the hormone reacting differently to responding to the infection. The study shows that women aged 45-50 were most likely to be at risk; with women using the combined oral contraceptive pill having a lower rate of COVID and reduced symptoms.

Crime

• The Rural Services Network has reported that rural crime has risen to £53million – its highest level for eight years. Over the last 12 months, rural crime is up almost 9% with high value machinery, such as tractors and quads, being the main targets. Livestock crime, mainly lambs, have also increased by nearly 15%. The biggest monetary impacts are seen in the Midlands (£10.6m) with the South West reporting £6.6m lost, which is a 14% increase from 2019. NFU published data shows that Scotland had the biggest percentage increased at 44%, with the Northeast at the lowest with 0.4%. The worst affected Local Authority for total cost was Lincolnshire, with Northamptonshire having the biggest percentage change of 134%. Cornwall did not feature on the published list.

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