Intelligence Bulletin - 1st July, 2020

Local Impact  

•  The Economic Growth Service at Cornwall Council have released a Labour Market Stress Composite that breaks down individuals accessing support schemes across CIOS.  
  • 68,500 individuals have accessed the Covid Job Retention Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top quarter of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
  • 29,200 individuals have accessed the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top 10 of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
  • 47,682 individuals received Universal Credit (as of 14th May), an increase of 91.5% when compared to March 2020. Cornwall is ranked 45 out of the 149 local authorities for increases to UC claimants. All 149 authorities have received some increase in this period. Hartlepool, sitting at 149th, has seen a 32% increase in claimants. Surrey County sits 1st with an increase of 135.8%;  
  • 1,822 individuals received Job seekers allowance as of 14th May.  
  • 54% of our economically active population are accessing support (top is Blackpool with 67% and lowest Westminster and City of London 30%).  

National Impact  

ECONOMIC IMPACT  

•  The LGA have examined inclusive economies, particularly reflecting on the importance of understanding local economies and the role of local government within them.  There is general agreement that building inclusive economies must: 
  • address inequalities; 
  • address exclusion and poverty; 
  • benefit the economy as well as being  an end in itself; 
  • focus on the nature of the economy – rather than just redistributing the gains of growth through taxes and benefits (IGAU 2019). 
     This extensive study includes a literature review and 15 stakeholder interviews which looked at how inclusive growth can be pursued by councils at three different stages. It concludes by recognising the financial hardships that local councils have had and emphasises that Covid offers a unique opportunity for major change. 
     
• An LGA study into the changing roles of strategic centres looks at the acceleration Covid has caused to the shift to online shopping. The study looks at the potential long-term impact from this shift and the role local government has to play. It considers areas such as population changes, online expenditure and changes in work routines. The study concludes with key areas for consideration by local authorities. These include:  
  • Re-considering per capita centre floorspace requirements; 
  • Considering to rezone to support more smaller, more sustainable centres; 
  • Considering a mixed use as a way of attracting activity to centres;
  • Consider ways to enhance access to centres; 
  • To consider investment in public spaces; and,  
  • Consider new approaches to centre activation. 
•  A Centre for Progressive Policy has found that 8 in 10 councils will struggle to meet Covid costs. This is despite Government funding since the crisis started. It argues that the government is yet to reach its full potential for financial support to local authorities.  The paper cites the LGA stating that £6bn is likely to be needed this year by councils. The paper also highlights that the most deprived areas will suffer the most. CPP attribute this to the existing financial gap of per capita funding enlarging, whilst further struggling to pay council and business rates.  
•  Citizens Advice reports that nearly 1.4million migrants do not have access to welfare benefits. Those seeking advice ‘mirrors national data demonstrating the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on people of colour’. 82% of Citizens Advice client’s enquiries regarding this were from people of colour. Citizens Advice therefore recommended four changes for the Government:  
  • The No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) restriction for those subject to immigration control should be temporarily suspended; 
  • The Habitual Residence Test (HRT) should be temporarily suspended from the application process for benefits;
  • The minimum income requirement (of at least £18,600 per year) and the maintenance and accommodation requirements should be temporarily suspended for all those renewing family visas;
  • All those on a 5-year route to settlement whose income has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic should not be moved onto a 10-year route because they cannot show minimum income. 
• Over 1.3 million households are likely to have built up council tax arrears due to Covid. Following legislation changes on the 24 June that ends the ban on collections via bailiffs, Citizens Advice reports that carers and those shielding will be hit the hardest.  ‘People who are behind on their council tax because of Covid-19 are twice as likely to have been shielding or at increased risk of the virus’. They are also four times more likely to be caring for older family members. The article reports that LGA figures show over £500m of council tax has gone unpaid. Citizens Advice call on the Government to review council tax measures and implement ‘simple changes’ to help.  They call for more flexibility to recover debts outside of court proceedings.  
• A UCL study states that adults in the lowest socio-economic group have been financially hit the hardest. The study suggests that this group is nine times more likely to struggle with bills than higher socio-economic groups. The study argues that the lowest group were 7.2 times more likely to be unable to pay bills in week 1. This rose to 8.7 in week 3. Food bills are also a struggle and shows that the group were 4.1 times more unlikely to be able to buy sufficient food in week 1. UCL highlights that whilst communities have got closer and stronger, the pandemic has also exposed and widened health inequalities within societies.  
• An LSE Paper discusses the impact that Covid will have on political trust. It concludes that young people who have been exposed to an epidemic will have less trust in political institutions for the rest of their lives. Specifically, those exposed to epidemics aged 18-25 have less confidence in political leaders, governments and elections. The research has also found that life-long distrust is mainly for democratic countries only. It is not the same for autocratic countries. This may be due to more pro-active involvement in democracies and expectations that leaders should be more responsive to citizen concerns. It may also be due to democracies struggling to keep a consistent message.  
• A study has been released looking at high streets and their come back. The study looks at city and town centres, using Grimsby as an example, suggesting areas for revitalisation. The model focuses on taking central power from Government and putting it back into local communities. It outlines recommendations on environmental impacts, devolution, taxation, property and transport. The report analyses the cultural shift pre-covid in line with a ‘required radical shift’ in local planning post covid. 
  

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE   

• A new study warns that a mental health crisis is around the corner. The LGA has compared the mental health trends and outcomes from some of the biggest economic disasters in recent years. It states that if such trends were to be followed, Covid may have the biggest impact of all. The LGA emphasises that whilst mental health services will prepare, there needs to be a ‘community’ recovery response. This response needs to ensure resilience for future incidents. Consequentially to the pandemic, the LGA argues that local authorities need to understand and mitigate against the mental health implications for services and policies in their responses to the economic fall out.  
• New data from the ONS shows mental health concerns within the Shielding Cohort. More than one-third (37%) of people asked to shield report a worsening in their mental health. This rises to around half (49%) among 50- to 59-year-olds, compared with 26% for those aged 75 years and over. Clinically extremely vulnerable females report worsening mental health than males, no matter their age band.  
• There have been some positive mental health outcomes from this epidemic. 56% of a lifestyle survey respondents said that they were now able to spend more quality time with people they lived with.  While 50% were enjoying a slower pace of life. 47% preferred that they were spending less time travelling. Almost all (96%) of respondents are exercising more and want this to continue in recovery.  
• Early data from The University of Bristol shows that anxiety levels have doubled in young people. During lockdown, anxiety levels have increased from 13% to 24%. The Children of the 90’s study shows that 27-29 year olds have heightened anxiety. However, there was no evidence that depression levels are any higher overall.  Specific groups of individuals were still at higher risk of both depression and anxiety in the COVID-19 period. These were women: 
  • With pre-existing mental and physical health conditions; 
  • Who were living alone; 
  • Were self-isolating as a result of COVID-19; and,  
  • Who had experienced recent financial problems.  

 Interestingly though the report showed that some factors, such as living alone, were only linked to greater depression. Others, such as being a parent, was only linked to anxiety. These findings were in both the younger and older generations.  

•  Barnardo’s announces a ‘state of emergency’ for fostering children. As a result of Covid, there has been a 44% increase in children needing foster care. Foster parent applications also plummeted by nearly half (47%), compared to the same period last year.  
•  ONS data reports an increasing trend of more men dying from Covid than women. Between 9th– 25th May, 4,761 Covid deaths were recorded. Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were men. Statistically, there are 19.1 deaths per 100,000 for men compared to a significantly lower ratio for women (9.7). 

•  IPRR analysis suggests that if the UK matched international rates of performance, an estimated 20,000 deaths could have been avoided. The paper is clear that the UK has always led medical innovation. But the UK struggles with implementing innovation quickly. If this was overcome, the paper suggests those deaths would have been avoided.  The paper attributes the lower performance to three key areas: 
  • A risk adverse culture, driven by the focus on performance management and short term goals; 
  • The ‘sheer complexity of the NHS’; and,
  • Lack of resources – particularly a lack of financial support.  

 The article continues to make a range of policy recommendations to consider. This is in two parts, starting with long term institutional framework changes. The second being changes to local providers and commissioners.  

 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT  

•  New research reveals huge public support for putting nature at the heart of the post-covid recovery strategy. RSPB reports that there is strong public opposition (80%) to the Government reducing spending on nature with 84% of respondents supporting increasing the number of accessible nature-rich areas in the UK. 
•   The Conversation has released a discussion article on zero carbon homes leading the green recovery Post Covid. The articles states that 28% of all current carbon emissions are attributed to buildings, with retrofitting in homes being key. The article discusses that 80% of homes that exist today will still exist, in and be lived in, in 2050.  

Extra Reading 

To control beach overcrowding, the Italian government have produced an municipality app for residents to book spaces.  

The LGA have released a tool kit for councils. This online toolkit aids councils for revitalising town centres with guidance and resources.  

The LGA have also released a ‘bundle’ on their analysis to Covid and the economy. 

 Webinars 

Launch of CPRE, the countryside charity’s Post-coronavirus regeneration manifesto, 9-10am on Wednesday 1 July 

This webinar will launch CPRE’s manifesto, which is our response to the coronavirus pandemic. It includes recommendations to policy makers on how we can regenerate ourselves, regenerate our green spaces and regenerate our rural economies post-pandemic. Speakers include Rt Hon Philp Dunne MP, Chair of the Environmental Audit Committee; Mike Amesbury MP, Shadow Planning Minister; Caroline Lucas MP, Former Leader of the Green Party; Rhiane Fatinikun, Founder, Black Girls Hike; and, Crispin Truman OBE, Chief Executive, CPRE The countryside charity. 

CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency panel discussion, 9-10am on Wednesday 8 July 

This panel discussion will be an opportunity to discuss CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency, touching on energy, housing, landscapes, transport and farming. Speakers include Rt Hon George Eustice MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Luke Pollard MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle, Former Leader of the Green Party; Freddie Northcott, youth climate activist; and, Tom Fyans, Director of Policy and Campaigns, CPRE The countryside charity.  

Working with the voluntary and community sector to support communities, Wednesday 15 July 2020, 10.30am - 11.30am 

This LGA lead webinar will hear from national and local speakers, to discuss their e4xpereinces on the value of community and the voluntary sector. There will also be discussions around future challenges.  

Spotlight on Green Reset, Wednesday 11th July, 10.00am – 11.30am 

This LGA lead webinar will disucss the opportunity Covid has had for our climate change aspirations. It will explore local government steps to ensure short and long term responses to Covid correlate with sustainability measures. Speakers include Cllr David Renard, Chair, LGA’s Environment, Economy, Housing and Transport Board and Leader, Swindon Borough Council; Cllr Clyde Loakes, Deputy Leader, London Borough of Waltham Forest; Jo Wall, Strategic Director (Climate Response), Local Partnerships; and, Nicki Butterworth, Director of Neighbourhood Services, Wirral Council.