The Cornwall We Know

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Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help our understanding of Cornwall and the impact of various data points/ information that has affected our residents and businesses.

Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help our understanding of Cornwall and the impact of various data points/ information that has affected our residents and businesses.

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 27 July, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact 

    Housing and Welfare Update 

    The number of households that were in receipt of council tax support or housing benefit (excluding those in receipt of the Housing element of UC) in Cornwall in June had grown by 4,166 since March this year. Of these new households, 2,515 are in work, and 1,651 are out of work3,007 of the new households are classed as in relative poverty and due to the proportion of households in this group being so high, this has pushed the overall proportion of all households in this group in poverty to 50%. There were nearly 25,000 households in Cornwall in June living below the poverty line, including over 14,000 children, an increase of 15% since March. 

    Due to a change in the eligibility criteria for peripheral benefits in March 2020, in Cornwall there are now an additional 3,347 households that could be eligible for the Warm Homes Discount, bringing the total to 40,908. There are also an extra 1,221 households that are eligible for free prescriptions, bringing the total in Cornwall to 21,818. 

    April’s welfare reforms have shifted the balance of people who would now be better off if they moved from legacy benefits to Universal Credit, with 50% being better off compared to 47% being worse off. Previously, 24% would have been better off, compared to 54% who would have been worse off. 

    An extra 2,374 households in Cornwall have gone into council tax arrears since March, an increase of 24%, bringing the total to 12,150. However, 1,118 households have been identified that could be eligible for Council Tax Support but are not yet claiming it. There was a 7% increase between March and June of households in Cornwall who are in receipt of housing benefit or council tax support, with the increase mainly in council tax support. There are nearly 25,000 children living in households who receive these benefits. 

    The House of Commons website has published a dashboard on housing supply by local authority area. Using the tool you are able to select a local authority area and view data on housing stock by sector, compare this across the local region and the national sector breakdown, look at how new homes are being delivered, and where they are being lost. You can also look at a dashboard for affordable housing and access all the data sources used to create the dashboards. 

    The House of Commons has published Universal Credit data for June 2020 by constituency on its Universal Credit Rollout dashboard. The constituency can be selected and both statistics and graphs can be generated. The chart below compares the number of people on Universal Credit compared to those still claiming legacy benefits in the Camborne and Redruth constituency as an example. This can be run for any constituency. The Government currently expects all households claiming legacy benefits and tax credits to have moved across to UC by September 2024. 

     

     

    National Impact 

    Economy 

    PWC have released their latest UK Economic Update which covers scenario based analysis of the potential short-term impacts of COVID-19 on UK economic growth. The data shows the decline in economic activity has slowed and that in May the economy grew by 1.8%, driven by an expansion in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Their estimates for GDP growth in 2020 range from -10% to -13%. They estimate that the level of GDP may still be around 1% to 7% below pre-crisis trends by the end of next year. 

    The Office for National Statistics has released data on Average household disposable income and income inequality in the UKIn the financial year leading up to the pandemic (2019/20) average household disposable income (after taxes and benefits) was £30,800 – up 2.3% (£700) compared with 2018/19, after accounting for inflation. Also in 2019/20, real earnings increased by an average of 1.5%, however more recently total annual pay growth for March to May 2020 fell by 1.3%, after accounting for inflation, which will likely impact adversely on income growth rates in 2020/21 (this financial year). 

    LGiU examines the issues facing live music venues and those who work in the sector considering Covid-19 and the potential role of local authorities in their recovery. The lockdown put an estimated 90 per cent of venues and festivals at imminent risk of closure. Mass closures of music venues would mean the loss of a £5 billion industry and thousands of job losses. (You will need to set up a free account to view this briefing). 

    Ratings agency Moody’s has warned that it could downgrade the UK’s credit rating if it fails to provide a credible debt reduction strategy following Covid-19. (you will need a free Public Finance account to view this article). The agency forecasts gross general government debt will rise to around 112% of GDP by the end of this year, up by close to 27 percentage points from 2019. Moody’s said: “The UK's rating would likely be downgraded if Moody's were to conclude that policymakers' capacity and appetite to develop a credible medium-term strategy to reduce debt was low. Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the government has borrowed a record £127.9bn between April and June - more than double the £55.4bn borrowed in the whole of the last full financial year. 

    MPs have slated ministers for failing to give local government sufficient funding and urged them to ensure a 'clear and timely financial settlement’ in readiness for the next phase of the pandemic. The House of Commons' Public Accounts Committee (PAC) said ‘central government has not given local authorities the clarity or support they need over long-term funding'. It said central government ‘promised’ councils they would have the resources they need but many are now facing income shortfalls. They said local government needs clarity to avoid them having to issue Section 114 notices imposing spending restrictions. 

     

    Health and Wellbeing 

    The LGiU (Local Government Information Unit) have released a report which discusses the question of urban density and its relationship to disease in general and to the transmission of the Covid-19 virus in particular. (You will need to set up a free account with LGiU to view this report). 

    In the most recent results from University College London’s COVID-19 social studywhich now looks at data compiled over 16 weeks of the survey, they have focused on the psychological effects of the restriction imposed by Government to fight the pandemic. They have found that 1 in 4 respondents have reported that their relationships with colleagues or co-workers got worse over lockdown. You can also add your experiences to the survey and take part at any point. 

    The Health and Safety Executive has published statistics on workplace health a safety for the year 2019/20. 111 workers were fatally injured at work. It is the lowest annual number of workplace deaths on record, and a fall of 38 from 2018/19.  HSE notes that this decrease was accentuated by the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the economy in the final two months of the year, when many workers were not at work.  Fatal injury statistics do not include deaths from occupational diseases, including COVID-19. Data for non-fatal injuries and illness caused by work will be published for 2019/20 in November 2020. 

    The Public Health Director of Blackburn with Darwen CouncilProfessor Dominic Harrison has said that England's contact tracers have only reached about 50% of people who have been in close contact with someone with Covid-19 in an area of Lancashire where new cases are rising. He warned of "exponential growth" of new infections if the system did not become more efficient. The Government's most recent statistics reveal that of the people in England who tested positive for Covid-19 between 2-8 July, 17.1% could not be reached and a further 4.1% did not provide their phone number. 

    Despite expecting to live longer, people in their 40s and 50s are likely to suffer more years of ill health than older generations now in their 60s and early 70s, according to a new University College London-led study. The study, published in the journal Population Studies, compared generations born between 1945 and 1980 and found a greater prevalence of ill health among those born later, with these younger cohorts more likely to rate their health as poor and have clinically measured poor health at equivalent ages during their working lives. The researchers concluded that, although life expectancy has increased in recent decades, many of the years gained are likely to be spent in poor health, with conditions such as diabetes and obesity affecting people earlier. 

    Public Health England have produced a monitoring tool analysing the wider impacts of COVID-19 on health. The tool looks at a range of topics including change in alcohol consumption, grocery purchasing, social determinants of health, access to care and more.  

    national network of data experts has been established to help solve the UK’s most pressing health and care challenges. Led by the Health Foundation, this network is designed to focus on health and social care issues, overcoming existing barriers of fragmentated data collation throughout this sector. The ‘Data Lab’ has already linked together local data with the aim to extract local insights.  


    Society and Welfare 

    The Corporate Director for Children and Young People at Kent County Council, says there could be an increase of 250% in referrals of children that need to be investigated and kept safe when lockdown is eased further. Mr Dunkley said: "What we are looking at is a huge surge in September in children needing to be seen, families needing to be assessed, when they are at the end of their tether after six months being locked down or being out of the eye of their school.... that leaves us with a huge budget problem. 

    The LGiU has published a report on the impact that COVID-19 has had on the UK-EU negotiations for the UK’s exit from the EU. Only a few months remain until a deal must be concluded and the public health situation remains unpredictable. Local authorities will have to contend with the coronavirus public health response, the economic recovery, and the Brexit changeover simultaneously. The report covers recent developments in the EU-UK future relationship negotiations; preparation for the future relationship; and the impact of the coronavirus and future relations. (You will need an LGiU account, which is free to set up, to view this report). 

    Women seeking asylum in the UK have described a significant increase in unsafe and unsanitary living conditions during the Covid-19 crisis, according to a report from a coalition of charities. The report is published by Sisters Not Strangers. They report that more than a fifth of 115 women surveyed were homeless during the coronavirus pandemic and three-quarters of 115 women surveyed were not able to get enough food. Further, nearly 2,500 patients were discharged from mental health units in England – raising concern that vulnerable people were released into the community before they were ready.  

    The Resolution Foundation has released their annual Living Standards Audit for 2020. In it they look at how households were faring before the coronavirus crisis, but also how the incomes of different groups were affected during lockdown. They also look to the future, and discuss the importance of maintaining and improving protection from the effects of rising unemployment in the months ahead. 

    Half of Britons noticed brands supporting Pride month according to a YouGov survey. Due to the Coronavirus outbreak, Pride celebrations were more subdued for Pride month in June 2020. But Brits are split on whether they’ve seen more or less activity from companies supporting Pride this yearNearly half of Brits (48%) have noticed companies making their logos Pride-themed during June – for example by using rainbow colours. Three in ten people (31%) have also noticed social media posts about Pride or LGBTQ+ issues. However, Britons are sceptical of the motives when brands show their support for LGBTQ+ causes during June. Only a quarter believe it’s genuine, while nearly half (47%) say it’s not. 

     

    Environmental 

    Beauty spots and conservation areas are being put at risk by increasing numbers of irresponsible wild campers leaving behind piles of rubbish and lighting firesThe guardian reports that the National trust had seen a huge increase in what it dubbed “fly camping”, where vast quantities of litter and sometimes tents are left behind by illegal campers. Ben McCarthy of the National Trust said, “This is not only causing us issues with having to spend valuable time clearing up sites – taking our staff away from vital conservation work and engaging with visitors – but also leaving debris and litter behind, which can cause issues for wildlife such as injuring animals and destroying habitats.” 

    The LGA has responded to a campaign launched by Keep Britain Tidy to keep parks litter-free. Chair of the Local Government Association’s Culture, Tourism and Sport Board, said: “Councils are working hard to keep parks and public spaces clean. “Services have been disrupted during the pandemic but staff are determined to tackle a backlog of parks maintenance as they return from temporary redeployment to other areas, including supporting bin collections and helping shielded residents. “Responsibility for clearing up litter lies with the person dropping it or leaving it behind. Councils need the public’s cooperation to help keep parks, green spaces and streets free from litter. 

     

     

    Webinars and Engagement Opportunities 

    LGiU Online meeting: Sustainable Futures policy roundtable – This virtual policy roundtable offers the chance for attendees to outline what they would like to see included in LGIU’s work on Sustainable Futures, as well as an opportunity to share your experiences and plans for the future on these timely issues. The meeting is part of LGIU’s ongoing Post-Covid Councils project. Themes include: sustainable tourism in cities, towns and rural areas, rural and coastal communities, transport/active travel, green recovery plans and collaborating across boundaries. 

    When: 5 Aug 2020, 14:00–15:30 

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 21 July, 2020

    about 4 years ago
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    National Impact

    Economic Picture

    • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have released their most recent wave of indicators for the UK economy and society. Some of the headline findings were:
      • Between 15 and 28 June 2020, 90% of businesses in accommodation and food services reported increased operating costs because of the implementation of safety measures, according to the latest Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS)
      • The proportion of adults shopping for things other than basic necessities increased to 19% from 13% in the previous week, according to the latest Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN).
      • 41% of businesses were providing pay top-ups to the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, covering 71% of their furloughed workforce
      • In accommodation and food services, 90% of businesses reported increased operating costs because of the implementation of safety measures
      • Between 3 July and 10 July 2020, the volume of job adverts remained at just under 50% of their 2019 average
      • GDP fell by 19.1% in the three months to May, as government restrictions on movement dramatically reduced economic activity.
    • Council leaders have urged the Government to provide further details on the promised compensation for loss of income due to the pandemic. Cllr Carl Les, CCN spokesperson for finance, said: ‘We await the publication of the detail for the government’s compensation scheme for lost income in council fees and charges. However, it is crucial the government brings forward an ‘income guarantee’ for lost council tax and business rate income, which pose the largest financial risk to councils over the coming period.’
    • West Berkshire Council are the first in the UK to launch a local government green bond. The council aims to raise £1m from its citizens to fund solar panel installations on five council-owned buildings. The bond uses Community Municipal Investment (CMI) developed by Abundance, which allows councils to offer a regulated investment directly to their residents for the first time.


    Health and Wellbeing

    • The ONS has released its most recent infection survey pilot study. They conclude that the number of people in England testing positive has decreased since the start of the study and has now levelled off. They estimate around 1 in 2,300 individuals within the community population in England had COVID-19 within the most recent week looked at, from 6 July to 12 July 2020. This equates to an estimated 24,000 people (95% credible interval: 15,000 to 34,000).

    • During the most recent week (6 July to 12 July), we estimate there were around two new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 individuals in the community population in England, equating to around 1,700 new cases per day (95% confidence interval: 700 to 4,200). Between 26 April and 8 July, 6.3% of people tested positive for antibodies against COVID-19 on a blood test, suggesting they had had the infection in the past.
    • The Government has now said it will allow Councils to have named patient data on those who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the area. Local Government have said that the lack of this data had been hampering their efforts to monitor and react to local outbreaks. The article in The Observer includes commentary from Andy Burnham who has been a lead campaigner for local government receiving full data and in a more timely fashion from central Government.
    • Herefordshire Council has said there is no indication that COVID-19 has spread from Rook Row Farm, which was put into lockdown after 74 of its employees tested positive for the virus. The Chief executive of the council, Alistair Neill said that over 70 had recovered and returned to work and that they were working with Public Health England to monitor the local area and that “at this stage there is no evidence of any community infection”.
    • The Government has suspended the publication of death toll figures for the UK over fears the data may not be accurate. The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, has ordered a review into the figures. Academic experts have highlighted that Public Health England reports the death of anyone who has ever tested positive for COVID-19, regardless of when the test occurred and the length of time between the test and the person’s death. It does not consider that some of these people may have recovered and been discharged from hospital into the community and then unfortunately died from an unrelated cause.
    • Councils will get new powers to shut down premises in a bid to control the spread of coronavirus as we head towards the next phase of the pandemic, the Prime Minister has announced. He continued: ‘From tomorrow, local authorities will have new powers in their areas. They will be able to close specific premises, shut public outdoor spaces and cancel events. These powers will enable local authorities to act more quickly in response to outbreaks where speed is paramount.’
    • Councils have been awarded £62m to help accelerate the discharge of people with learning disabilities and/or autism from mental health hospitals. The Community Discharge Fund will help move people into more appropriate care settings or into their community by paying for community teams, accommodation and staff training.
    • A survey of over 14,000 adults by the mental health charity Mind has revealed that existing inequalities in housing, employment, finances and other issues have had a greater impact on the mental health of people from different Black, Asian and Ethnic Minority (BAME) groups than white people during the coronavirus pandemic.


    Housing

    • More than 140 prisoners have been housed in hotels and B&Bs after being released during lockdown. Some of these have been released early to prevent overcrowding and infection risks in prison. The ministry of justice says all offenders are thoroughly risk-assessed before being released. The hotels were not provided with details of the offence the person had committed and electronic monitoring equipment would be installed in an offender's hotel room to ensure they abide by a curfew.
    • The Duke of Cambridge has said that COVID-19 has given us an opportunity to crack homelessness. The Duke visited The Light Project in Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, which has helped to house over 150 people during lockdown. The Prince said, “This pandemic has been truly horrendous for everyone - I'm really hoping that the slivers of positivity and the slivers of goodness that might come out of this is in the homelessness side of things.”
    • This is well timed as Secretary of state for housing, Robert Jenrick, unveils a new £266m fund to help vulnerable people move into long term accommodation. The Next Steps Accommodation Programme will provide new tenancies for around 15,000 vulnerable people who were moved into accommodation during the pandemic.
    • The Affordable Housing Commission has published a 12-point housing recovery plan, which puts social and affordable housing at the heart of the recovery. The measures include returning housing grants to the previous levels, reforms to Right to Buy and Permitted Development Rights, and caps on rent rises. It also proposes a new Housing Conversion Fund to enable social landlords to buy unsold homes and other properties.


    Society and Social Welfare

    • In their latest edition of Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain, which covers the period 8-12 July 2020, the ONS have found the following:
      • 6 in 10 adults (61%) who have left their homes have worn a face covering to slow the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) – an increase from last week (52%).
      • Just over 4 in 10 (41%) adults had family or friends visit them in their home over the last week, and for those aged over 70 years this rises to 5 in 10 (50%).
      • For the first time half of working adults (50%) reported they had travelled to work in the past seven days, a slight increase on last week (48%).
      • When meeting up with other people over a half of adults (55%) always maintained social distancing, with just over 1 in 20 (6%) saying they rarely or never maintained social distancing.
      • Nearly 3 in 10 adults (27%) said they would be comfortable or very comfortable to eat indoors at a restaurant compared with 2 in 10 adults (20%) last week.
      • Among those that had left their home, nearly 1 in 10 adults (9%) visited a barber or hair salon this week and a further 1 in 10 (10%) left home to eat or drink at a restaurant, café, bar or pub; a further 15% collected take-away food or drink from a restaurant, café, bar or pub.
      • During the period 8-12 July the most common reasons for leaving home were:

      


    • A new guide to help councils engage with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been launched by the LGA. Sir Richard Leese, chair of the LGA’s City Regions Board, said: ‘Local government can play a key role in driving a sustainable recovery that meets the needs of local communities and businesses.
    • A report released by the Children’s Commissioner for England says that early years services are failing to target the children that most need support. Anne Longfield, argues the system needs a complete overhaul, with too many children from disadvantaged families falling behind before they even start formal education. The report calls on the Government to create a ‘Best Beginnings’ strategy bringing together the Healthy Child Programme, the Early Years Foundation Stage, Children and Family Hubs, antenatal services and the Troubled Families Programme.
    • YouGov asked British people how they feel about their family income. 8 surveys took place over the course of May and June. 64% of respondents said there had been no change in their household finances in the preceding month. 23% of people said their financial situation had deteriorated and 10% said it had gotten better. A third of respondents said their cash levels hadn’t changed over the last month and won’t change over the next year. This group accounts for around a third of Britons (34%). The graph below illustrated people’s thoughts on how the situation will change in the next year.
    • The Office for National Statistics have published a subnational ageing tool which can be used to compare current and projected indicators of ageing across local authorities, regions and countries in the UK. The data is based on 2019 estimates and 2018-based subnational population projections.




    Infrastructure

    • The RAC is calling for revenue from car tax to be ring-fenced to pay for local road maintenance after they didn’t see a significant drop in car damage due to potholes even though traffic on the roads dropped by as much as 60% in April to June. The RAC said drivers are now 1.5 times more likely to suffer a pothole breakdown than in 2006, when it first started collecting data.

    Cornwall

    • Tourism in two areas named as the best seaside towns "to avoid crowds" needs a balance between welcoming visitors and dealing with coronavirus, locals say. A UK wide poll held by consumer group Which? Saw St Mawes in Cornwall and Dartmouth in Devon top the list but St Just in Roseland Parish Council for St Mawes say there is increasing concern from residents and businesses about social distancing.



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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 14th July, 2020

    about 4 years ago
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    CORNWALL 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

    • Trend analysis from new ONS household data, comparing 2018 to 2043, shows Cornwall’s household population will significantly change. Nationally, across the board, there is an increase of single parent families, households with dependent children, single households and households with no children but two or more adults. In Cornwall, the data shows a continuing trend seen in previous ONS analysis, of more single households over the next 35 years. 
      • Females living alone will increase by 37.3% (England: 26.17%);  Males living alone will increase by 29.13% (England: 21.39%);  
      • Households with two or more adults, but no children, will increase by 28.32% (England 19.7%);  
      • Households with children:  
        • 1 dependent child will increase by 7.47% (England (3.97%);  
        • 2 dependent children will increase by 6.75% (England 1.16%);  
        • 3 dependent children will increase by 5.01% (England 0.7%). 
    • As of 10th July, Cornwall has the third lowest rate (157.3) of Covid in England and Wales. We sit under North East Lincolnshire (129.5) and Devon (150.3). 
    • Throughout lock down, the cumulative number of cases per 100,000 people in Cornwall have remained in the top 12 authorities.  

    HOUSING  

    • Based on the average house price in Cornwall for all property types (latest available, March 2020, UK House Price index): £238,854.   
    • For first time buyers there would be no saving (before the holiday first time buyers didn’t pay stamp duty on the first £300k).   
    • For existing homeowners, they would save £2,277.  
    • For additional homeowners the saving would be £2,943. 

     

    NATIONAL 

    ECONOMY  

    • The LGA have explored the impact that lock down has had on sports and physical activity in the UK. The article looks backwards and forwards, understanding the changes and the repercussions that it has had for the recovery period.  With UKactive and Community Leisure UK warning that there could be up to half of all leisure centres/public leisure facilities facing permanent closure by the end of the year, this paper looks at the impact that would cause. Overall, they conclude that there are 7 key strategic areas that need focus and coordinated action within the recovery phase to ensure these centres remain open 
    1. Addressing health and economic inequalities;  

    1. Physical and mental health; 

    1. Active travel in rebooting the economy;  

    1. Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change; 

    1. Young and older people; 

    1. Building stronger communities; 

    1. Service integration.  

    • ONS’ Social Impacts study revealed that a quarter of adults (25%) said they ‘were likely or very likely to go on holiday in the UK this summer’, but only 9% of adults were likely or very likely to go abroad. The survey also included an analysis of reasons to leave the house for 2nd - 5th July, broken down into two age brackets 15-69 years and 70+ years.  It showed that more 70+ only left the house for basic necessities (76%), whilst also showing that 6% (around 1 in 20 people) left their house to visit an outdoor beauty spot, a decrease of 8% from the previous week.     
    • With thousands of jobs being lost, redundancy advice is being sought out with Citizens Advice reporting that they are receiving a call every 2 minutes. The charity is reporting that the swell in calls are reflective of an ‘escalating economic crisis’. They also report that their benefits web page, where there is a wealth of information and guidance, has received record breaking traffic figures – 4.4 million views since 23rd March.  
    • Live Comedy Association (LVA) survey has reported that 77% of venues will be forced to permanently close within 12 months, with a third saying that they may only have 6 months left. The LCA are lobbying government to not forget them in the entertainment funding allocations later in the year.  
    • The LGA have produced a study articles, with recommendations, for Coastal and Rural towns that have high numbers of touristsThe study reports that, internationally, there may be a global tourism collapse due to international travel income estimating to drop by $910bn - $1.2tr. They report ‘signs’ of a shift in travel destinations to become more domestic, particularly this year. As such, coastal and rural areas that already had a traditional holiday influx of tourists are set to see even higher numbers than ever before. It looks at guarding residents whilst maintaining the relationship between both parties. 
    • The Centre for Progressive Policy has released a study looking at the skills within employment nationwide to understand their essential role in the recovery phaseThey've identified a range of divisions across the council, most notably that Red Wall places under perform in 7 out of the 8 indicators that they analysed. Also, participation in Adult Education Classes has declined by 37% since 2012/13 - further inhibited by the 39% decrease of government funding for this area since 2002. Within this report, there are three main areas identified that need improvement: failing participation and investment; inequality in participation and place-based equality in skills. CPP are therefore lobbying for the ‘right to retrain’, with four recommendations to help with this:     
    1. Building a high quality online learning system – establishing a central infrastructure for online skills and fast track the Education Technology Strategy; 

    1. Strengthening existing provision – government should pay 50% of all apprenticeships wages and extend public funding to include level 3 qualifications for everyone;   

    1. Support for living costs for those in needs of training – for those that have already lost their jobs, the government should pay a Learners Living Allowance and for those in jobs to be entitled for paid time off to undertake training;   

    1. Ramping up local strategic input – there should be a place based remit for further education centres with a strategic, rather than a marketplace, delivery of provision and the ‘New Skills Advisory Board’ should report to the local mayor on labour needs.  

    • The Local Government Intelligence Unit have announced a ‘Post Councils Project’ for all Local Authorities to get involved with.  
    • A survey, undertaken by BritainThinks, has shown that just 12% of the UKs residents want life to return to normal ‘exactly as it was before’.  Research also shows that, from the survey, the top three priorities from respondents are: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and wages for essential workers and an economic recovery that isn’t London-centric.  

     

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE 

    • The ONS’ Social Impact Study shows that whilst anxiety levels have been decreasing, this week saw its largest increase to 4.0, from 3.6 last week. This is reflected within worries about the future, were being generally stressed or anxious and spending too much time with others in the household.    

    Office for National Statistics - Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, 2020  

     

    • Space enabled technology will be utilised to help identify vulnerable people. Combining local authority data and satellite data, the space agency will help identify people who are more exposed to the impacts of Covid. This project will also help meet challenges in delivering supplies, such as test kits and masks, as well as managing localised outbreaksAn initial £2.6m has been made available for a number of small projects under this joint initiative with the European Space Agency and the NHS England.   
    • New research shows that up to a third of social workers could be looking to quit, a survey by the Social Workers Union exposes. This has come after 50% of social workers are reported to have put their own health at risk during lock down with 51% saying risk assessments have been poor. Worryingly 1 in 10 (11%) have felt threatened with disciplinary measures for raising safety concerns – both professional and personal safety with the survey also reporting that over 60% of social workers have felt their mental health has been affected negatively during lock down. Illustratively, 1 in 20 social workers have suffered total collapse during this time.  
    • Public generosity exceeded expectations during lock down, with a huge surge in donations to food banks and ‘go fund me’ pages. However, analysis from The Conversation, concludes that this is exceptional and will not become the new normal – leaving struggling families even more vulnerable. Analysis already shows that as the number of Covid cases declined towards the end of April, so did the number of donations made to Food Banks nationally. This is at a time where UC claimants have more than doubled in some areas. The report further identifies that richer areas are more likely to donate more.    
    • Almost half (48%) of people in the UK have provided help or support to someone outside of their household during the first month of lock down. Previously it was around only 11% with over 80% of those that helped, it was most likely with shopping. Notably, 3% helped with personal care. Below, you can clearly seen the differences between 2017/18 and April 2020.  

    • Calls to the Charity Become, that support young care leavers, have reported a 75% increase in calls from children and young people requesting help and assurances. The charity reports that moving from supported living to being alone, once they turn 18, was already hard enough – now with Covid there is a significant amount of uncertainty of which a large proportion cannot be answered. The charity is lobbying government to help.     
    • The ONS have produced an interactive map showing the number of deaths due to Covid, down to MSOA. Whilst publicly this data is only available to MSOA level, it clearly shows a higher level of Covid related deaths in areas with higher population density.     

    • The Children's Commissioner has produced a report looking at the number of children that were already vulnerable, and those that have become vulnerable due to Covid and are at risk from ‘falling through the gap’The report shows that in 2017/18 123,000 fell through the gaps of provision – becoming invisible to authorities. The analysis shows that 4 in every 100 teenagers are becoming invisible. National rates for invisible teenagers is 4% - but in Medway, Liverpool and Blackpool it is 7%. Local authority data is available on the link above.  
    • More than 10,000 disadvantaged students in Manchester have received laptops, tablets and routers to aid in their education during lock down. This joint initiative, with all the local councils in Manchester (excluding Trafford council) and the Department of Education is aimed at students, social care leavers and families with no access to digital devices.  
    • The NHS have announced a ‘Online’ Rehabilitation lab for those suffering from long term affects due to Covid. This ‘ground breaking’ project will enable thousands of people to access on-demand services from nursers and physiotherapists.  
    • A study from UCL has shown that a fifth of vulnerable people in Britain have ‘thought about self harming or killing themselves’ during lock down. The study showed that whilst 42% had access to services, 5% harmed themselves during lock down and 18% reported thoughts of self-harm or suicide. The Guardian also reports that there was a significant rise in ambulance calls to mental health concerns from last year – this analysis excludes the London ambulance service.  
    • Care costs are set to significantly increased post Covid, with estimates that more than half a million people will be forced to pay at extra £40,000 a year for care at home. This is due to residents not wanting to be in care homes due to Covid.  
    • Cases of malnutrition in children have doubled in the last 6 months  with almost 2,500 children admitted to hospital in the first 6 months of this year. A main concern is that Covid is only going to exasperate the issue. Whilst less than 2/3rds of trusts responded, almost 1,000 children in Cambridge alone were admitted due to malnutrition.  

     

    HOUSING  

    • Nationally a large number of landlords are flouting evictions bans to evict tenants, before the ban is lifted in August. Citizens advice report that at least 1000 tenants have seeked advice due to unlawful eviction between March and June this year – which is more than double the previous year. The Government have reinforced their statement saying that if you are given notice, you have the legal right to stay put. However, the Citizens Advice campaign ‘Get help if you’re being Evicted’ during April and June this year had over 7,500 clicks; where the help page on ‘If you have no where to stay tonight’ had a 139% increase with 7,200 views.  
    • New data released by the ONS shows that 16 homeless people have died due to CovidAll 16 were based in England and not Wales. 6 were from London and 3 in the North West. This data is very early, with full analysis from the ONS due in late 2021. 
    • Continuing the bundle series, the LGA have just released a guidance bundle dedicated to Homelessness.  

     

    Extra reading  

     

     

    Webinars  

    Working with the voluntary and community sector to support communities 
    15 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.30am 

    Financial hardship and economical vulnerability 
    16 July 2020, 10.40am – 12.10pm 

    Regional Recovery and Renewal 
    17 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.30am 

    Councils’ role in deliverying the UN Sustainable Development Goals post COVID-19 
    17 July 2020, 3.00pm – 4.00pm 

    Rethinking the future of physical activity – Local government in conversation with Sport England 
    20 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.45am 

    Cyber security in the age of COVID-19 
    21 July 2020, 10.30am – 12.00pm 

    Early years inclusion: supporting young children (0-5) with SEND during COVID-19 
    21 July 2020, 1,30pm – 3.00pm 

    Local government’s digital response to COVID-19 
    28 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.35am 

    Childcare sufficiency and sustainability during the COVID-19 pandemic 
    28 July 2020, 2.00pm – 3.30pm 


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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 7th July

    about 4 years ago
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    NATIONAL IMPACT  

    ECONOMIC   

    • The LGA has announced that the Covid funding gap has reached £7.4bn. In June, the financial return showed councils incurred £4.8bn in extra costs. The association also now estimates that the total cost to councils – without government or organisational aid - will reach £10.9bn. 
    • The LGA have published a ‘Sustainable Future’s: Community Wealth Building’ discussion paper that looks at addressing ‘external leakage’ to locally generated wealth.  The model proposed is a holistic approach to building wealth for the people, rather than having the wealth taken out of the area. It argues that it will boost local economic development. The paper builds from examples already practising this model within the UK, such as a worker owned wholesale co-operative in Glasgow or a community land trust in Kintyre, West Scotland. The study largely justifies itself by introducing its context with ‘the richest 6 individuals have a combined fortune equal to that of the 13 million poorest’ in Britain. It also highlights that the UK and the US have already undertaken a form of community wealth development, but stresses that it needs to be further refined. 


    • An IPRR study argues that even a ‘full blown economic recovery’ in the UK will not resolve the ‘structural youth unemployment problem’. The report argues that countries where there are vocational schemes into employment is as ‘clear as an academic route’, but the courses need to be high quality as well. The report highlights that unemployment in youth has decreased over the past few years, yet there are still 868,000 still unemployed; 247,000 have been unemployed for more than a year. Further, nearly a million are classified as NEET (Not in education, employment or training). The report has 3 key recommendations: 
      • Every secondary school should be required to appoint a full-time Careers Officer responsible for careers education and guidance and for liaison with local employers;
      • Careers guidance – and some careers education – should be provided by specialist advisers, not teachers; and,
      • Careers advisers should be responsible for getting local employers more involved in schools and for providing students with up-to-date information on education and training options and on opportunities in the local labour market.


    • A group of ex-treasury advisors have called for an overhaul of the Council Tax system. They argue that the reformation could boost the economy post-Covid. Their think tank, Onward, has released a publication Bounce Bank  which suggests that Covid has presented a unique opportunity, and that the economic response must reflect the uniqueness of the situation. The answer, the report argues, is to not just right the economy after Covid but to instead rehabilitate it and improve upon those measures. The recommendations are based on four specific areas (public finances, corporate debt, jobs and skills) with each outlining problems and Onwards recommendations.

      

    • Nurseries in the most deprived areas are most at risk from closure, a report from Sutton Trust says. It states that 34% of early years providers in the most deprived areas are unsure about their future, compared to 24% in the least deprived areas. The report, found here, reports that not only are nurseries being impact already but the future of them are also in doubt. Sutton Trust reports that 42% of nurseries in deprived areas are likely to make redundancies. Key findings also include vulnerable and SEND children will suffer the most, and their families will struggle financially but ‘most likely dropped off the radar without regular attendance at their provider’. The study also highlights the mental and physical health of those children that have not attended a provider since lockdown.  


    • IFS has warned that 13 universities could ‘go bust’ without a bailout. The study examines the resilience of universities in light of Covid and estimates that losses could be anywhere between £3 billion and £19 billion. A significant amount of this is the downturn of international students not coming to UK universities due to covid concerns. As such, those with a high enrolment of international students and those with substantial pension obligations will be affected the most. Yet, the study does highlight that universities with high domestic enrolments will also be affected especially if those of the former become less selective of students and enrol more domestic based students. IFS also reports that there is a significant public health response required to aid universities. The study talks about 3 scenarios that the IFS believe could happen, and the repercussions of each.    


    • A lead economist believes that Leicester was vulnerable to a city outbreak, and it was only a matter of time. Edward Cartwright, Professor of economics at De Montford University, states that the high levels of poverty was an ‘ideal breeding ground’ for Covid. In The Conversation, Cartwright emphasises that Leicester is the 32rd most deprived local authority in England, where 41% of the children live in poverty. Due to this, Cartwright argues that workers are more likely desperate for money and will undertake any job – with or without symptoms. With that, and the housing in Leicester being crowded and with a high number of occupancies per households, Covid is easily spread. Further, with the decreasing confidence levels in businesses and consumers in Leicester, Cartwright hypothesises that this will inevitably lead to more deprivation and poverty – turning into an unbreakable loop.  


    • In Switzerland there has been a dramatic change in expenditure locations: cities have been hit hardest. The analysis shows that peripheral commuting areas, i.e. rural areas, have actually benefitted from lockdown. In some regions expenditure has been higher than pre-covid. This analysis has been based on Direct Debit payments, which has shown that expenditures are ‘spreading out’. Cities have shown a weak recovery post lockdown, yet more rural area’s seem to have recovered a lot quicker than expected.  


    HEALTH AND SOCIAL 

    • The Association of Directors for Adult Services (ADASS) has released a report on the impact of Covid on adult social care services and its finances in England. The report starts with the Adult Social Care service were ‘rendered ill equipped and under resourced… by the failure of successive governments of al political colours to recognise how essential social care is’. It rapidly evaluates three main areas (care home deaths, health in equalities and the discriminatory affect Covid has had on vulnerable people, and the courage of the staff in their continued support.  There are a range of recommendations provided from this report including a call for more, and better managed, Covid testing – particularly for those leaving hospital and more funding to help care homes continue.  


    • A recent study estimates that more than half of care homes (58%) reported at least 1 Covid-19 case. The study also showed that for each additional member of infected staff, the odds of infection for residents increased by 11%. Care home using bank or agency staff most or every day are more likely to have more residents with Covid. This is when compared to care homes that do not use bank or agency staff. Further, it is shown that care homes that provide sick leave pay are less likely to have Covid cases in residents. Again compared to care homes that do not pay for sick leave.  



    • ONS have released an interactive map showing the number of over 70’s living with younger people. ONS argue one of the biggest challenges for this age group will be when the younger generations go back to work, and the repercussions from bringing Covid back or isolation of those they have left. In Cornwall, these area’s are limited (maximum of 9% in any one LSOA area), and are mainly situated around built up areas.  


    • A Which? Survey has shown that more than ¼ of vulnerable people are still struggling to get basic essentials. Which? warn that this may lead to people starving. The study, found here, also reports that those most at risk of not accessing food have learning difficulties or are visually impaired. Further, the study found:  
      • 29% of clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) had faced recent difficulties in getting food; 
      • 40% of people that need support but are not CEV, struggled to get food the week before;  
      • 14% of those deemed CEV were having to go to the shops themselves to get food.  


    • Public Health England has released a study on the disparities of risk and outcomes of Covid-19. It summaries that Covid has replicated existing health inequalities, and in some cases, also increased them. The study reports that the largest disparity was age (80 or older were seven times more likely to die compared to those 40 or below). It also identifies geographical disparities showing that Urban local authorities had the highest diagnosis’ and deaths. Illustratively, London had three time more Covid cases than the South West. The data set is available here. 


    • The number of girls and women needing free sanitary products has significantly risen since lockdown. Charity, Bloody Good Period, reports that its normal distribution of 5,000 packs has nearly quadrupled to 23,000 over the last three months. The Governments scheme, that initiated in Janurary 2020, to give out free period products in schools is still in operation. The Charity highlights that those on the poverty line before covid have been significantly impacted as ‘if you can’t buy food, your priority is not going to be getting  period product’.  


    • Deliveroo in Scotland have trained their riders to spot signs of child abuse. This has been formed in partnership with NSPCC. This was after a case of child neglect was reported by one of the riders, earlier this year. In their statement, Deliveroo state that ‘community can play an important role in keeping children safe and spotting possible signs of child abuse, neglect and domestic violence’.  


    • Officials are lobbying for an online dashboard will reveal to local Covid cases. Following the practises from other countries, officials believe the dashboard will help minimise the chaos exhibited by the Leicester lockdown. The lobbying is centralised around the request to have covid case data public, to a postcode level. This would then allow proactive action by the public to inhibit the further break of covid.  



    • Two thirds of the public want the track and trace system in the hands of local public health teams. The research shows 67% of people surveyed want the system managed in the public sectorThe survey, conducted by We own it, also found that only 15% of respondents wanted the system handled by a private company. Further analysis about the system can be found here 


    HOUSING 




     

    ENVIRONMENT 

    • Edinburgh and Glasgow have started offering free bike hire as lockdown is eased. It is the hope that this will ease pressure on public transport services, and provide a cleaner alternative.  


    Webinars  

    • International migration in a rapidly changing world - Tue, July 28, 2020 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM BST 
      • An ONS led webinar looking at migratory patterns across the UK and the impacts the suspension of the International passenger survey in March will have on future analysis. Key topics also include: an update on our move to administrative based migration estimates (ABME), our recent travel insights analysis to understand migration during COVID-19 and future analysis and insights plans and our long-term transformation plans. 

     

    • GDPR two years on: how has data protection changed? – 7th July, 2020 11:00AM 
      • Since GDPR legislation finally passed into law in May 2018, the number of personal data breaches reported to the ICO has shot up, and the regulator has used its increased powers to levy some huge punishments. But is our information actually any safer? 
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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 19th May, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    CORNWALL 

     ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    •  Between February and April, Universal Credit applications have increased by 52.3% in Cornwall – with the two biggest increased in Newquay (78.6%) and Bude (61.5%). This information has come directly from DWP.  
    •  British Red Cross has developed a COVID-19 vulnerability index at Ward and Local Authority level. This covers demographic, clinical, economic and social vulnerabilities as well as other health needs and geographic isolation. It is also displayed in our Community Insights Map as well.  


    REGIONAL IMPACT 

    •   Two North West mayors have called for regional data on Covid-19 infection rates, warning that the change in Governments messaging from Stay at Home to Stay Alert has happened too early for their regions and with detrimentally affect their residents.  
    • Figures from the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy’s resilience index report that Woking, South Norfolk and Craven Districts are likely to be the hardest hit for loss of income from services such as parking and leisure while the public is in lockdown.   

     


    • The LGC reports that death rates from Covid-19 in the most deprived areas are more than double those in the least deprived. Although general mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, the ONS says Covid-19 appears to be taking them higher still. The councils with the highest morality rates, outside of London, are: Hertsmere, Salford, Liverpool City, Watford and Middlesbrough.  

     

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    •  More than a quarter of Care Homes deaths (27.3%) have involved Coronavirus: 31.4% of all deaths of male care home residents and 24.5% of deaths of female care home residents.  

     

     

    • Researchers at University College London, University College London NHS Trust, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK have collaborated to find out how underlying health conditions could affect mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their health data study has revealed that having an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or diabetes, increases a person’s risk of death fivefold over the next year. 
    •  
    • New research conducted by the University of Exeter and the University of Connecticut in the USA found that older people with dementia were three times more likely to have severe  COVID-19 than older people with no dementia. 
    •  
    • The Institute of Fiscal Studies has been looking at whether the ‘adverse health effects of a recession may be greater than the increased morbidity and mortality within the pandemic itself’. The study looks at the effects a recession can have on health – physically and mentally – and the knock-on effects of these to future generations.  
    •  An NSPCC survey revealed that a quarter of British adults would not know where to seek help if they thought a child was being hurt or neglected. The NSPCC also reports that there is a growing concern that vulnerable children are at risk and are ‘missing out on vital support during Covid-19 and School closures’ 
    • A UCL led study, looking at the homelessness in a Covid-19 society estimates that in a ’do nothing’ scenario 34% of the homeless population could get COVID-19 between March and August 2020, with 364 deaths, 4,074 hospital admissions and 572 critical care admissions.  
    • YouGov study shows that most teachers think the coronavirus with cause mild or moderate harm to pupils education, yet 90% of teachers who teach at GCSE level are very or fairly confident they will give their students an accurate grade, as are 84% who teach A-levels. 

    NATIONAL  

    • study jointly led by the ONS, in partnership with the Universities of Oxford and Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust, is tracking infections within a representative sample of people of all ages across England.  The study has initially estimated that between 27th April and 10th May 2020, an average of 0.27% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%). It is also estimated that an average of 148,000 people in England had COVID-19 during this time (95% confidence interval: 94,000 to 222,000). 


    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

     

    • The government have released an interactive dashboard, analysing financial and economic indicators in light of Covid-19. 

     The ONS reports, from their fortnightly survey, that the main sectors that have temporarily ceased trading were accommodation and food service (81%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (80%). 57% of responding businesses in the accommodation and food service activities sector reported their turnover had decreased by more than 50% compared with normal. 82% of adults continue to say that they have either not left their home, or only left for permitted reasons in the last 7 days, with 21% of adults say their relationships have been affected. 

     

     

    • Nearly half of adults (46%) now expect it to be longer than six months before life returns to normal compared with 1 in 3 (33%) after the first week of lockdown. Just under 1 in 4 adults said the coronavirus was affecting their household finances. There was a drop in people feeling lonely this week.  
    • The economic consumer sentiment indicator and consumer confidence indicators have dropped to their lowest ratings since 2009 

     

    Events  

     Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week – 18-24 May 

    LGA: 21st May, 1045-1145 

    As our residents continue to experience self-isolation and social distancing measures, the impact on mental health and wellbeing is becoming increasingly apparent, including for children and young people. To help councils think through their local responses, this webinar will explore the public mental health and wellbeing impacts of COVID-19 across the life course and share how councils are working with partners to support people’s mental health and wellbeing both in this immediate phase and looking ahead to recovery. Click here for more information. 

    NHS Data Improvement Team: 22nd May, 1400-1600 

    Data Driven COVID Care Models ‘virtual huddle’ where we will have a national update about population health management approaches to COVID-19, as well as hear about local approaches to support people at-risk during COVID-19. Please register for the event here. 





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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 1st July, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact 

    •  The Economic Growth Service at Cornwall Council have released a Labour Market Stress Composite that breaks down individuals accessing support schemes across CIOS.  
      • 68,500 individuals have accessed the Covid Job Retention Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top quarter of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
      • 29,200 individuals have accessed the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top 10 of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
      • 47,682 individuals received Universal Credit (as of 14th May), an increase of 91.5% when compared to March 2020. Cornwall is ranked 45 out of the 149 local authorities for increases to UC claimants. All 149 authorities have received some increase in this period. Hartlepool, sitting at 149th, has seen a 32% increase in claimants. Surrey County sits 1st with an increase of 135.8%;  
      • 1,822 individuals received Job seekers allowance as of 14th May.  
      • 54% of our economically active population are accessing support (top is Blackpool with 67% and lowest Westminster and City of London 30%).  


    National Impact 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    •  The LGA have examined inclusive economies, particularly reflecting on the importance of understanding local economies and the role of local government within them.  There is general agreement that building inclusive economies must: 
      • address inequalities; 
      • address exclusion and poverty; 
      • benefit the economy as well as being  an end in itself; 
      • focus on the nature of the economy – rather than just redistributing the gains of growth through taxes and benefits (IGAU 2019). 
         This extensive study includes a literature review and 15 stakeholder interviews which looked at how inclusive growth can be pursued by councils at three different stages. It concludes by recognising the financial hardships that local councils have had and emphasises that Covid offers a unique opportunity for major change. 
         
    • An LGA study into the changing roles of strategic centres looks at the acceleration Covid has caused to the shift to online shopping. The study looks at the potential long-term impact from this shift and the role local government has to play. It considers areas such as population changes, online expenditure and changes in work routines. The study concludes with key areas for consideration by local authorities. These include:  
      • Re-considering per capita centre floorspace requirements; 
      • Considering to rezone to support more smaller, more sustainable centres; 
      • Considering a mixed use as a way of attracting activity to centres;
      • Consider ways to enhance access to centres; 
      • To consider investment in public spaces; and,  
      • Consider new approaches to centre activation. 
    •  A Centre for Progressive Policy has found that 8 in 10 councils will struggle to meet Covid costs. This is despite Government funding since the crisis started. It argues that the government is yet to reach its full potential for financial support to local authorities The paper cites the LGA stating that £6bn is likely to be needed this year by councils. The paper also highlights that the most deprived areas will suffer the most. CPP attribute this to the existing financial gap of per capita funding enlarging, whilst further struggling to pay council and business rates.  
    •  Citizens Advice reports that nearly 1.4million migrants do not have access to welfare benefits. Those seeking advice mirrors national data demonstrating the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on people of colour’. 82% of Citizens Advice clientenquiries regarding this were from people of colour. Citizens Advice therefore recommended four changes for the Government:  
      • The No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) restriction for those subject to immigration control should be temporarily suspended; 
      • The Habitual Residence Test (HRT) should be temporarily suspended from the application process for benefits;
      • The minimum income requirement (of at least £18,600 per year) and the maintenance and accommodation requirements should be temporarily suspended for all those renewing family visas;
      • All those on a 5-year route to settlement whose income has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic should not be moved onto a 10-year route because they cannot show minimum income. 
    • Over 1.3 million households are likely to have built up council tax arrears due to CovidFollowing legislation changes on the 24 June that ends the ban on collections via bailiffsCitizens Advice reports that carers and those shielding will be hit the hardest.  ‘People who are behind on their council tax because of Covid-19 are twice as likely to have been shielding or at increased risk of the virus’. They are also four times more likely to be caring for older family members. The article reports that LGA figures show over £500m of council tax has gone unpaid. Citizens Advice call on the Government to review council tax measures and implement ‘simple changes’ to help.  They call for more flexibility to recover debts outside of court proceedings.  
    • A UCL study states that adults in the lowest socio-economic group have been financially hit the hardest. The study suggests that this group is nine times more likely to struggle with bills than higher socio-economic groups. The study argues that the lowest group were 7.2 times more likely to be unable to pay bills in week 1. This rose to 8.7 in week 3. Food bills are also a struggle and shows that the group were 4.1 times more unlikely to be able to buy sufficient food in week 1. UCL highlights that whilst communities have got closer and stronger, the pandemic has also exposed and widened health inequalities within societies.  
    • An LSE Paper discusses the impact that Covid will have on political trust. It concludes that young people who have been exposed to an epidemic will have less trust in political institutions for the rest of their lives. Specifically, those exposed to epidemics aged 18-25 have less confidence in political leaders, governments and elections. The research has also found that life-long distrust is mainly for democratic countries only. It is not the same for autocratic countries. This may be due to more pro-active involvement in democracies and expectations that leaders should be more responsive to citizen concerns. It may also be due to democracies struggling to keep a consistent message.  
    • A study has been released looking at high streets and their come back. The study looks at city and town centres, using Grimsby as an example, suggesting areas for revitalisation. The model focuses on taking central power from Government and putting it back into local communities. It outlines recommendations on environmental impacts, devolution, taxation, property and transport. The report analyses the cultural shift pre-covid in line with a ‘required radical shift’ in local planning post covid. 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

    • A new study warns that a mental health crisis is around the cornerThe LGA has compared the mental health trends and outcomes from some of the biggest economic disasters in recent years. It states that if such trends were to be followed, Covid may have the biggest impact of all. The LGA emphasises that whilst mental health services will prepare, there needs to be a ‘community’ recovery response. This response needs to ensure resilience for future incidents. Consequentially to the pandemic, the LGA argues that local authorities need to understand and mitigate against the mental health implications for services and policies in their responses to the economic fall out 
    • New data from the ONS shows mental health concerns within the Shielding Cohort. More than one-third (37%) of people asked to shield report a worsening in their mental health. This rises to around half (49%) among 50- to 59-year-olds, compared with 26% for those aged 75 years and over. Clinically extremely vulnerable females report worsening mental health than males, no matter their age band.  
    • There have been some positive mental health outcomes from this epidemic56% of a lifestyle survey respondents said that they were now able to spend more quality time with people they lived with While 50% were enjoying a slower pace of life47% preferred that they were spending less time travelling. Almost all (96%) of respondents are exercising more and want this to continue in recovery.  
    • Early data from The University of Bristol shows that anxiety levels have doubled in young people. During lockdown, anxiety levels have increased from 13% to 24%. The Children of the 90’s study shows that 27-29 year olds have heightened anxiety. However, there was no evidence that depression levels are any higher overall.  Specific groups of individuals were still at higher risk of both depression and anxiety in the COVID-19 period. These were women: 
      • With pre-existing mental and physical health conditions; 
      • Who were living alone; 
      • Were self-isolating as a result of COVID-19; and,  
      • Who had experienced recent financial problems.  

     Interestingly though the report showed that some factors, such as living alone, were only linked to greater depression. Others, such as being a parent, was only linked to anxiety. These findings were in both the younger and older generations.  

    •  Barnardo’s announces a ‘state of emergency’ for fostering children. As a result of Covid, there has been a 44% increase in children needing foster care. Foster parent applications also plummeted by nearly half (47%), compared to the same period last year.  
    •  ONS data reports an increasing trend of more men dying from Covid than women. Between 9th– 25th May, 4,761 Covid deaths were recorded. Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were men. Statistically, there are 19.1 deaths per 100,000 for men compared to a significantly lower ratio for women (9.7). 


    •  IPRR analysis suggests that if the UK matched international rates of performance, an estimated 20,000 deaths could have been avoidedThe paper is clear that the UK has always led medical innovation. But the UK struggles with implementing innovation quickly. If this was overcome, the paper suggests those deaths would have been avoided The paper attributes the lower performance to three key areas: 
      • A risk adverse culture, driven by the focus on performance management and short term goals; 
      • The ‘sheer complexity of the NHS’; and,
      • Lack of resources – particularly a lack of financial support.  

     The article continues to make a range of policy recommendations to consider. This is in two parts, starting with long term institutional framework changes. The second being changes to local providers and commissioners.  

     ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 

    •  New research reveals huge public support for putting nature at the heart of the post-covid recovery strategy. RSPB reports that there is strong public opposition (80%) to the Government reducing spending on nature with 84% of respondents supporting increasing the number of accessible nature-rich areas in the UK. 
    •   The Conversation has released a discussion article on zero carbon homes leading the green recovery Post Covid. The articles states that 28% of all current carbon emissions are attributed to buildings, with retrofitting in homes being key. The article discusses that 80% of homes that exist today will still exist, in and be lived in, in 2050.  

    Extra Reading 

    To control beach overcrowding, the Italian government have produced an municipality app for residents to book spaces.  

    The LGA have released a tool kit for councils. This online toolkit aids councils for revitalising town centres with guidance and resources.  

    The LGA have also released a ‘bundle’ on their analysis to Covid and the economy. 

     Webinars 

    Launch of CPRE, the countryside charity’s Post-coronavirus regeneration manifesto, 9-10am on Wednesday 1 July 

    This webinar will launch CPRE’s manifesto, which is our response to the coronavirus pandemic. It includes recommendations to policy makers on how we can regenerate ourselves, regenerate our green spaces and regenerate our rural economies post-pandemic. Speakers include Rt Hon Philp Dunne MP, Chair of the Environmental Audit CommitteeMike Amesbury MP, Shadow Planning MinisterCaroline Lucas MP, Former Leader of the Green PartyRhiane Fatinikun, Founder, Black Girls Hike; and, Crispin Truman OBE, Chief Executive, CPRE The countryside charity. 

     

    CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency panel discussion9-10am on Wednesday 8 July 

    This panel discussion will be an opportunity to discuss CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency, touching on energy, housing, landscapes, transport and farming. Speakers include Rt Hon George Eustice MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsLuke Pollard MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsBaroness Bennett of Manor Castle, Former Leader of the Green PartyFreddie Northcott, youth climate activist; and, Tom Fyans, Director of Policy and Campaigns, CPRE The countryside charity 

     

    Working with the voluntary and community sector to support communitiesWednesday 15 July 2020, 10.30am - 11.30am 

    This LGA lead webinar will hear from national and local speakers, to discuss their e4xpereinces on the value of community and the voluntary sector. There will also be discussions around future challenges.  

    Spotlight on Green Reset, Wednesday 11th July, 10.00am – 11.30am 

    This LGA lead webinar will disucss the opportunity Covid has had for our climate change aspirations. It will explore local government steps to ensure short and long term responses to Covid correlate with sustainability measures. Speakers include Cllr David Renard, Chair, LGA’s Environment, Economy, Housing and Transport Board and Leader, Swindon Borough CouncilCllr Clyde Loakes, Deputy Leader, London Borough of Waltham ForestJo Wall, Strategic Director (Climate Response), Local Partnerships; and, Nicki Butterworth, Director of Neighbourhood Services, Wirral Council. 

     

     

     

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  • Intelligence Bulletin 13th May, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    CORNWALL 

    • Research by CIoS LEP and Economic Growth has shown that if the entire tourist season is lost, Cornwall is looking at estimated losses of £1.5bn pounds.  

     

    • Potential net job losses in Cornwall as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown is 72,800. The majority of the job losses being concentrated in the following sectors: ‘Accommodation & Food Services’ a loss of 29,200 and ‘Wholesale, Retail & Motors’ losing 21,300 jobs overall. Other sectors with significant job losses are: ‘Education’ and ‘Manufacturing’ a net loss of 4,600 jobs, and ‘Arts, entertainment & recreation’ with an overall loss of 4,500. 
    • The number of successful Universal Credit claims has continued to grow since March 2019, reaching 24,934 in March 2020. Cornwall saw a +110% increase in calls to Cornwall’s Citizens Advice service regarding ‘initial benefit claims’ compared to April 2019. 
    • Data from Cornwall Council’s Together for Families Team show that there has been a +401% increase in per pupil applications for free school meals in April 2020 compared to April 2019: from 196 to 983 total applications. 
    • April 2020 saw a +142% increase in the numbers of CTS claims decided compared to April 2019. 


    NATIONAL 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • The Resolution Foundation weekly figures on economic impact of Covid-19 show that the flow of new Universal Credit claimants has slowed significantly in recent weeks but remains three times above the pre-crisis level. 
    • According to Citizens’ advice 6.3 million employees have been furloughed via the Job  Retention Scheme - nearly a quarter of all employees. There has been a 35% increase in people coming to CA for help with their initial claim for Universal Credit compared to the same period 6 months ago 
    • New research from Citizens Advice also shows that over 13 million people have already been unable to pay, or expect to be unable to pay, at least one bill because of the coronavirus outbreak. Of these, almost 11 million have missed or expect to miss a bill that would leave them vulnerable to severe consequences - including eviction, bailiff enforcement or disconnection - when Covid-19 financial protections end. 
    • The Food Foundation furthermore highlight that five million people in the UK living in households with children under 18 have experienced food insecurity since the lockdown started. 1.8 million of these experienced food insecurity solely due to the lack of supply of food in shops, leaving 3.2 million people (11% of households) suffering from food insecurity due to other issues such as loss of income or isolation. This is double the level of food insecurity among households with children reported by the Food Standards Agency in 2018 (5.7%). 


    IMPACT ON SPECIFIC GROUPS 

    • ONS data show a total of 2,494 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the working age population (aged 20-64 years)Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (1,612 deaths). Men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths).  
    • Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths). Healthcare workers, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, were not found to have higher rates of death involving COVID-19 when compared with the rate among those whose death involved COVID-19 of the same age and sex in the general population. 
    • Youth unemployment in the UK could rise by 640,000 this year - taking the total above one million, a report from the Resolution Foundation found.  It said school leavers were hardest hit by recessions and it called for more support to prevent "years of reduced pay and limited job prospects". 
    • Research by the Fawcett Society show 51% of parents with young children will struggle to make ends meet in the next three months, and 57% face higher levels of debt after the crisis. It also finds that women who are working outside the home are more likely to be keyworkers, with six in ten (61%) compared with four in ten (43%) men saying their work is essential at this time 
    • The Resolution Foundation also suggest that key workers are disproportionately likely to be female, with employed women more than twice as likely to be in this group as employed men. Parents are more likely to be key workers than non-parents, and mothers even more so; 39 per cent of working mothers were key workers before this crisis began, compared to just 27 per cent of the working population as a whole 



     

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 27th May, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Cornwall  

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • This page provides constituency statistics on Universal Credit in Great Britain, including our estimate of how far caseload rollout has progressed to date. 

    SOCIO-CULTURAL IMPACT 

    • The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 561 as at 18th May which is a rate of 98.7 per 100,000. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (80.6), North East Lincolnshire (92.6) and Dorset (93.5) have lower rates.  
    • 174 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 8th May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period. 
    • Analysis by the University of St. Andrews reveals that the Welsh, Gaelic- and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK. If the pandemic is to last long and the virus is to spread to all areas of the UK, remote small towns and rural communities are projected to have 50 to 80% higher death rates than the main cities because of their old population composition.  

      • Data collated by OCSI shows that March to April saw the largest single monthly increase in recorded unemployment – 850,000 new claimants across the UK (an increase of 66%). The increase is widespread, with every Local Authority in the UK seeing unemployment rise by more than one-third; and 76 of the 379 Local Authorities in the UK seeing their unemployment rate more than double in a single month. Local Authorities with seaside resorts see largest rise in unemployment rates, incl. the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall.