The Cornwall We Know

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Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help our understanding of Cornwall and the impact of various data points/ information that has affected our residents and businesses.

Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help our understanding of Cornwall and the impact of various data points/ information that has affected our residents and businesses.

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 5 October, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local impact

    Health

    • The average number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in Cornwall has dropped for the first time since the beginning of September. While the total number of detected cases has risen to around 1500 cases since March, the 7-day average for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has declined to around 26 positive cases per day.  The infection rate stands at 259 cases per 100,000 resident population. However, a number of clusters have recently been identified, such as the 170 positive cases that had been detected at a meat processing plant in Pool, with the majority of those who tested positive being asymptomatic.

    People testing positive for Covid-19
    Cornwall and Isles of Scilly
    Source: Public Health England (Link)

    Economy

    • Since the easing of lockdown restrictions in July, around two million visitors came to Cornwall, according to Visit Cornwall. At a meeting of the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) last week, Visit Cornwall Chairman Malcolm Bell called for more financial backing to avoid job losses, as lockdown deficits were still not being made up. However, Mr Bell said he expected visitor numbers for October and November to be higher than in previous years.
    • Leisure Centres across Cornwall will reopen mid-October. Cornwall Council issued a £4million rescue package as well as additional support measures, allowing Greenwich Leisure Ltd (who run the centres) to reopen Saltash, Launceston, Wadebridge and St Ives leisure centres, Ships & Castles in Falmouth and the swimming pools at Bude, Liskeard and Helston.



    National impact

    Health

    • The latest technical fault in the government’s Covid-19 testing data system has led to nearly 16,000 unreported cases in England between 25 September and 2 October. Cases were added to Public Health England’s daily figures over the weekend, creating a spike in the number of detected cases. So far, more people tested positive than during the first peak of the pandemic in April/May. However, the number of processed tests has also risen. While during the first major outbreak in April/May on average there were only around 20,000 tests being processed in England each day, now the number has risen to more than 200,000 tests, leading to more cases being detected.
    • The Office for National Statistics’ Covid-19 Infection Study shows that around 116,000 people (0.21% of the community population) in England had Covid-19 between 18 and 24 September 2020. The infection rate is highest among teenagers and young adults. Furthermore, almost half of all adults in Great Britain said their well-being was being affected by the pandemic.

    Estimated percentage of the population testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) on nose and throat swabs, daily, by age group since 14 August 2020, England


    Economy

    • The chief economist of the Bank of England has criticised the media for their lack of acknowledgement of the UK’s economic recovery so far. Andy Haldane made headlines last week by saying that Britain’s rapid recovery from its Covid-19 slump was being put at risk by undue pessimism and a “Chicken Licken” fear that the sky was about to fall in. Prior to Mr Haldane’s comments, ONS figures demonstrated a fall in GDP by almost 20% between April and June, the largest quarterly contraction in the UK economy since records began in 1955.
    • The ONS Opinion and Lifestyle Survey indicates that the new restrictions announced by the government on 22 September has led to a drop in people leaving home to socialise. Only 2 in 10 adults said they had visited friends and family at their home, a decline by around 10% to the previous week. A similar trend can be observed for eating out and travel within the UK for holidays.
    • With the new 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants causing concerns for the night time economy, the British public is divided on whether the re-opening of pubs was a good idea. According to a recent Yougov poll, half of the British public say the re-opening of pubs was a mistake, while over 40% think it was a good decision. A similar split can be observed when it comes to the question of whether students should be allowed to go back to university.


    Transport

    • A report by the National Audit Office reveals that local authorities in England have reduced spending on local transport by 40% over the past decade. At the same time, passenger numbers have fallen and the number of bus journeys outside London shrunk by 10%. The report claims that despite the Department for Transport’s aim to increase the use of public transport, there has not been any systemic improvement yet. The roll-out of Cornwall’s ‘Superbus network’ is scheduled for next year.
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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 28 September, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local impact

    Health

    • Cornwall has seen another rise in Covid-19 cases. More than 120 people tested positive from 21 to 27 September, raising the total number of cases in Cornwall above 1300 and  the infection rate per 100,000 to around 230, with local outbreaks recorded in a number of locations, such as the Isles of Scilly, Exeter University, HMS Raleigh and a meat processing plant in Pool. The South West, however, still has the lowest infection rate per 100,000 population of all regions in England.
    • The leader of Cornwall Council, Julian German, has criticised the government’s Track & Trace system. At the council meeting last Tuesday, the council leader said that after listening to the experiences of members of the public it was "clear from the sheer volume of responses that the system isn’t working, and I’m deeply concerned that people of Cornwall are suffering as a result". He added: “If we are to beat this virus, we need a testing system that is fit for purpose. I worry that at this present moment we don’t have one.”
    • The RNLI has extended their lifeguard cover of major beaches in Cornwall by a month. A RNLI spokesperson said this year had been one of the busiest summers the region had ever seen, an effect of lockdown and restrictions on travel abroad.

    Economy

    • Four cities in Cornwall will benefit from the government’s Towns Fund. The funding, ranging from £500,000 up to £1m, will be used to kick start regeneration projects such as new green spaces, pop-up business spaces, or pedestrianizing streets. Among the Cornish cities being supported are Camborne, Penzance, St Ives and Truro.
    • Prior to the recent changes in government’s guidance on working from home, the return to workplaces in Cornwall had been increasing slowly. Analysis of Google Mobility Data (undertaken by the Intelligence Network) shows how the number of people visiting workplaces had been rising but remained below pre-lockdown levels. As people are now again urged to work from home wherever possible, this upward trend is likely to be reverted, having likely knock-on effects for city centres.



    Housing

    • Cornwall’s millionaire property market seems to have benefited from the pandemic. Rightmove data indicates that the market for properties worth £1 million or more has seen an annual increase of 165%, making Cornwall the county with the third biggest rise in sales of properties with an asking price of £1 million or more, after Norfolk and Wiltshire. Industry experts say that lockdown has made £1million-plus buyers re-assess their work-life balance which in turn has led to an uptake in ‘lifestyle relocations’.

    Migration

    • For the first time in over decade, Cornwall is experiencing a negative net migration rate. New analysis of local area migration, based on the Long-Term International Migration data published by the Office for National Statistics, shows that between mid-2018 and mid-2019 more people were leaving Cornwall to take up residence in another country than the other way around. It is estimated that in 2019 only 2% of the people living in Cornwall were non-British. Local area migration plays an important role for employment, skills, and the provision of local services.


    National Impact

    Health

    • The government has announced further national measures to address rising cases of coronavirus in England. The new rules see bars and restaurants close at 10pm, wedding ceremonies limited to 15 people, and office workers urged to work from home where possible. The new rules are expected to remain in place until March next year.
    • Meanwhile, Coronavirus cases in England have risen by 60% over the past week, bringing the R-value to 1.2-1.5. On Friday, the daily number of positive cases in the UK rose to a new high of 6,874.
    • According to a recent YouGov poll, the majority of people support the new lockdown measures announced by the Prime Minister last week. The main criticism of the package, however, is that it does not go far enough. 78% are in favour of the new measures, while those who oppose the latest raft of measures represent just 17% of the population. It is slightly higher among some groups, most notably the young, but it is a minority among all demographic groups.

    Economy

    • Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a replacement for the furlough scheme which will come to an end at the end of October. The new job support scheme is scheduled to begin on 1 November and is due to last six months. To be eligible for the scheme, employees must work at least a third of their normal hours. They will be paid two-thirds of their pay for the remaining hours. The government pays a third of the hours not worked, while the employers pay the other third.
    • More people in Britain were returning to work prior to the change in government guidance on working from home. Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that over 6 in 10 (64%) working adults travelled to work, either exclusively or in combination with working from home. Only 6% said they were going to work all hours from home. With home working now being encouraged again, this trend is likely to change.

    Housing

    • Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick has announced that renters affected by coronavirus will continue to be protected from evictions for another 4 weeks. The government also requires landlords to provide tenants with 6 months’ notice, unless they are dealing with serious cases of antisocial behaviour or domestic abuse. The homeless charity Shelter had previously warned more than 300,000 private renters had fallen into arrears since the pandemic started and were at risk of being evicted.




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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 22nd September, 2020

    by Matt2, almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact 

    Economy

    The UK Tourism minister has praised the tourism industry in Cornwall and Devon for their response to the pandemic and professionalism and dedication in what has been a very difficult summer period.  Mr Huddleston also commented that the government’s Eat Out to Help Out schemes had had a positive impact on the industry and economy, and although some measures would remain in place until next year, he was unable to comment on further support

    Health

    The highest daily increase (26) of new cases of coronavirus was recorded in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly since April 30th, when 26 cases were also registered.  September 11th saw the first coronavirus-related hospital death in Cornwall recorded since July 2nd.

    National Impact

    On Monday 21st September the government’s chief medical adviser warned the country is facing a "very challenging winter period" and critical point in the coronavirus pandemic.  If no further restrictions are introduced, the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October, leading to about ‘200 deaths per day’ a month later.  On 20th September a further 3,899 daily cases and 18 deaths were reported in the UK.  Prof Whitty added, “We are now going into the seasons... that benefit respiratory viruses”.  The government are expected to make an announcement regarding further restrictions to stop the spread of the virus, which may include limiting contact between households.

    Economy

    National analysis and data shows the percentage of businesses that had been trading for more than the previous two weeks was 95% between 7 and 16 September 2020 (a further 1% had restarted in the last two weeks, 4% remained temporarily closed), whilst retail sales volumes (in August) increased by 0.8% when compared with July; an increase of 4.0% when compared with February’s pre-pandemic level. Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.6% in July 2020 but is 11.7% lower than the February 2020 level, and the UK unemployment rate for the three months to July 2020 was 4.1%; this is 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

    According to HMRC figures, some 80,433 employers have returned cash they were given to help cover workers' salaries through the government’s furlough scheme, more than £215m.  Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) - or furlough scheme - workers placed on leave received 80% of their pay, up to a maximum of £2,500 a month.  £35.4bn has been claimed under the scheme up until 16 August.  The government has rejected calls to extend the furlough scheme when it ends on 31 October, despite warnings that it could trigger a wave of job cuts.

    Office for National Statistics figures reveal that nearly two in three workers are commuting again, with the government encouraging workers to return to help revive city centres. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that 62% of adult workers reported travelling to work last week, compared with 36% in late May.  Business groups have warned that city centres could become "ghost towns" if more workers do not return to offices, impacting small businesses that rely on passing trade from office workers.  However, new research released by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) suggests that working from home could be a permanent fixture for many, following the pandemic with 37% of those surveyed believing staff will regularly avoid the journey into the office following Covid-19 - up from just 18% before the pandemic.

    The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has unanimously voted to hold interest rates at their record low of 0.1%. The BoE said that despite a stronger than expected recovery in recent months, the economy remains around 7% smaller than at the end of 2019. The Bank also warned that the increasing rate of coronavirus infections and uncertainty over the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU threaten Britain’s economic recovery.

    The government has introduced new laws which states that people who are instructed to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace, and are on lower incomes and cannot work from home, and have lost income as a result of self-isolating, will receive a support payment of £500. New fines for those breaching self-isolation rules will also start at £1,000.  The government states it recognises that self-isolation is one of the most powerful tools for controlling the transmission of Covid-19, and this support payment will ensure that those on low incomes are able to self-isolate without worry about their finances.  Just under 4 million people who are in receipt of benefits in England will be eligible for the payment, which will be available to those who are required to self-isolate from 28 September and in place via local authorities by 12 October (backdated payments).

    Housing

    Housing charity Shelter and district councils have warned that hundreds of thousands of private renters have fallen into arrears during the coronavirus pandemic or are otherwise at risk of being made homeless as the furlough scheme ends and unemployment rises. Calls for a ban on evictions to be extended or made permanent are being made amid fears it could provoke a surge in homelessness and contribute to a rise in coronavirus infections.  Following a temporary government ban on landlords evicting tenants, eviction hearings can restart in England and Wales from 21st September.

    Social care and health 

    The Department of Health and Social Care has announced that an additional £546m in funding will be allocated to care homes to help protect residents from winter COVID-19 outbreaks. The funding will pay for PPE such as facemasks, gloves and aprons, and will enable homes to continue paying the full wages of carers and other staff if they develop COVID-19 symptoms.

    People visiting care homes in areas with high numbers of coronavirus cases will be required to be constantly supervised as part of the Government's adult social care winter action plan.  Visits should be limited, and in facilities listed as being an area of intervention, visits should be halted altogether except in "exceptional circumstances".

    Environment

    New monthly interim indicators for Natural England’s People and Nature Survey for England show that almost half the population (46%) are spending more time outside than before COVID-19 (up from 44% in June and 26% in May). With 42% of adults reporting that ‘nature and wildlife is more important than ever to my wellbeing’ and 35% visiting local green and natural spaces more often.


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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 14 September, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Cornwall Impact

    Economy

    • Data released by NOMIS today shows the out of work benefit claimant count is still the highest amongst the 18-24 age bracket in Cornwall, with 10% claiming, whereas the South West figures is 7.9% and it is 9.4% for Great Britain. The 10% claimant rate represents the lowest figure since April. There is also a greater proportion of men claiming benefits (7.5%) than women (4.9%).

    National Impact

    Economy

    • Unemployment in Britain increased to 4.1% during May, June and July, this equates to 1.4 million people. 4.1% represents a rise on the 3.9% recorded in the previous three months. Those aged 16-24 were the hardest hit out of all age groups. The full impact of the pandemic is expected to be shown post October when the furlough scheme ends, more than 10 million people have benefitted from the job retention scheme.
    • The Professional Association of Self-Caterers are warning of yet more upheaval in the UK’s self-catering and holiday cottages market as the ‘rule of 6’ could leave larger properties standing empty. Under the previous rules in England, two families were permitted to meet if they observed social distancing measures up to a maximum of 30 people, but now holiday firms offering properties sleeping 7 or more will have to consider alternatives.
    • Several UK retail and leisure businesses have announced reopening plans following lockdown.  The Co-op is planning to open 50 new stores, creating 1,000 new jobs, Pret A Manger has announced a new coffee subscription service to attract customers back into stores, whilst toy store Lego will be opening 14 new stores in the UK as it enjoys the result of good sales worldwide during the pandemic.
    • New figures from the Institute for Employment Studies shows that employers in Britain are planning more than twice as many redundancies than they did at the height of the last recession with 380,000 job cuts planned from May to July this year compared to around 180,000 from January to March 2009.  Completed redundancies could reach 735,000 this autumn.
    • Recent ONS research shows that the number of people who thought it would take more than a year for life to return to normal, if at all, rose from 2 in 10 in mid-June to 3 in 10 by the end of July.   Of businesses not permanently stopped trading, 36% of the workforce were working remotely instead of at their normal place of work.

    Housing

    • Housing secretary Robert Jenrick announced that the government have declared a truce on enforcement action for tenants facing eviction in England and Wales this Christmas. Evictions will not be enforced in areas in a local lockdown. Notice periods for eviction have also been increased to 6 months as the pandemic continues. Court proceedings for evictions will restart on 21 September, but evictions will not be enforced by bailiffs in local lockdown areas.

    Social Care and Health 

    • In July more than 2 million people across England are waiting for hospital treatment, more than triple the figure for 2019. The President of the Royal College of Surgeons of England highlighted that some of these patients require treatment to get back to work, therefore this represents not only a health issue but also an economic issue.
    • Addiction services in England could struggle to cope with "soaring" numbers of people misusing alcohol, the Royal College of Psychiatrists is warning.  Data shows that many adults are drinking more since the coronavirus pandemic began, with the college estimating that in June, more than 8.4m people in England were drinking at higher-risk levels, up from 4.8m in February.   The college is asking the government to invest millions more in addiction services as the rise in risky drinking comes at a time when more people addicted to opiates are seeking help from addiction services.
    • The Trussell Trust has predicted that at least 670,000 extra people will become destitute and in need of charity food parcels by Christmas as coronavirus job and income support schemes are wound down.
    • NHS Providers, which represents English hospital trusts, has said that a lack of coronavirus tests for NHS staff is leading to staff absences and services being put at risk, with staff having to self-isolate because they cannot get tests for themselves or family members. Whilst a network of over 5,000 school heads also say there is growing frustration at the lack of access to testing and the potential impact and staff shortages that could force partial closures in schools.  Government figures show the current capacity for daily testing is more than 350,000 - which includes swab tests and antibody tests - with the aim to increase to 500,000 a day by the end of October.



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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 08 September, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact  

    Economy

    • The Eat out to Help Out scheme figures were released last week. Comparatively, in the South West, Cornwall had the fourth largest number of registered restaurants (988), with the second highest number of meals claimed (1,178,000) and amount of discount claimed (6,670,000). Broken down to Cornwall’s parliamentary constituencies, St Ives has the highest number of registered restaurants, North Cornwall had the highest number of meals claimed and highest amount of discount claimed:  







    Parliamentary constituency code 

    Parliamentary Constituency 

    Total number of registered restaurants 

    Total number of meals claimed for 

    Total amount of discount claimed (£) 

    Average discount per meal (£) 

    E14000616 

    Camborne and Redruth 

    119 

    128,000.00 

    747,000.00 

    5.83 

    E14000837 

    North Cornwall 

    188 

    266,000.00 

    1,505,000.00 

    5.66 

    E14000938 

    South East Cornwall 

    114 

    109,000.00 

    606,000.00 

    5.55 

    E14000961 

    St Austell and Newquay 

    186 

    249,000.00 

    1,346,000.00 

    5.41 

    E14001003 

    Truro and Falmouth 

    186 

    176,000.00 

    1,035,000.00 

    5.88 

    E14000964 

    St Ives 

    195 

    250,000.00 

    1,431,000.00 

    5.72 

     

    Climate 

    Health

    •  The ONS has published provisional monthly figures showing the number of COVID-19 deaths and age-standardised mortality rates in England and Wales from March to July 2020, by age, sex, and local authority.  Deaths by MSOA (Middle Layer Super Output Area), Rural-Urban Classification and Travel to Work Areas (including in Cornwall) are also available. ONS analysis shows that COVID-19 has had a proportionally higher impact on the most deprived areas of England, with the age-standardised mortality rate in July being more than double the mortality rate in the least deprived areas (3.1 deaths per 100,000 population compared to 1.4), echoing results seen in previous months.  Cornwall is currently ranked 83rd out of 317 local authority areas for deprivation (where a rank of 1 has the highest proportion of the population living in the most deprived neighbourhoods). 17 of Cornwall’s 326 neighbourhoods (Lower Super Output Areas) are considered in the top 10% most deprived areas in England.    



    National Impact

    Economy 

    Health, Social Care and Children’s:  

    Climate:  


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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 01 September, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact

    Surfers Against Sewage say they have seen an “explosion” of discarded masks and plastic on beaches and in rivers. The Cornwall bases Surfers Against Sewage have highlighted the governments roll back on the 5p plastic back charge to support food deliveries and the postponement of the ban on straws, stirrers and cotton-bud sticks that was weeks away from being introduced.


    National 

    Economy

    Low income, employed people may be able to claim up to £182 if they have to self-isolate in certain parts of England. People who claim Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit, and can only work from work premises, will be able to get money equating to £13 a day.

    The Arts and Leisure industry still has the largest proportion of workforce still furloughed, with 51% still furloughed. In second, the hospitality industry with 27% of their workforce still furloughed. 23% of arts and entertainment businesses are reporting the risk of insolvency as severe to moderation. Across all businesses, 11% are reporting the same.

    The number of working and workless households has remained stable throughout lockdown, according to the ONS. It estimated that between April and the end of June, 59.6% of all households had at least one member working, while 13.1% of all households have no members working.

    Croydon Council have said a “balanced budget” cannot be assured, with bankruptcy a possibility. The local authority faces a £65.4m overspend in the 20/21 financial year and only has £10m of reserve funds. To address the situation an independently chaired finance review has been set up and recruitment has been frozen.

    Worldwide, people working from home are doing on average almost an extra hour a day longer than they were prior to the pandemic according to research from National Bureau of Economic Research. The study from NBER analysed data from 21,000 companies across the US, Europe and the Middle East.

    A survey of 285 low-income families show 80% are now in a worse financial position than before the crisis. Reasons for the change were a fall in income, job losses and an increase in living costs. Half of the respondents said the were “much worse off” and more than three-quarters said the pandemic had affected their ability to pay for food and utilities.

    Education

    Research by the NFER has shown that the educational gap between rich and poor pupils has widened by 46%, due to the lockdown. Average estimates in a poll of almost 3,000 school leaders in England suggest pupils are three months behind in their curriculum, with the situation judged to be worse in schools in more deprived areas. The study from the National Foundation for Educational Research claimed over half of teachers in the study estimate that the learning gap between disadvantaged pupils and their peers has widened. Reasons relate to remote learning and levels of pupil and parent engagement.

    Housing

    Homelessness charities are calling for the Government to extend their support for prison leavers. Ministry of Justice figures show that during the first month of lockdown, over 1,000 people were released from prison. The scheme, that provided a £6.4m pilot has helped offenders stay off the streets; however charities say that unless released offenders are supported, reoffending rates will rise with no protection from COVID.

    Health and Social Care

    According to analysis using global data, obesity increased the risk of dying from COVID by 48%, with fears that the vaccine will also be less effective. Additionally, the study showed that obese people were 74% more likely to be admitted to intensive care.  

    Crime 

    ONS findings from the Telephone operated Crime Survey for England and Wales has found that there is an estimated 32% reduction in total crime (this excludes fraud and computer misuse). The study analyses data during April and May 2020, and is compared to a two-month average before the lockdown initiated. Whilst nationally, data down a reduced, local data shows that crime levels have stayed the same. Additionally, parents of children aged 10-15 years old reporting negative online experiences is around 1 in 10.

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  • Intelligence Newsletter - 25 August, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Cornwall – local impact 

    Economy  

    Climate Impact 

    • On Sunday, Cornwall’s Lithium potential featured in Countryfile with visits to United Downs and interviews of local geologists at Cornish Lithium. Find the coverage on iPlayer.  
    • Cornwall has been selected to help kick start the nature recovery under the Local Nature Recovery Strategies pilot that will map the most valuable sites and habitats for wildlife restoration.  

    And in other Cornish news…  

    • The Cornish Shuffle dance is a new dance craze! The craze, initiated by a local NHS psychiatrist, hopes to increase social connections and benefits our physical and mental health. You can visit a dedicated YouTube channel and to see a breakdown of the steps and a demo video. 

     

    National Impact

    Crime 

    • Panorama investigation reveals that domestic abuse has surged during lockdown. An FOI from UK police forces found that one domestic abuse call was made every 30 seconds in the first seven weeks of lockdown. These reports included kidnap, arson, revenge porn and poisoning.  

     Housing  

    • July 2020 was the busiest month for buying houses in 10 years, according to Rightmove. They report that more than £37bn worth of property sales were conducted. In July 2019, £25bn worth of sales were conducted. 
    • During lockdown it is estimated that nearly 18,000 households across England have been made homeless. From FOI responses to 212 councils, 22,798 households applied for support after 1st April. The article outlines that this is only reporting 2/3rds of England’s households, which they estimate as 33,000 households for all local authorities were made homeless. The final figure removes the 15,000 households that were allocated housing under the governments scheme.  
    • A two year partnership between Tesco Mobile and Crisis (the homelessness charity) will enable homeless people digital connectivity. The scheme will provide £700,000 worth of smartphones and internet data to homeless people in England. Crisis has already provided 1000 mobile phones since the start of lockdown, and is now urging the public to donate their old smartphones. The scheme will support connection to family and access to health care guidance.  

    Social Care and Health  

    • Imperial College London researchers have found evidence linking Diabetes Type 1 to Coronavirus in children. During the heights on the pandemic, the Imperial College NHS trust saw a significant increase of diabetes type 1 admissions – on further investigation, a number of these had positive coronavirus testing.   
    • Specialist public health registrars have raised fears that scrapping the Public Health England organisation would risk a second coronavirus waveThis follows the announcement from the Health Secretary last Tuesday that said the PHE will be replaced by the National Institute for Health Protection (NIHP).  
    • Research from Public Health England (PHE) reveals there was an outbreak of coronavirus at only one in 10,000 schools when some reopened for select year groups in June. Outbreaks in schools were typically small in size and more than half involved just one secondary case, the report added, with PHE insisting they were all “successfully contained. 
    • Reports of depression during lockdown increase to 19.2% (1 in 5) from 9.7% (1 in 10). A number of factors were found to feed into this, including unexpected expenditure worries (1 in 3 adults), unemployment, loneliness (61.7%) and future uncertainty. According to the ONS there were no statistically significant differences between rural and urban areas. More than half of all adults experienced high level of anxiety during the lockdown. There are a number of factors that have been associated with the development of moderate to sever depressive symptoms, pre and post COVID, which have fed into this increase:  

    • There was also a significant increase of disabled adults (around a third) experiencing moderate to severe depressive symptoms: 

    • In conjunction with the Universities of Oxford and Manchester, Public Health England and the Wellcome Trust, the ONS have published their COVID Infection Survey which looks at the characteristics of people that have tested positive for COVIDThe conclusions: 
      • Evidence shows that Asian or Asian British individuals are more likely to test positive for COVID than White individuals.  
      • One-person households were more likely to test positive for COVID than in two people households – there is no evidence of differences for larger households.  
      • Individuals working in health care have a higher percentage of testing positive for anti-bodies, suggesting previous infection, than those not working in a health care setting.  
      • From nose and throat swabs over the last 8 weeks, there is no evidence to shows likelihood of infection between age groups nor any evidence of infection preference between gender. 

    Economy  

    • Analysis by the ONS into retail sales shows that in total July sales are higher than pre-lockdown. Since its lowest, in April, sales have increased by 3.6% on a monthly basis. However, breaking down the sectors, analysis shows that fuel and non sale foods are below levels of pre-lockdown with clothes sales recovering the worst (still 25.7% lower than pre-lockdown).  

    Climate impacts 

    • The UK’s centre of excellence for local carbon and fuel cell technologies Cenex, have produced a report that recommends local authorities should embrace e-scooters rental schemes. Cenex claim that e-scooters have the potential to reduce car trips and, in doing so, cut congestion and emissions, especially in congested city centres. 
    • Transport for Greater Manchester have revealed that their bus patronage is recovering a lot quicker than rail. Bob Morris, TfGM’s chief operating officer said the bus network was carrying about 40 per cent of pre-Covid patronage, Metrolink  35-40 per cent, and the rail network about 20 per cent. 

     


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  • Intelligence Newsletter - 18 August, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local News

    • The BBC reports that some restaurants and pubs are withdrawing from the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme due to the negative effects it has caused for them. Owners of these venues say the additional demand for services on the days the scheme is in operation have caused staff to be on the receiving end of negative behaviour from customers, which has caused a lot of strain on staff.

    National News

    Health and Wellbeing

    • The LGA, representing councils across the country, is encouraging all parents to check their children are up to date with their routine vaccinations. They are concerned that vaccination programmes have been disrupted by COVID-19 and many children will have missed out. They said, “failure to vaccinate children today could lead to avoidable consequences in the long term”.
    • The ONS have published an investigation into any potential link between long term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality rates in England. They conclude that the link has a smaller effect in England than has been found in previous studies in other countries. The link between early COVID-19 deaths and exposure to dirty air was partly down to the outbreak in London. As the virus spread across the country and deaths became more evenly distributed, the correlation decreased.
    • The NHS Confederation have published a new report called “Mental Health Services and COVID-19: Preparing for the rising tide”. It looks at how mental health services have adapted to the pandemic and the expected rise in demand for mental health services and support as a result of the pandemic, continuing into the future. They believe this will have serious implications on resourcing and staff wellbeing. They consider how services should prepare for the rise in demand and how services should be planned and delivered.
    • A YouGov poll has found that four out of five healthcare workers expect a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. Only 9% believed a second outbreak was unlikely. 25% of NHS workers who need PPE were still saying they lacked adequate equipment at the end of June. 31% of NHS workers said it was fairly or very likely that they will contract coronavirus in their workplace.

    Economy

    In their Economy, business and jobs Coronavirus roundup for August, the ONS has said that:

    • The biggest fall in quarterly GDP on record occurred in quarter 2 (April to June 2020) at 20.4%. However, GDP grew by 8.7% in June.
      • The economy began to bounce back in June; the volume of retail sales increased by 13.9% (June compared with May) as non-essential shops were allowed to reopen.
      • 90% of businesses who responded to their Business Impact of COVID-19 survey said they had been trading for ore than the previous two weeks (surveys taken 13 to 26 July), up from 86% the previous week.
      • Labour productivity (output per hour) fell by 2.5%, the largest fall since estimates began
      • Total actual weekly hours fell by 18.4% between quarter one and quarter two of 2020.
      • Early indicators for July suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down by 730,000 compared with March.
      • Public sector borrowing for April to June 2020 reached £127.9 billion, which is more that double that borrowed in the whole 2019/20 financial year.
      • Central Government receipts for June 2020 were 16.5% lower than June 2019 as Government coronavirus policies begin to take effect.
      • 29% of businesses trading in July said their operating costs exceed or were equal to their turnover.

    Society and Social Welfare

    • In their Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (covering 5-9 August) the ONS asked people about whether they were likely to go on holiday this year. 28% of adults said they were likely to go on holiday in the UK this year and 9% said they would likely go on a holiday abroad. Although no directly comparable, data from ABTA shows that in 2019 64% of people took a foreign holiday and 72% holidayed in the UK. A third of people said their household would not be able to afford a week’s holiday away from home. People were also less likely to travel if they knew that they would have to self-isolate for 14 days on their return.
    •  A YouGov poll from 4 – 5 August shows the UK’s current voting intentions. It reveals a slight downturn in Conservative voting (43% to 42%) and a slight upturn in favour of voting for Labour (from 35% to 36%). Liberal Democrats are also up from 6% to 8%, the Greens vote remains the same and a slight reduction from 3% to 2% for the Brexit Party. In terms of who would make the best Prime Minister however, Sir Kier Starmer has outpolled Boris Johnson with 34% of the vote, compared to Johnson’s 32%. A third of Britons still cannot decide between the two. The graph below shows the time series for voting intention results.
    • The Children’s Commissioner has published a report setting out the key actions needed to ensure that children are at the heart of planning for future lockdowns. The report: ‘Putting children first in future lockdowns’, lists ten key principles that need to be considered when planning a future public health response. The report says that, “Schools and early years settings should be kept open wherever possible. They should be the last places that are locked down, after pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops.”
    • The ONS has published a report into the implications of childlessness among tomorrow’s older people.  Our population is ageing because of declining fertility and an increase in life expectancy. One of the implications of this is the demand for paid-for care is likely to increase as adult children are the most common providers of informal social care to their parents when they reach old age.

    Housing

    • A report published by the Salvation Army outlines how homelessness and rough sleeping will increase if the Government does not provide adequate funding for local authorities to support those who are homeless or at risk of becoming so. The report offers solutions to help sustain the progress made in recent months. They also say that “Not only would this protect thousands of vulnerable people but investing in homelessness now will avoid spiralling costs in the future”.
    • The LGiU reports on a new planning white paper has been published which contains radical proposals to change the way that housebuilding and other development is controlled in England. It has been strongly criticised by local authorities and planning professionals. The proposals will make it easier for developers to build without applying to councils for consent. Local government leaders have pointed out that about 90% of applications are approved by councils and that delays are mainly down to developers and that this is a loss of local control, which would “deprive communities of the ability to define the area they live in.” (you will need to set up a free LGiU account to view this article).

    Environment

    • The BBC reports that a University of Leeds study shows that the dramatic drop in greenhouse gases and air pollutants seen during the global lockdown will have little impact on global warming. The data suggests that by 2030, global temperatures will only be 0.01 ⁰C lower than expected. They stress that the nature of the recovery could alter this outlook though and that action could still keep the world from exceeding 1.5⁰C warming by the middle of the century.
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  • Intelligence Newsletter - 11 August, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact

    • The Times reports that, nationwide, road traffic has now exceeded pre-lockdown measures with cars and vans being 14% higher. By using local data, at the end of July in Cornwall, whilst some main areas in mid-Cornwall have seen averaged traffic levels lower than pre lockdown, overall traffic levels are 7% above pre-lockdown levels. During the isolation period of lockdown, Cornwall’s traffic levels dropped to under 35% of the normal traffic levels.


    Economy 

    • RNLI has reported that the Cornish beaches are the busiest that they ‘have ever seen’. Most notably, the RNLI continues, is Perranporth beach that recorded 14,000 beachgoers last Thursday (30th July). There are worries that the RNLI will struggle to keep up with the number of tourists that are visiting Cornwall’s beaches if the number of visitors continue at this level.
    • Newly published data by the ONS for COVID-19 business rates reliefs by all Local Authorities in England shows Cornwall is the 12th highest in terms of the total estimated value of reliefs to be provided to businesses in 2020/21 under the expanded retail discount scheme (£97,661,779). Cornwall ranks 3rd highest for the estimated number of non-domestic businesses that are eligible for the expanded retail discount, and 4thhighest for the estimated number of non-domestic businesses eligible for the nursey discount. 
      • Following this, new data was also released for Business Grant Funding showing that as at the 5 July, Cornwall Council had paid out the most grants and to more businesses than any other Local Authority in England from the Small Business Grant Fund (SBGF) and Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Grant Fund (RHLGF). 15,937 business had received a grant from the SBGF (£159,370,000), with 4,467 business receiving a grant from the RHLF (£72,285,000).
      • Furthermore, the data showed that as at 5 July, Cornwall had also paid out £11,020,000 from the Local Authority Discretionary Grant Fund (LADGF) – more than any other Local Authority in England and nearly double that of the authority who had paid out the second highest amount.  
    • The government is urging rural communities to apply for gigabit-capable broadband scheme, which is targeted at rural, hard to reach areas.
    • CCN have published a new report highlighting the most economically vulnerable areas in England. Surmised by Julian German, the report shows that the narrow focus on the ‘Red Wall’ areas  such as Cumbria (62% of all jobs), Derbyshire (60%) and Durham (60%) does not highlight other areas, such as Cornwall (60%) who have an above national average for jobs in sectors with a heavy reliance on tourism and retail. The report also emphasises that 46% of the country’s entire furlough workforce are in county areas, with Cornwall having the highest proportion at 35.1%. The report goes on to show that counties are the most vulnerable to economic impact, with 53% of counties workforce are in ‘at risk’ sectors, with core cities at 44%.


    National 

    • Less than half of England’s population understand the current lockdown rules, according to a UCL study. Whilst Scotland and Wales populace have a higher understanding, it has also fallen to levels of 75% and 61%. Further, access to healthcare has also fallen – 1 in 10 people across the UK are unable to speak with a GP; 1 in 20 people were unable to speak to a mental health professional.


    Economy

    • The LGA have reported that local economies could miss out on more than £1 billion in emergency COVID-19 funding if the Government goes ahead with plans to close business support schemes. The funds include the Small Business Grants, Retail Hospitality, Leisure Business Grants Fund and Discretionary Grants Fund – all of which were introduced at the beginning of Lockdown. Any of the remaining funds, which the LGA estimates to be around £1.37 billion, will be returned to the Government at the end of August.
    • The Rural Services Network have published an updated list of current funds available to businesses and residents currently struggling during Covid.
    • The ONS have published statistics showing the impact of Parenting during Lockdown. During lockdown, parents were nearly twice as likely to be furloughed as those without children. Additionally, parents that work the traditional 9-5 roles are likely to be working during unsociable hours.

    • Additionally, during lockdown parents spent more time on developmental childcare, when compared to 2014/15 data. The analysis shows that developmental childcare has increased by 40 minutes, with non-developmental children decreasing by 20 minutes across all days. Directable comparable analysis that shows parents founds developmental childcare more enjoyable that other domestic chores.


    Social Care and Wellbeing 


    Crime

    • The Rural Services Network has reported that rural crime has risen to £53million – its highest level for eight years. Over the last 12 months, rural crime is up almost 9% with high value machinery, such as tractors and quads, being the main targets. Livestock crime, mainly lambs, have also increased by nearly 15%. The biggest monetary impacts are seen in the Midlands (£10.6m) with the South West reporting £6.6m lost, which is a 14% increase from 2019. NFU published data shows that Scotland had the biggest percentage increased at 44%, with the Northeast at the lowest with 0.4%. The worst affected Local Authority for total cost was Lincolnshire, with Northamptonshire having the biggest percentage change of 134%. Cornwall did not feature on the published list.



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  • Intelligence Newsletter - 4th August, 2020

    almost 4 years ago
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    Local Impact and Updates

    • Labour leader Sir Kier Starmer visited Falmouth on Wednesday (29 July) and called for the Government to provide more support for staff working in tourism and manufacturing. Sir Kier said Cornwall was expected to lose out on around £800 million worth of income due to the pandemic and that business and communities in Cornwall had told him they are struggling with social distancing and the shorter tourist season.
    • The visit comes after Labour analysed ONS data which showed that areas heavily reliant on tourism saw a rise in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits in recent months is an average of 65 percentage points higher than in other areas.
    • Our Network has published an updated slide deck on the Economic Impact of COVID on Cornwall. The document looks at Cornwall's economic context, bringing together analysis of known data and applications of Tortoise Media, ISER research and Center for Towns Exposure. Have a look at our documents sections on this page!


    National Impact

    Economic Impact

    • The Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee have published a new report looking at national infrastructure spending. It concludes that the overall aims are poorly defined and may lead to money being wasted as the spend may not lead to the culture change required for the Government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda. They also say more local input is required into these schemes and that it should be sought at an earlier stage.
    • The ONS has released its latest data on the effects of COVID-19 on the UK economywith the main points being:
      • The accommodation and food service activities sector reported the largest percentage of businesses starting to trade within the last two weeks after a pause in trading, at 33%.
      • The accommodation and food service activities sector reported the highest proportion of the workforce returning from furlough leave, at 18%, followed by the arts, entertainment and recreation sector and the construction sector, both at 15%.
      • Of businesses continuing to trade, the wholesale and retail trade sector had the highest percentage of businesses reporting that their turnover increased, at 22%.
      • 38% of businesses continuing to trade reported that capital expenditure had stopped or was lower than normal because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.


    Health and Wellbeing

    • The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) have reported on the Government’s handling of social care during the pandemic. They have called the Government’s approach ‘slow, inconsistent and, at times, negligent’. They also describe the decision to discharge 25,000 patients into care homes in March and early April without testing for the virus as ‘shocking’ and an 'appalling error’. They don’t only lay blame for the tragic consequences for those who rely on social care with the Government’s recent decisions but also the years of funding cuts and delays to policy reform for the sector.
    • The Health Foundation have also released analysis revealing the devastating impact the pandemic has had on social care in England, echoing the points made by the Public Accounts Committee.
    • Swim England has warned that only a fifth of local authority owned swimming pools opened on the day Government restrictions allowed them to and that 30% of facilities would likely stay closed for the next six months as the cost of reopening appears to be prohibitive. They have welcomed a report by the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee into the COVID-19 impact on the sector which says the Government must work with councils to ensure necessary funding is in place to preserve leisure facilities.
    • ONS have published a Personal Well-being Interactive Maps that looks at Life Satisfaction, Worthwhile, Happiness and Activity. 


    • The County Councils Network reports that England’s largest councils say government should set out its plans to reform social care this year but warn against a ‘knee-jerk’ centralisation of the system in the aftermath of Coronavirus. This follows speculation in the press that control for social care commissioning and provision could be moved from local government to the NHS. They site examples where local government have stepped up to support social care providers during the pandemic and say councils want to work with local NHS organisations to provide solutions to the current issues.


    • The Children’s Society annual survey of children’s well-being has shown that nearly 1 in 5 children aged 10-17 in the UK have reported being unhappy with their lives as a whole during the coronavirus lockdown. This is equivalent to 1.1million children. This has increased from between 10 and 13% over the last five years. The organisation has published a report titled “Life on Hold” which also finds that 50% of parents expected coronavirus to harm their children’s happiness over the coming year.


    • The Government’s Health and Care Monthly Update for Augustreports that:
      • The prevalence of adult smokers in the UK continues to fall across all age groups in 2019
      • There was a low point in the number of referrals to talking therapies in April 2020
      • Women are progressively delaying childbearing with a steady increase in fertility rates for women aged over 40 years since 1978
      • The number of patients who die following hospitalisation continues to decrease.

    There is more detail on each of the reports above including datasets.


    Social welfare and society

    • The Economic Affairs Committee (a Lords Committee) has called for reforms to Universal Credit as it said the policy is failing millions of people and driving the increase in foodbank use and rent arrears. In their second report ‘Universal Credit isn’t working: proposals for reform’, they call for the Government to introduce a non-repayable two-week grant to all claimants, tax credit debt to be written off, and an increase in the standard allowance.
    • The number of council referrals of suspected child victims of modern slavery in England to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) has risen from 127 in 2014 to 1,971 in 2019. Children accounted for 91% of all referrals made by councils in 2019, according to the figures. The LGA is calling for specific funding to help disrupt and tackle the crime through regulatory services and provide support to the victims. They also warn that the pandemic could leave people more vulnerable to exploitation by businesses.
    • According to a YouGov poll, 18% of Britons say that despite the many negative effects the pandemic has caused, it has had a positive effect on them. This appears to be slightly more common in men than women (21% of men vs 16% of women). The graph below shows the breakdown of different groups and whether they feel they have been positively or negatively affected and to what extent. Key workers top the list of those that feel the pandemic has had a large negative effect on them.

     

    • Another YouGov poll has also shown that the use of facemasks is significantly up as 57% of people report having worn a facemask in the previous fortnight. This is up from 38% on 12 July. This follows the Governments new rule on face coverings being required in all shops from 24 July.
    • The New Local Government Network (NLGN) have published a report called “Community Mobilisation: Unlocking the potential of community power” which provides four strategies for rapidly mobilising local mutual aid groups to ensure the most vulnerable are provided for during the pandemic. They site case studies that demonstrate good practice and cover ideas like local area coordination, community land trusts and participatory platforms.
    • The Rural Services Network have been looking at whether more people are looking to escape to the countryside, how this has been impacted by COVID-19 and what this means for rural places. They site the ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey which found that 28% of adults are planning changes to their relationship, job or home after we have recovered from COVID-19. 35% of these respondents wanted to move home. The report explores the evidence and discusses the possible impacts for the countryside.


    Environment

    • Breathable billboards have been installed at three locations in London to encourage local authorities to build clean air into their recovery plans from the COVID-19 pandemic. The billboards from Global Action Plan include an image of flowering lungs that react in real-time to localised pollution data to show if air quality is good or approaching illegal levels. These accompany a new report and toolkit funded by Guy’s and St Thomas’ Charity who argue there is a detrimental health link between COVID-19 and air pollution.
    • This may be a timely initiative as Friends of the Earth report that 1,360 sites across England exceed the Air Quality Objective for Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) levels, although this is down from 1,591 locations the year before.
    • ‘Unearthed’, a journalism project by Greenpeace UK, has reported that waste incinerators are three times more likely to be built in the UK’s most deprived neighbourhoods than the least. Incinerators that are currently proposed, are in the planning process, or being built also reflect this trend. Nearly half are set to be built in the UK’s top 25% most deprived neighbourhoods. Incinerators are on the rise globally due to an international waste crisis but those living in the vicinity complain of noise, litter and increased traffic. The article explores the effects and causes for the locations of the incinerators in more depth.


    Housing

    • A report published by the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee says that at least 90,000 new social homes should be built every year but that existing funding mechanisms mean local authorities and social housing providers are ‘at the limit’ of what they can deliver. They believe this target could be reached in five years if the Government increased funding and made some policy reforms to reduce the predicted cost of providing these new homes.
    • The charity Shelter has published a report which says nearly one in five (17%) private renting parents, which is the equivalent to over 450,000 adults are not more concerned their family will become homeless as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. YouGov carried out polling on behalf of Shelter which found that 15% of these people had cut back on food and 20% were taking on debt to help pay their rent since lock-down. Polly Neate, chief executive of Shelter, said: “As rescue and recovery packages roll in, the government needs to prioritise building safe homes that everyone can afford. Cuts to stamp duty are not a solution when you’re struggling to keep a roof over your head, and terrified of becoming homeless at the hands of this crisis.”



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