Intelligence Bulletin - 17th June, 2020

LOCAL IMPACT

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• Analysis by the Resolution Foundation shows that some of the UK’s most deprived towns and cities, many reliant on tourism or with workers concentrated in low-paid service jobs, look set to be hit hardest in this crisis. Taking a place-based focus, they note an additional impact on not-strictly-tourism businesses in tourism-reliant areas (including hospitality but also stretching to retail, leisure, and other parts of the economy) because their demand has not been able to travel to them. In this sense, areas traditionally reliant on tourism have suffered a double whammy in lockdown – encompassing both supply restrictions and a significant reduction in demand.  

National Impact 

 YouGov polling shows that government approval ratings in the UK and USA continue their decline. Only 41% of Britons say the government is managing the outbreak well, versus 56% who say it is mishandling it. This gives a net score of -15, down from -6 the week previously. This means that domestically the British government are seen by the population to be handling the crisis less well than Americans think of their own government. The Trump administration’s response to the crisis currently generates a net score of -12, down from -7 the week before, with 41% of Americans saying the government is performing well compared to 53% who say it is performing poorly. 

ECONOMIC IMPACT

•  ONS data shows that of businesses in the UK continuing to trade, and who sell goods or services online, 32% responded that online sales have increased. The volume of job adverts in catering and hospitality between 29 May and 5 June 2020 declined to a record low of 18.1% of its 2019 level. 
• The Resolution Foundation shows that while the effects of this crisis on the labour market have been bottom heavy, with lower earners most affected, falls in income have been more evenly shared across the income distribution. 37 per cent of adults in the bottom 40 per cent of working-age incomes report income falls since the outbreak began, compared to 35 per cent of adults in the top 40 per cent of incomes. 
• Changes in spending, though, have a much stronger distributional gradient. 57 per cent of adults in the top quintile of working-age family incomes have experienced falling outgoings, compared with 30 per cent in the bottom quintile. Rather than being indicative of income falls, this is likely to reflect ‘enforced saving’ as a result of lockdown restrictions on non-essential spending. 
• More than one-fifth of usual household spending has not been possible during the lockdown, ONS analysis reveals. In the financial year ending March 2019, UK households spent an average of £182 per week on activities that have since been largely prevented by government guidelines (such as travel, holidays and meals out). This is equivalent to 22% of a usual weekly budget of £831, money that households could be saving, spending in other areas or using to cover any loss of income. 
• Step Change shows that one in five (19%) new clients said experiencing unemployment or redundancy was a main reason for debt, up from 16% at the same time last year. 
• The Resolution Foundation finds that while the earnings hit has been widely experienced across tenure groups, renters are one-and-a-half to two times more likely to have fallen behind with their housing payments compared to mortgaged home owners. Young people and those renting may find it difficult to cut back on spending because they spend a lower proportion of their budget on goods and services that are not essential. Renters also spend a higher proportion of their budget on essential items that cannot be cut back: private renters spend more than 60% of their weekly budget on household essentials. 
• RSN survey results show that 53% of respondents noted a rise in reports of homelessness /rough sleeping in rural areas due to covid-19, particularly with those who were unable to stay with family, friends or sofa surfing due to households isolating. 

SOCIAL IMPACT 

• An RSN survey shows that 40% of those that responded, (there were 92 responses from organisations), had noted an increase in reports of domestic abuse. There were concerns that people may not be able to report incidents, due to being isolated with the perpetrator during lockdown.  In addition, lack of public transport which has been further reduced in lockdown and normal places of face to face support only being available online have created additional issues for those in rural areas. 
• Contacts to NSPCC helpline about the impact of domestic abuse on children have increased by 32% since the start of the lockdown, to an average of one an hour. Since the lockdown 1,500 adults contacted the NSPCC Helpline about the risks to children who are trapped behind closed doors. 58% led to referrals or a referral update to the local authority. 

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

• ONS interactive map to explore the number of COVID-19 deaths in your area. 

• Between 25 May and 7 June 2020, ONS estimated that an average of 0.06% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.02% to 0.12%); this equates to an average of 33,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 68,000). 
• ONS data also shows that people living in more deprived areas have continued to experience COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those living in less deprived areas. General mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, but COVID-19 appears to be increasing this effect.  
• The pandemic, and the wider governmental and societal response, have brought health inequalities into sharp focus. People facing the greatest deprivation are experiencing a higher risk of exposure to COVID-19 and existing poor health puts them at risk of more severe outcomes if they contract the virus. This is exposing the structural disadvantage and discrimination faced by parts of the black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. The Health Foundation argues that restoring the nation to good health will require a new social compact, backed by a national cross-departmental health inequalities strategy. Action needed will include protecting incomes, improving the quality of jobs and homes, and supporting critical voluntary and community services. 
• There is clear evidence that black and minority ethnic groups are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than the rest of the population though that risk may not be the same for all ethnic groups. Data from the ONS published on 7 May show that, after adjusting for age, men and women of black ethnicity were at highest risk. They were more than four times as likely to die from COVID-19 compared to people of white ethnicity. Why? The answer to this question is complex. Ethnic inequalities in health in the UK have been extensively documented before COVID-19. A wide variety of explanations for these have been examined, ranging from upstream social and economic inequalities to downstream biological factors. Given the complexity of the systems that produce poor outcomes for black and ethnic minority groups, there is a real risk that the imprudent use of statistical adjustment techniques in studies of COVID-19 deaths may obscure the role of some upstream issues. 
• New data shows a significant increase in deaths of people with a learning disability as a result of Covid-19. Between 10 April and 15 May 2020, 386 people who were receiving care from learning disability and/or autism services died. In the same period last year 165 people died. This represents a 134% increase.  There are concerns about access to testing for people with learning disabilities in care homes. Until 5 June 2020 care homes could only order testing kits if they were looking after people aged over 65 or people with dementia. This left care homes for younger people with learning disabilities without access to testing kits. Mencap said this might result in “more people with a learning disability falling through the gap when it comes to accessing vital social care support.” 
• ONS data shows that in May 2020, just over 7 in 10 disabled adults (73.6%) reported they were "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the effect that the coronavirus (COVID-19) was having on their life (69.1% for non-disabled adults); this represents a decrease compared with April 2020, when nearly 9 in 10 (86.3%) disabled adults reported this. A higher proportion of disabled people than non-disabled people were worried about the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on their well-being (62.4% for disabled people compared with 49.6% of non-disabled people); their access to groceries, medication and essentials (44.9% compared with 21.9%); their access to health care and treatment for non-coronavirus-related issues (40.6% compared with 21.2%); and their health (20.2% compared with 7.3%) in May 2020. 
• IFS shows that the COVID-19 episode has had substantial negative impacts on mental health across the population. The biggest impacts have been on the gender and age groups – broadly women and the young – that already had relatively low levels of mental health. Pre-existing inequalities in mental health have therefore been exacerbated by the crisis.