Intelligence Bulletin - 7th July

NATIONAL IMPACT  

ECONOMIC   

• The LGA has announced that the Covid funding gap has reached £7.4bn. In June, the financial return showed councils incurred £4.8bn in extra costs. The association also now estimates that the total cost to councils – without government or organisational aid - will reach £10.9bn. 

• The LGA have published a ‘Sustainable Future’s: Community Wealth Building’ discussion paper that looks at addressing ‘external leakage’ to locally generated wealth.  The model proposed is a holistic approach to building wealth for the people, rather than having the wealth taken out of the area. It argues that it will boost local economic development. The paper builds from examples already practising this model within the UK, such as a worker owned wholesale co-operative in Glasgow or a community land trust in Kintyre, West Scotland. The study largely justifies itself by introducing its context with ‘the richest 6 individuals have a combined fortune equal to that of the 13 million poorest’ in Britain. It also highlights that the UK and the US have already undertaken a form of community wealth development, but stresses that it needs to be further refined. 

• An IPRR study argues that even a ‘full blown economic recovery’ in the UK will not resolve the ‘structural youth unemployment problem’. The report argues that countries where there are vocational schemes into employment is as ‘clear as an academic route’, but the courses need to be high quality as well. The report highlights that unemployment in youth has decreased over the past few years, yet there are still 868,000 still unemployed; 247,000 have been unemployed for more than a year. Further, nearly a million are classified as NEET (Not in education, employment or training). The report has 3 key recommendations: 
  • ‘Every secondary school should be required to appoint a full-time Careers Officer responsible for careers education and guidance and for liaison with local employers;
  • Careers guidance – and some careers education – should be provided by specialist advisers, not teachers; and,
  • Careers advisers should be responsible for getting local employers more involved in schools and for providing students with up-to-date information on education and training options and on opportunities in the local labour market’.

• A group of ex-treasury advisors have called for an overhaul of the Council Tax system. They argue that the reformation could boost the economy post-Covid. Their think tank, Onward, has released a publication Bounce Bank  which suggests that Covid has presented a unique opportunity, and that the economic response must reflect the uniqueness of the situation. The answer, the report argues, is to not just right the economy after Covid but to instead rehabilitate it and improve upon those measures. The recommendations are based on four specific areas (public finances, corporate debt, jobs and skills) with each outlining problems and Onwards recommendations.

• Nurseries in the most deprived areas are most at risk from closure, a report from Sutton Trust says. It states that 34% of early years providers in the most deprived areas are unsure about their future, compared to 24% in the least deprived areas. The report, found here, reports that not only are nurseries being impact already but the future of them are also in doubt. Sutton Trust reports that 42% of nurseries in deprived areas are likely to make redundancies. Key findings also include vulnerable and SEND children will suffer the most, and their families will struggle financially but ‘most likely dropped off the radar without regular attendance at their provider’. The study also highlights the mental and physical health of those children that have not attended a provider since lockdown.  

• IFS has warned that 13 universities could ‘go bust’ without a bailout. The study examines the resilience of universities in light of Covid and estimates that losses could be anywhere between £3 billion and £19 billion. A significant amount of this is the downturn of international students not coming to UK universities due to covid concerns. As such, those with a high enrolment of international students and those with substantial pension obligations will be affected the most. Yet, the study does highlight that universities with high domestic enrolments will also be affected especially if those of the former become less selective of students and enrol more domestic based students. IFS also reports that there is a significant public health response required to aid universities. The study talks about 3 scenarios that the IFS believe could happen, and the repercussions of each.    

• A lead economist believes that Leicester was vulnerable to a city outbreak, and it was only a matter of time. Edward Cartwright, Professor of economics at De Montford University, states that the high levels of poverty was an ‘ideal breeding ground’ for Covid. In The Conversation, Cartwright emphasises that Leicester is the 32rd most deprived local authority in England, where 41% of the children live in poverty. Due to this, Cartwright argues that workers are more likely desperate for money and will undertake any job – with or without symptoms. With that, and the housing in Leicester being crowded and with a high number of occupancies per households, Covid is easily spread. Further, with the decreasing confidence levels in businesses and consumers in Leicester, Cartwright hypothesises that this will inevitably lead to more deprivation and poverty – turning into an unbreakable loop.  

• In Switzerland there has been a dramatic change in expenditure locations: cities have been hit hardest. The analysis shows that peripheral commuting areas, i.e. rural areas, have actually benefitted from lockdown. In some regions expenditure has been higher than pre-covid. This analysis has been based on Direct Debit payments, which has shown that expenditures are ‘spreading out’. Cities have shown a weak recovery post lockdown, yet more rural area’s seem to have recovered a lot quicker than expected.  

HEALTH AND SOCIAL 

• The Association of Directors for Adult Services (ADASS) has released a report on the impact of Covid on adult social care services and its finances in England. The report starts with the Adult Social Care service were ‘rendered ill equipped and under resourced… by the failure of successive governments of al political colours to recognise how essential social care is’. It rapidly evaluates three main areas (care home deaths, health in equalities and the discriminatory affect Covid has had on vulnerable people, and the courage of the staff in their continued support.  There are a range of recommendations provided from this report including a call for more, and better managed, Covid testing – particularly for those leaving hospital and more funding to help care homes continue.  

• A recent study estimates that more than half of care homes (58%) reported at least 1 Covid-19 case. The study also showed that for each additional member of infected staff, the odds of infection for residents increased by 11%. Care home using bank or agency staff most or every day are more likely to have more residents with Covid. This is when compared to care homes that do not use bank or agency staff. Further, it is shown that care homes that provide sick leave pay are less likely to have Covid cases in residents. Again compared to care homes that do not pay for sick leave.  

• New data shows that 2 in 3 victims of Covid has an existing disability. There are calls for an immediate public inquiry.  

• ONS have released an interactive map showing the number of over 70’s living with younger people. ONS argue one of the biggest challenges for this age group will be when the younger generations go back to work, and the repercussions from bringing Covid back or isolation of those they have left. In Cornwall, these area’s are limited (maximum of 9% in any one LSOA area), and are mainly situated around built up areas.  

• A Which? Survey has shown that more than ¼ of vulnerable people are still struggling to get basic essentials. Which? warn that this may lead to people starving. The study, found here, also reports that those most at risk of not accessing food have learning difficulties or are visually impaired. Further, the study found:  
  • 29% of clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) had faced recent difficulties in getting food; 
  • 40% of people that need support but are not CEV, struggled to get food the week before;  
  • 14% of those deemed CEV were having to go to the shops themselves to get food.  

• Public Health England has released a study on the disparities of risk and outcomes of Covid-19. It summaries that Covid has replicated existing health inequalities, and in some cases, also increased them. The study reports that the largest disparity was age (80 or older were seven times more likely to die compared to those 40 or below). It also identifies geographical disparities showing that Urban local authorities had the highest diagnosis’ and deaths. Illustratively, London had three time more Covid cases than the South West. The data set is available here. 

• The number of girls and women needing free sanitary products has significantly risen since lockdown. Charity, Bloody Good Period, reports that its normal distribution of 5,000 packs has nearly quadrupled to 23,000 over the last three months. The Governments scheme, that initiated in Janurary 2020, to give out free period products in schools is still in operation. The Charity highlights that those on the poverty line before covid have been significantly impacted as ‘if you can’t buy food, your priority is not going to be getting  period product’.  

• Deliveroo in Scotland have trained their riders to spot signs of child abuse. This has been formed in partnership with NSPCC. This was after a case of child neglect was reported by one of the riders, earlier this year. In their statement, Deliveroo state that ‘community can play an important role in keeping children safe and spotting possible signs of child abuse, neglect and domestic violence’.  

• Officials are lobbying for an online dashboard will reveal to local Covid cases. Following the practises from other countries, officials believe the dashboard will help minimise the chaos exhibited by the Leicester lockdown. The lobbying is centralised around the request to have covid case data public, to a postcode level. This would then allow proactive action by the public to inhibit the further break of covid.  

• Further to the above, the Government have announced that Local authorities will be given access to Postcode Level data. This comes after Leicester’s outbreak with the hopes that it will help contain lower levels of local outbreaks.  

• Two thirds of the public want the track and trace system in the hands of local public health teams. The research shows 67% of people surveyed want the system managed in the public sector. The survey, conducted by We own it, also found that only 15% of respondents wanted the system handled by a private company. Further analysis about the system can be found here.  

HOUSING 

• A Saville’s report suggests that only 39% of 35 year olds born in 1990 will own their own house. This in stark contrast to the 65% of those born in 1960 and 1970. Currently the government, and other agencies, are warning of a housing crisis – even more emphasised by Covids impact on the economy.  

• Shelter has said that up to 227,000 adult renters are facing eviction once the ban is removed. Entitled ‘Covid-eviction’, the charity warns that 174,000 private renters have already been threatened with eviction.  

• Shelter is reporting that over 80,000 new homes will be lost to Covid repercussions. As such, they also estimate that 116,000 construction jobs will be lost. Saville’s data modelling for worst and best case scenario can be found here.  

• The average asking price of a house has increased by 1.9% with record numbers of owners asking for evaluations, according to Rightmove. Further, the number of viewings booked has also hit a daily record – 40% higher than in early March. The demand for bungalows have also ‘gone through the roof’.  

ENVIRONMENT 

• Edinburgh and Glasgow have started offering free bike hire as lockdown is eased. It is the hope that this will ease pressure on public transport services, and provide a cleaner alternative.  

Webinars  

• International migration in a rapidly changing world - Tue, July 28, 2020 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM BST 
  • An ONS led webinar looking at migratory patterns across the UK and the impacts the suspension of the International passenger survey in March will have on future analysis. Key topics also include: an update on our move to administrative based migration estimates (ABME), our recent travel insights analysis to understand migration during COVID-19 and future analysis and insights plans and our long-term transformation plans. 

• GDPR two years on: how has data protection changed? – 7th July, 2020 11:00AM 
  • Since GDPR legislation finally passed into law in May 2018, the number of personal data breaches reported to the ICO has shot up, and the regulator has used its increased powers to levy some huge punishments. But is our information actually any safer?