Intelligence Bulletin - 14 September, 2020

Cornwall Impact

Economy

• Data released by NOMIS today shows the out of work benefit claimant count is still the highest amongst the 18-24 age bracket in Cornwall, with 10% claiming, whereas the South West figures is 7.9% and it is 9.4% for Great Britain. The 10% claimant rate represents the lowest figure since April. There is also a greater proportion of men claiming benefits (7.5%) than women (4.9%).

National Impact

Economy

• Unemployment in Britain increased to 4.1% during May, June and July, this equates to 1.4 million people. 4.1% represents a rise on the 3.9% recorded in the previous three months. Those aged 16-24 were the hardest hit out of all age groups. The full impact of the pandemic is expected to be shown post October when the furlough scheme ends, more than 10 million people have benefitted from the job retention scheme.
• The Professional Association of Self-Caterers are warning of yet more upheaval in the UK’s self-catering and holiday cottages market as the ‘rule of 6’ could leave larger properties standing empty. Under the previous rules in England, two families were permitted to meet if they observed social distancing measures up to a maximum of 30 people, but now holiday firms offering properties sleeping 7 or more will have to consider alternatives.
• Several UK retail and leisure businesses have announced reopening plans following lockdown.  The Co-op is planning to open 50 new stores, creating 1,000 new jobs, Pret A Manger has announced a new coffee subscription service to attract customers back into stores, whilst toy store Lego will be opening 14 new stores in the UK as it enjoys the result of good sales worldwide during the pandemic.
• New figures from the Institute for Employment Studies shows that employers in Britain are planning more than twice as many redundancies than they did at the height of the last recession with 380,000 job cuts planned from May to July this year compared to around 180,000 from January to March 2009.  Completed redundancies could reach 735,000 this autumn.
• Recent ONS research shows that the number of people who thought it would take more than a year for life to return to normal, if at all, rose from 2 in 10 in mid-June to 3 in 10 by the end of July.   Of businesses not permanently stopped trading, 36% of the workforce were working remotely instead of at their normal place of work.

Housing

• Housing secretary Robert Jenrick announced that the government have declared a truce on enforcement action for tenants facing eviction in England and Wales this Christmas. Evictions will not be enforced in areas in a local lockdown. Notice periods for eviction have also been increased to 6 months as the pandemic continues. Court proceedings for evictions will restart on 21 September, but evictions will not be enforced by bailiffs in local lockdown areas.

Social Care and Health 

• In July more than 2 million people across England are waiting for hospital treatment, more than triple the figure for 2019. The President of the Royal College of Surgeons of England highlighted that some of these patients require treatment to get back to work, therefore this represents not only a health issue but also an economic issue.
• Addiction services in England could struggle to cope with "soaring" numbers of people misusing alcohol, the Royal College of Psychiatrists is warning.  Data shows that many adults are drinking more since the coronavirus pandemic began, with the college estimating that in June, more than 8.4m people in England were drinking at higher-risk levels, up from 4.8m in February.   The college is asking the government to invest millions more in addiction services as the rise in risky drinking comes at a time when more people addicted to opiates are seeking help from addiction services.
• The Trussell Trust has predicted that at least 670,000 extra people will become destitute and in need of charity food parcels by Christmas as coronavirus job and income support schemes are wound down.
• NHS Providers, which represents English hospital trusts, has said that a lack of coronavirus tests for NHS staff is leading to staff absences and services being put at risk, with staff having to self-isolate because they cannot get tests for themselves or family members. Whilst a network of over 5,000 school heads also say there is growing frustration at the lack of access to testing and the potential impact and staff shortages that could force partial closures in schools.  Government figures show the current capacity for daily testing is more than 350,000 - which includes swab tests and antibody tests - with the aim to increase to 500,000 a day by the end of October.