Intelligence Bulletin 13th May, 2020

CORNWALL 

• Research by CIoS LEP and Economic Growth has shown that if the entire tourist season is lost, Cornwall is looking at estimated losses of £1.5bn pounds.  

• Potential net job losses in Cornwall as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown is 72,800. The majority of the job losses being concentrated in the following sectors: ‘Accommodation & Food Services’ a loss of 29,200 and ‘Wholesale, Retail & Motors’ losing 21,300 jobs overall. Other sectors with significant job losses are: ‘Education’ and ‘Manufacturing’ a net loss of 4,600 jobs, and ‘Arts, entertainment & recreation’ with an overall loss of 4,500. 
• The number of successful Universal Credit claims has continued to grow since March 2019, reaching 24,934 in March 2020. Cornwall saw a +110% increase in calls to Cornwall’s Citizens Advice service regarding ‘initial benefit claims’ compared to April 2019. 
• Data from Cornwall Council’s Together for Families Team show that there has been a +401% increase in per pupil applications for free school meals in April 2020 compared to April 2019: from 196 to 983 total applications. 
• April 2020 saw a +142% increase in the numbers of CTS claims decided compared to April 2019. 

NATIONAL 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• The Resolution Foundation weekly figures on economic impact of Covid-19 show that the flow of new Universal Credit claimants has slowed significantly in recent weeks but remains three times above the pre-crisis level. 
• According to Citizens’ advice 6.3 million employees have been furloughed via the Job  Retention Scheme - nearly a quarter of all employees. There has been a 35% increase in people coming to CA for help with their initial claim for Universal Credit compared to the same period 6 months ago.  
• New research from Citizens Advice also shows that over 13 million people have already been unable to pay, or expect to be unable to pay, at least one bill because of the coronavirus outbreak. Of these, almost 11 million have missed or expect to miss a bill that would leave them vulnerable to severe consequences - including eviction, bailiff enforcement or disconnection - when Covid-19 financial protections end. 
• The Food Foundation furthermore highlight that five million people in the UK living in households with children under 18 have experienced food insecurity since the lockdown started. 1.8 million of these experienced food insecurity solely due to the lack of supply of food in shops, leaving 3.2 million people (11% of households) suffering from food insecurity due to other issues such as loss of income or isolation. This is double the level of food insecurity among households with children reported by the Food Standards Agency in 2018 (5.7%). 

IMPACT ON SPECIFIC GROUPS 

• ONS data show a total of 2,494 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the working age population (aged 20-64 years). Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (1,612 deaths). Men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths).  
• Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths). Healthcare workers, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, were not found to have higher rates of death involving COVID-19 when compared with the rate among those whose death involved COVID-19 of the same age and sex in the general population. 
• Youth unemployment in the UK could rise by 640,000 this year - taking the total above one million, a report from the Resolution Foundation found.  It said school leavers were hardest hit by recessions and it called for more support to prevent "years of reduced pay and limited job prospects". 
• Research by the Fawcett Society show 51% of parents with young children will struggle to make ends meet in the next three months, and 57% face higher levels of debt after the crisis. It also finds that women who are working outside the home are more likely to be keyworkers, with six in ten (61%) compared with four in ten (43%) men saying their work is essential at this time.  
• The Resolution Foundation also suggest that key workers are disproportionately likely to be female, with employed women more than twice as likely to be in this group as employed men. Parents are more likely to be key workers than non-parents, and mothers even more so; 39 per cent of working mothers were key workers before this crisis began, compared to just 27 per cent of the working population as a whole.