Intelligence Bulletin - 19th May, 2020

CORNWALL  

 ECONOMIC IMPACT 

•  Between February and April, Universal Credit applications have increased by 52.3% in Cornwall – with the two biggest increased in Newquay (78.6%) and Bude (61.5%). This information has come directly from DWP.  
•  British Red Cross has developed a COVID-19 vulnerability index at Ward and Local Authority level. This covers demographic, clinical, economic and social vulnerabilities as well as other health needs and geographic isolation. It is also displayed in our Community Insights Map as well.  

REGIONAL IMPACT 

•   Two North West mayors have called for regional data on Covid-19 infection rates, warning that the change in Governments messaging from Stay at Home to Stay Alert has happened too early for their regions and with detrimentally affect their residents.  
• Figures from the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy’s resilience index report that Woking, South Norfolk and Craven Districts are likely to be the hardest hit for loss of income from services such as parking and leisure while the public is in lockdown.   

• The LGC reports that death rates from Covid-19 in the most deprived areas are more than double those in the least deprived. Although general mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, the ONS says Covid-19 appears to be taking them higher still. The councils with the highest morality rates, outside of London, are: Hertsmere, Salford, Liverpool City, Watford and Middlesbrough.  

SOCIAL IMPACT 

•  More than a quarter of Care Homes deaths (27.3%) have involved Coronavirus: 31.4% of all deaths of male care home residents and 24.5% of deaths of female care home residents.  

• Researchers at University College London, University College London NHS Trust, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK have collaborated to find out how underlying health conditions could affect mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their health data study has revealed that having an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or diabetes, increases a person’s risk of death fivefold over the next year. 
•  
• New research conducted by the University of Exeter and the University of Connecticut in the USA found that older people with dementia were three times more likely to have severe  COVID-19 than older people with no dementia. 
•  
• The Institute of Fiscal Studies has been looking at whether the ‘adverse health effects of a recession may be greater than the increased morbidity and mortality within the pandemic itself’. The study looks at the effects a recession can have on health – physically and mentally – and the knock-on effects of these to future generations.  
•  An NSPCC survey revealed that a quarter of British adults would not know where to seek help if they thought a child was being hurt or neglected. The NSPCC also reports that there is a growing concern that vulnerable children are at risk and are ‘missing out on vital support during Covid-19 and School closures’.  
• A UCL led study, looking at the homelessness in a Covid-19 society estimates that in a ’do nothing’ scenario 34% of the homeless population could get COVID-19 between March and August 2020, with 364 deaths, 4,074 hospital admissions and 572 critical care admissions.  
• A YouGov study shows that most teachers think the coronavirus with cause mild or moderate harm to pupils education, yet 90% of teachers who teach at GCSE level are very or fairly confident they will give their students an accurate grade, as are 84% who teach A-levels. 

NATIONAL  

• A study jointly led by the ONS, in partnership with the Universities of Oxford and Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust, is tracking infections within a representative sample of people of all ages across England.  The study has initially estimated that between 27th April and 10th May 2020, an average of 0.27% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%). It is also estimated that an average of 148,000 people in England had COVID-19 during this time (95% confidence interval: 94,000 to 222,000). 

ECONOMIC IMPACT  

• The government have released an interactive dashboard, analysing financial and economic indicators in light of Covid-19. 

 The ONS reports, from their fortnightly survey, that the main sectors that have temporarily ceased trading were accommodation and food service (81%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (80%). 57% of responding businesses in the accommodation and food service activities sector reported their turnover had decreased by more than 50% compared with normal. 82% of adults continue to say that they have either not left their home, or only left for permitted reasons in the last 7 days, with 21% of adults say their relationships have been affected. 

• Nearly half of adults (46%) now expect it to be longer than six months before life returns to normal compared with 1 in 3 (33%) after the first week of lockdown. Just under 1 in 4 adults said the coronavirus was affecting their household finances. There was a drop in people feeling lonely this week.  
• The economic consumer sentiment indicator and consumer confidence indicators have dropped to their lowest ratings since 2009.  

Events  

 Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week – 18-24 May 

LGA: 21st May, 1045-1145 

As our residents continue to experience self-isolation and social distancing measures, the impact on mental health and wellbeing is becoming increasingly apparent, including for children and young people. To help councils think through their local responses, this webinar will explore the public mental health and wellbeing impacts of COVID-19 across the life course and share how councils are working with partners to support people’s mental health and wellbeing both in this immediate phase and looking ahead to recovery. Click here for more information. 

NHS Data Improvement Team: 22nd May, 1400-1600 

Data Driven COVID Care Models ‘virtual huddle’ where we will have a national update about population health management approaches to COVID-19, as well as hear about local approaches to support people at-risk during COVID-19. Please register for the event here.