Intelligence Bulletin - 27th May, 2020

Cornwall  

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• This page provides constituency statistics on Universal Credit in Great Britain, including our estimate of how far caseload rollout has progressed to date. 

SOCIO-CULTURAL IMPACT 

• The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 561 as at 18th May which is a rate of 98.7 per 100,000. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (80.6), North East Lincolnshire (92.6) and Dorset (93.5) have lower rates.  
• 174 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 8th May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period. 
• Analysis by the University of St. Andrews reveals that the Welsh, Gaelic- and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK. If the pandemic is to last long and the virus is to spread to all areas of the UK, remote small towns and rural communities are projected to have 50 to 80% higher death rates than the main cities because of their old population composition.  
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  • Data collated by OCSI shows that March to April saw the largest single monthly increase in recorded unemployment – 850,000 new claimants across the UK (an increase of 66%). The increase is widespread, with every Local Authority in the UK seeing unemployment rise by more than one-third; and 76 of the 379 Local Authorities in the UK seeing their unemployment rate more than double in a single month. Local Authorities with seaside resorts see largest rise in unemployment rates, incl. the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall. 

NATIONAL IMPACT 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• Parliamentary briefing states that the UK economy is in recession, with indications that the decline in GDP in 2020 will be the largest in the post-War era (when current data records began). The public finances will be significantly affected by the economic shock of the coronavirus outbreak. The Government’s budget deficit will increase as tax revenues fall and government spending increases. Government debt will, therefore, increase. At this stage no one can say by how much. 
• Parliamentary briefing on the Covid-19 impact on the labour market shows that there were 637,000 job vacancies in February-April 2020, 170,000 less than the previous quarter and down 210,000 from the year before. Forecasted unemployment rates vary, but all the forecasters below predict a significant increase.  In their coronavirus reference scenario, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have predicted the unemployment rate may rise to 10%. 
• This page provides constituency-level data on people claiming unemployment benefits, expressing the data both as the number of claimants and as a proportion of residents aged 16-64. 
• New figures on the UK-wide government support schemes for individuals and businesses show that:  
  • 8 million jobs have now been furloughed with £11.1 billion claimed so far through the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) 
  • 2 million Self-employment Income Support (SEISS) claims have been submitted worth £6.1 billion 
  • Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) has seen 464,393 approved loans so far worth £14.18 billion 
  • Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) has seen 40,564 loans worth £7.25 billion approved so far the Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CLBILS) has seen 86 approved loans totalling £0.59 billion. 
• According to Citizens’ Advice, over 2m people behind on council tax bills due to Covid-19.  
• As the construction sector has gone back to work, new figures show that planning applications of all types fell on average by 3.5 per cent in March and 18.5 per cent in April in England and Wales. Applications related to advertising have been hardest hit, with a 60 per cent decline. Applications related to telecoms infrastructure are up, demonstrating the continuing investment in 5G networks in particular. 
• ONS data shows that the volume of retail sales in April 2020 fell by a record 18.1%, following the strong monthly fall of 5.2% in March 2020. All sectors saw a monthly decline in volume sales except for a record increase in sales for non-store retailing at 18.0% and a continued increase in sales for alcohol stores at 2.3%. 
• ONS data also shows that of the 32.6 million in employment, around 1.7 million people reported working mainly from home, with around 4.0 million working from home in the week prior to being interviewed for the survey. Around 8.7 million people said that they have worked from home; this is less than 30% of the workforce. 
• UK2070 Commission argues that Covid-19 has exposed regional disparities in health inequalities and economic disadvantage, and risks widening them if the policy response is not sensitive to place. 
• Research by the Centre for Progressive Policy suggests that, as a result of the Covid response, the UK’s productivity crisis will deepen, with 76% of local authorities will not recover their expected level of output based on the pre-crisis trend after five years. Nearly 50% of Red Wall and 40% of Towns Fund local authorities are vulnerable places (places at particular risk of a prolonged economic recovery), compared to 23% across the UK as a whole. 
• Vulnerable places and people will fall further behind:  
  • Output in the twenty most vulnerable will be an average of 18% below the expected level based on the pre-crisis trend after five years;
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    average earnings in the twenty poorest local authorities will fall from £18,600 per annum to £17,300 in real terms in the three years after lockdown. 

• In 2018-2019 the Trussell Trust supplied 1,583,668 three-day emergency food parcels, an increase of 18.8% on the previous year. Around a third of these – more than half a million – went to children. In the graph below, it is important not to confuse food parcel figures with the number of people accessing them.  

• A specially-designed online survey of over 4,000 parents in England between 29 April and 12 May shows that children from better-off households are spending 30% more time each day on educational activities than are children from the poorest fifth of households. 
• Suicide attempts by elderly people have increased as much as six-fold during the coronavirus crisis because of depression and anxiety from their social isolation, says the Royal College of Psychiatrists. 

SOCIAL IMPACT 

• ONS data shows that across Great Britain, 80% of adults were worried about the effect that the coronavirus (COVID-19) was having on their life; this varied from 76% in the East Midlands and in Scotland, to 87% in the North East. We found those aged 16 to 34 years in the North East were particularly worried. In London, three out of every five workers said that they worked from home in April 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic; this was higher than the other countries and regions, with workers in the East of England and East Midlands being least likely to work from home. 
• Four in five workers are think returning to work will put their family at risk, a GMB survey has revealed. 
• ONS data also shows that the most common impact of the coronavirus on people’s lives this week is a lack of freedom and independence, with nearly 2 in 3 adults (65%) saying this was impacting them. Around 8 in 10 adults (80%) said they had enough information to protect themselves; a decrease on recent weeks and a similar level to the start of lockdown measures. Around 1 in 7 (14%) adults had not left their home over the past seven days; for those with an underlying health condition, 1 in 3 (33%) had not left their home. 

FURTHER INFORMATION AND SOURCES 

• Public Health England (PHE) in collaboration with the Local Government Association (LGA), Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH), and NHS England and NHS Improvement, have collated a suite of resources relating to health inequalities and COVID-19 to support place-based approaches to planning and responding to the pandemic, while mitigating against potential impacts on those with the poorest health outcomes. 

COVID-19 and ethnicity – webinar, Tuesday 2 June 2020, 9.30am-11.00am 

WEBINAR: Creating a Collaborative and Confident Place: recovery and reset after Covid, Thursday 4 June, 10:00