The Cornwall We Know

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Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help inform our understanding of Cornwall and the impact that COVID-19 has had on our residents and businesses.

Welcome to The Cornwall We Know, where you will find a variety of intelligence and insight, selected from internal and external sources, to help inform our understanding of Cornwall and the impact that COVID-19 has had on our residents and businesses.

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 1st July, 2020

    9 months ago
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    Local Impact 

    •  The Economic Growth Service at Cornwall Council have released a Labour Market Stress Composite that breaks down individuals accessing support schemes across CIOS.  
      • 68,500 individuals have accessed the Covid Job Retention Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top quarter of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
      • 29,200 individuals have accessed the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (as of 31st May). Cornwall sits in the top 10 of the 149 local authorities for this scheme; 
      • 47,682 individuals received Universal Credit (as of 14th May), an increase of 91.5% when compared to March 2020. Cornwall is ranked 45 out of the 149 local authorities for increases to UC claimants. All 149 authorities have received some increase in this period. Hartlepool, sitting at 149th, has seen a 32% increase in claimants. Surrey County sits 1st with an increase of 135.8%;  
      • 1,822 individuals received Job seekers allowance as of 14th May.  
      • 54% of our economically active population are accessing support (top is Blackpool with 67% and lowest Westminster and City of London 30%).  


    National Impact 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    •  The LGA have examined inclusive economies, particularly reflecting on the importance of understanding local economies and the role of local government within them.  There is general agreement that building inclusive economies must: 
      • address inequalities; 
      • address exclusion and poverty; 
      • benefit the economy as well as being  an end in itself; 
      • focus on the nature of the economy – rather than just redistributing the gains of growth through taxes and benefits (IGAU 2019). 
         This extensive study includes a literature review and 15 stakeholder interviews which looked at how inclusive growth can be pursued by councils at three different stages. It concludes by recognising the financial hardships that local councils have had and emphasises that Covid offers a unique opportunity for major change. 
         
    • An LGA study into the changing roles of strategic centres looks at the acceleration Covid has caused to the shift to online shopping. The study looks at the potential long-term impact from this shift and the role local government has to play. It considers areas such as population changes, online expenditure and changes in work routines. The study concludes with key areas for consideration by local authorities. These include:  
      • Re-considering per capita centre floorspace requirements; 
      • Considering to rezone to support more smaller, more sustainable centres; 
      • Considering a mixed use as a way of attracting activity to centres;
      • Consider ways to enhance access to centres; 
      • To consider investment in public spaces; and,  
      • Consider new approaches to centre activation. 
    •  A Centre for Progressive Policy has found that 8 in 10 councils will struggle to meet Covid costs. This is despite Government funding since the crisis started. It argues that the government is yet to reach its full potential for financial support to local authorities The paper cites the LGA stating that £6bn is likely to be needed this year by councils. The paper also highlights that the most deprived areas will suffer the most. CPP attribute this to the existing financial gap of per capita funding enlarging, whilst further struggling to pay council and business rates.  
    •  Citizens Advice reports that nearly 1.4million migrants do not have access to welfare benefits. Those seeking advice mirrors national data demonstrating the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on people of colour’. 82% of Citizens Advice clientenquiries regarding this were from people of colour. Citizens Advice therefore recommended four changes for the Government:  
      • The No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) restriction for those subject to immigration control should be temporarily suspended; 
      • The Habitual Residence Test (HRT) should be temporarily suspended from the application process for benefits;
      • The minimum income requirement (of at least £18,600 per year) and the maintenance and accommodation requirements should be temporarily suspended for all those renewing family visas;
      • All those on a 5-year route to settlement whose income has been affected by the coronavirus pandemic should not be moved onto a 10-year route because they cannot show minimum income. 
    • Over 1.3 million households are likely to have built up council tax arrears due to CovidFollowing legislation changes on the 24 June that ends the ban on collections via bailiffsCitizens Advice reports that carers and those shielding will be hit the hardest.  ‘People who are behind on their council tax because of Covid-19 are twice as likely to have been shielding or at increased risk of the virus’. They are also four times more likely to be caring for older family members. The article reports that LGA figures show over £500m of council tax has gone unpaid. Citizens Advice call on the Government to review council tax measures and implement ‘simple changes’ to help.  They call for more flexibility to recover debts outside of court proceedings.  
    • A UCL study states that adults in the lowest socio-economic group have been financially hit the hardest. The study suggests that this group is nine times more likely to struggle with bills than higher socio-economic groups. The study argues that the lowest group were 7.2 times more likely to be unable to pay bills in week 1. This rose to 8.7 in week 3. Food bills are also a struggle and shows that the group were 4.1 times more unlikely to be able to buy sufficient food in week 1. UCL highlights that whilst communities have got closer and stronger, the pandemic has also exposed and widened health inequalities within societies.  
    • An LSE Paper discusses the impact that Covid will have on political trust. It concludes that young people who have been exposed to an epidemic will have less trust in political institutions for the rest of their lives. Specifically, those exposed to epidemics aged 18-25 have less confidence in political leaders, governments and elections. The research has also found that life-long distrust is mainly for democratic countries only. It is not the same for autocratic countries. This may be due to more pro-active involvement in democracies and expectations that leaders should be more responsive to citizen concerns. It may also be due to democracies struggling to keep a consistent message.  
    • A study has been released looking at high streets and their come back. The study looks at city and town centres, using Grimsby as an example, suggesting areas for revitalisation. The model focuses on taking central power from Government and putting it back into local communities. It outlines recommendations on environmental impacts, devolution, taxation, property and transport. The report analyses the cultural shift pre-covid in line with a ‘required radical shift’ in local planning post covid. 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

    • A new study warns that a mental health crisis is around the cornerThe LGA has compared the mental health trends and outcomes from some of the biggest economic disasters in recent years. It states that if such trends were to be followed, Covid may have the biggest impact of all. The LGA emphasises that whilst mental health services will prepare, there needs to be a ‘community’ recovery response. This response needs to ensure resilience for future incidents. Consequentially to the pandemic, the LGA argues that local authorities need to understand and mitigate against the mental health implications for services and policies in their responses to the economic fall out 
    • New data from the ONS shows mental health concerns within the Shielding Cohort. More than one-third (37%) of people asked to shield report a worsening in their mental health. This rises to around half (49%) among 50- to 59-year-olds, compared with 26% for those aged 75 years and over. Clinically extremely vulnerable females report worsening mental health than males, no matter their age band.  
    • There have been some positive mental health outcomes from this epidemic56% of a lifestyle survey respondents said that they were now able to spend more quality time with people they lived with While 50% were enjoying a slower pace of life47% preferred that they were spending less time travelling. Almost all (96%) of respondents are exercising more and want this to continue in recovery.  
    • Early data from The University of Bristol shows that anxiety levels have doubled in young people. During lockdown, anxiety levels have increased from 13% to 24%. The Children of the 90’s study shows that 27-29 year olds have heightened anxiety. However, there was no evidence that depression levels are any higher overall.  Specific groups of individuals were still at higher risk of both depression and anxiety in the COVID-19 period. These were women: 
      • With pre-existing mental and physical health conditions; 
      • Who were living alone; 
      • Were self-isolating as a result of COVID-19; and,  
      • Who had experienced recent financial problems.  

     Interestingly though the report showed that some factors, such as living alone, were only linked to greater depression. Others, such as being a parent, was only linked to anxiety. These findings were in both the younger and older generations.  

    •  Barnardo’s announces a ‘state of emergency’ for fostering children. As a result of Covid, there has been a 44% increase in children needing foster care. Foster parent applications also plummeted by nearly half (47%), compared to the same period last year.  
    •  ONS data reports an increasing trend of more men dying from Covid than women. Between 9th– 25th May, 4,761 Covid deaths were recorded. Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were men. Statistically, there are 19.1 deaths per 100,000 for men compared to a significantly lower ratio for women (9.7). 


    •  IPRR analysis suggests that if the UK matched international rates of performance, an estimated 20,000 deaths could have been avoidedThe paper is clear that the UK has always led medical innovation. But the UK struggles with implementing innovation quickly. If this was overcome, the paper suggests those deaths would have been avoided The paper attributes the lower performance to three key areas: 
      • A risk adverse culture, driven by the focus on performance management and short term goals; 
      • The ‘sheer complexity of the NHS’; and,
      • Lack of resources – particularly a lack of financial support.  

     The article continues to make a range of policy recommendations to consider. This is in two parts, starting with long term institutional framework changes. The second being changes to local providers and commissioners.  

     ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 

    •  New research reveals huge public support for putting nature at the heart of the post-covid recovery strategy. RSPB reports that there is strong public opposition (80%) to the Government reducing spending on nature with 84% of respondents supporting increasing the number of accessible nature-rich areas in the UK. 
    •   The Conversation has released a discussion article on zero carbon homes leading the green recovery Post Covid. The articles states that 28% of all current carbon emissions are attributed to buildings, with retrofitting in homes being key. The article discusses that 80% of homes that exist today will still exist, in and be lived in, in 2050.  

    Extra Reading 

    To control beach overcrowding, the Italian government have produced an municipality app for residents to book spaces.  

    The LGA have released a tool kit for councils. This online toolkit aids councils for revitalising town centres with guidance and resources.  

    The LGA have also released a ‘bundle’ on their analysis to Covid and the economy. 

     Webinars 

    Launch of CPRE, the countryside charity’s Post-coronavirus regeneration manifesto, 9-10am on Wednesday 1 July 

    This webinar will launch CPRE’s manifesto, which is our response to the coronavirus pandemic. It includes recommendations to policy makers on how we can regenerate ourselves, regenerate our green spaces and regenerate our rural economies post-pandemic. Speakers include Rt Hon Philp Dunne MP, Chair of the Environmental Audit CommitteeMike Amesbury MP, Shadow Planning MinisterCaroline Lucas MP, Former Leader of the Green PartyRhiane Fatinikun, Founder, Black Girls Hike; and, Crispin Truman OBE, Chief Executive, CPRE The countryside charity. 

     

    CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency panel discussion9-10am on Wednesday 8 July 

    This panel discussion will be an opportunity to discuss CPRE’s countryside solutions to the climate emergency, touching on energy, housing, landscapes, transport and farming. Speakers include Rt Hon George Eustice MP, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsLuke Pollard MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsBaroness Bennett of Manor Castle, Former Leader of the Green PartyFreddie Northcott, youth climate activist; and, Tom Fyans, Director of Policy and Campaigns, CPRE The countryside charity 

     

    Working with the voluntary and community sector to support communitiesWednesday 15 July 2020, 10.30am - 11.30am 

    This LGA lead webinar will hear from national and local speakers, to discuss their e4xpereinces on the value of community and the voluntary sector. There will also be discussions around future challenges.  

    Spotlight on Green Reset, Wednesday 11th July, 10.00am – 11.30am 

    This LGA lead webinar will disucss the opportunity Covid has had for our climate change aspirations. It will explore local government steps to ensure short and long term responses to Covid correlate with sustainability measures. Speakers include Cllr David Renard, Chair, LGA’s Environment, Economy, Housing and Transport Board and Leader, Swindon Borough CouncilCllr Clyde Loakes, Deputy Leader, London Borough of Waltham ForestJo Wall, Strategic Director (Climate Response), Local Partnerships; and, Nicki Butterworth, Director of Neighbourhood Services, Wirral Council. 

     

     

     

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 24th June, 2020

    9 months ago
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    Local Impact 

    • The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 594 as at 22 June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 104.5 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 3 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly is now the 5th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England (falling from 4th in previous weeks) with Devon’s rates remaining lower – Rutland (88.2), Dorset (98.8) North East Lincolnshire (103.2) and Devon (104.2) have lower rates.  
    • 203 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 12 June) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period.  
    • Overall; there were no additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 5 June). This is the first week without any COVID-19 related deaths since week ending 13 March.  
    • There were no COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest reported week. The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 12 June remains at 66 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
    • The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital remains at 119 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home.  
    • Taking into account the size and age structure of the population, there were 28.9 deaths involving COVID-19 per 100,000 people across Cornwall between March and May this compares to 81.9 per 100,000 persons in England and the South West, which saw the lowest age-standardised of all regions, with a mortality rate of 41.2 deaths per 100,000 population. 

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    • VCSE sector survey results show that 92% of organisations have cancelled part of their usual provision, and just a quarter reported that their services were operating as normal, with the rest having moved their services online in order to still support their regular users, and new ones. Most groups reported a downturn in income (78%), with previous fundraising activities and events, membership fees, shops and charges for premises hire and courses disappearing.   

     National Impact 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • ONS data shows a fairly substantial regional variation in the proportion of businesses seeing a decrease in turnover. 
    • A new report by the County Council's Network outlines the financial impact of Coronavirus on councils, which could run over several years, leaving England’s largest local authorities in an unsustainable position. The study, carried out by Grant Thornton and based on data provided by county and unitary authorities, shows that all 39 of councils included in the study could use up their available reserves in 2021/22 to cover a funding shortfall of £2.5bn. The report sets out that England’s largest councils could be facing the prospect of ‘large scale reductions’ in services to set legal budgets this year. 
    • An LGiU round up provides an outline of each of the new funding streams and looks at how they are being allocated. 
    • The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has published a report detailing the financial risks to local government posed by the COVID-19 crisis. It has found that local authorities in affluent areas are more at risk from loss of income and those authorities with higher levels of deprivation face more financial risk from increased service demands. 
    • The Local Government Association (LGA) has responded to the above report by the IFS stating that although the Government has provided funding for local government to assist with the cost of the COVID-19 crisis, further funding and financial flexibilities are now needed to help councils meet a shortfall which we estimate could reach at least a further £6 billion this year 
    • New report by the Centre for Policy Studies (written by Sajid Javid) states the crisis will exacerbate regional inequalitiesIt is the regions which were already suffering from low productivity, low levels of capital intensification and lack of investment which have been most affected by the crisis. The report recommends “a revitalised devolution agenda to level-up the UK, with more City Deals and increasing the powers and capacity of devolved authorities to invest for growth”.  
    • A report by DevoConnect looks at local variation in recovery from past recessions and current national recovery projections. It then estimates long run recovery rates for different local areas. The results show clear regional differences. The average GVA loss relative to trend after 5 years is highest in the North East, at 11.7%. The lowest average GVA loss is in the South East, with a 5.4% decline relative to trend predicted by 2025. Given this regional effect, with the North and the Midlands likely to be hit much harder that the South East and parts of London, we outline a roadmap to recovery that goes from ‘shoring up’ to ‘levelling up’. The government must shore up local economies in the short-run to limit economic hardship and to head-off greater unemployment down the line. In the long-run the government must return with renewed commitment to the levelling-up agenda it outlined pre-outbreak. This means closing the economic gaps that persist across the country and are set to be exacerbated by Covid-19. 
    • The Resolution Foundation has done an audit of household wealth and the initial effects of the coronavirus crisis on saving and spending in Great Britain. It finds that household wealth in the UK is distributed very unevenly and the pounds-and-pence gap between richer and poorer families has increased markedly over the past decade. The primary driver of larger wealth gaps between families has been rising asset prices driven by falling interest rates. Key workers and workers in shut down sectors are less likely to have savings. This means those more exposed to the health and economic crises are less likely to have savings to protect living standards if their incomes fall. Poorer families are more likely to be saving less or increasing debt as a result of the coronavirus crisis than wealthier families. 
    • ONS data highlights the possibility of widening economic inequalities as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. With most people having been expected to work from home where possible, we can see that people in jobs that had previously allowed homeworking had higher average incomes in the financial year ending 2019. 
    • Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) shows that the pandemic crisis has caused 
      • 7 in 10 families with children claiming Universal Credit or Child Tax Credit to cut back on essentials;
      • 6 in 10 to borrow money; 
      • over 5 in 10 to be behind on rent or other essential bills.  
    • JRF are calling for an urgent, temporary, £20 per week increase to the child element of Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit as this would directly ease the pressure on care-givers and help to support parents to nurture and look after their children in the way that we want all children to be cared for. 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

    • The annual Budget Survey by ADASS (Association of Directors of Adult Social Services) reveals the scale of the financial impact of the pandemic and its very real consequences on the care and support of millions, the ability of local authorities to fund adult care, and the very viability of thousands of caring organisations that provide vital support that enables millions of us to live good lives. It shows that next year there will be a lack of resources to ensure decent levels of service.  
    • Millions of people across the UK have become unpaid carers for loved ones due to the coronavirus outbreak, new research has found. Data estimates that 4.5 million more people are now caring for older, disabled or seriously ill family or friends as a result of the pandemic. This is on top of 9.1 million people who were already caring for loved ones before the crisis erupted. 
    • Children are developing serious mental health conditions, including post-traumatic stress, because of the coronavirus pandemic. The Childhood Trust who provide services to disadvantaged children in London says disadvantage is leaving children extremely vulnerable. As well as anxiety about their loved ones' health, many children are facing social isolation and hunger. Lack of internet access is also setting disadvantaged children back. 

    ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 

    • The effects of lockdown are on course to reduce emissions this year by nearly four times the UK's target for becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Analysis shows that if we progress in a linear way, carbon emissions will reduce by 11% this year - a much bigger drop than the 3% target set by the Committee on Climate Change, a group that advises the government 
    • Traffic on Britain's roads is now at a similar level to that seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the AA says. It slumped to between 35% and 40% of the pre-coronavirus volume at the beginning of lockdown but has since doubled to around 75%. 
    • London congestion charge rises to £15 a day and extends to 7 days a week. The temporary measures are being introduced under the terms of Transport for London's £1.6bn rescue package from the government.  
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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 17th June, 2020

    9 months ago
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    LOCAL IMPACT

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • Analysis by the Resolution Foundation shows that some of the UK’s most deprived towns and cities, many reliant on tourism or with workers concentrated in low-paid service jobs, look set to be hit hardest in this crisis. Taking a place-based focus, they note an additional impact on not-strictly-tourism businesses in tourism-reliant areas (including hospitality but also stretching to retail, leisure, and other parts of the economy) because their demand has not been able to travel to them. In this sense, areas traditionally reliant on tourism have suffered a double whammy in lockdown – encompassing both supply restrictions and a significant reduction in demand 


    National Impact 

     YouGov polling shows that government approval ratings in the UK and USA continue their decline. Only 41% of Britons say the government is managing the outbreak well, versus 56% who say it is mishandling it. This gives a net score of -15, down from -6 the week previously. This means that domestically the British government are seen by the population to be handling the crisis less well than Americans think of their own government. The Trump administration’s response to the crisis currently generates a net score of -12, down from -7 the week before, with 41% of Americans saying the government is performing well compared to 53% who say it is performing poorly. 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT

    •  ONS data shows that of businesses in the UK continuing to trade, and who sell goods or services online, 32% responded that online sales have increased. The volume of job adverts in catering and hospitality between 29 May and 5 June 2020 declined to a record low of 18.1% of its 2019 level. 
    • The Resolution Foundation shows that while the effects of this crisis on the labour market have been bottom heavy, with lower earners most affected, falls in income have been more evenly shared across the income distribution. 37 per cent of adults in the bottom 40 per cent of working-age incomes report income falls since the outbreak began, compared to 35 per cent of adults in the top 40 per cent of incomes. 
    • Changes in spending, though, have a much stronger distributional gradient. 57 per cent of adults in the top quintile of working-age family incomes have experienced falling outgoings, compared with 30 per cent in the bottom quintile. Rather than being indicative of income falls, this is likely to reflect ‘enforced saving’ as a result of lockdown restrictions on non-essential spending. 
    • More than one-fifth of usual household spending has not been possible during the lockdown, ONS analysis reveals. In the financial year ending March 2019, UK households spent an average of £182 per week on activities that have since been largely prevented by government guidelines (such as travel, holidays and meals out). This is equivalent to 22% of a usual weekly budget of £831, money that households could be saving, spending in other areas or using to cover any loss of income. 
    • Step Change shows that one in five (19%) new clients said experiencing unemployment or redundancy was a main reason for debt, up from 16% at the same time last year. 
    • The Resolution Foundation finds that while the earnings hit has been widely experienced across tenure groups, renters are one-and-a-half to two times more likely to have fallen behind with their housing payments compared to mortgaged home owners. Young people and those renting may find it difficult to cut back on spending because they spend a lower proportion of their budget on goods and services that are not essential. Renters also spend a higher proportion of their budget on essential items that cannot be cut back: private renters spend more than 60% of their weekly budget on household essentials. 
    • RSN survey results show that 53% of respondents noted a rise in reports of homelessness /rough sleeping in rural areas due to covid-19, particularly with those who were unable to stay with family, friends or sofa surfing due to households isolating. 

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    • An RSN survey shows that 40% of those that responded, (there were 92 responses from organisations), had noted an increase in reports of domestic abuse. There were concerns that people may not be able to report incidents, due to being isolated with the perpetrator during lockdown.  In addition, lack of public transport which has been further reduced in lockdown and normal places of face to face support only being available online have created additional issues for those in rural areas. 
    • Contacts to NSPCC helpline about the impact of domestic abuse on children have increased by 32% since the start of the lockdown, to an average of one an hourSince the lockdown 1,500 adults contacted the NSPCC Helpline about the risks to children who are trapped behind closed doors. 58% led to referrals or a referral update to the local authority. 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

    • ONS interactive map to explore the number of COVID-19 deaths in your area. 

    • Between 25 May and 7 June 2020, ONS estimated that an average of 0.06% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.02% to 0.12%); this equates to an average of 33,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 68,000). 
    • ONS data also shows that people living in more deprived areas have continued to experience COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those living in less deprived areas. General mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, but COVID-19 appears to be increasing this effect 
    • The pandemic, and the wider governmental and societal response, have brought health inequalities into sharp focus. People facing the greatest deprivation are experiencing a higher risk of exposure to COVID-19 and existing poor health puts them at risk of more severe outcomes if they contract the virus. This is exposing the structural disadvantage and discrimination faced by parts of the black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. The Health Foundation argues that restoring the nation to good health will require a new social compact, backed by a national cross-departmental health inequalities strategy. Action needed will include protecting incomes, improving the quality of jobs and homes, and supporting critical voluntary and community services. 
    • There is clear evidence that black and minority ethnic groups are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than the rest of the population though that risk may not be the same for all ethnic groups. Data from the ONS published on 7 May show that, after adjusting for age, men and women of black ethnicity were at highest risk. They were more than four times as likely to die from COVID-19 compared to people of white ethnicity. Why? The answer to this question is complex. Ethnic inequalities in health in the UK have been extensively documented before COVID-19. A wide variety of explanations for these have been examined, ranging from upstream social and economic inequalities to downstream biological factors. Given the complexity of the systems that produce poor outcomes for black and ethnic minority groups, there is a real risk that the imprudent use of statistical adjustment techniques in studies of COVID-19 deaths may obscure the role of some upstream issues. 
    • New data shows a significant increase in deaths of people with a learning disability as a result of Covid-19. Between 10 April and 15 May 2020, 386 people who were receiving care from learning disability and/or autism services died. In the same period last year 165 people died. This represents a 134% increase.  There are concerns about access to testing for people with learning disabilities in care homes. Until 5 June 2020 care homes could only order testing kits if they were looking after people aged over 65 or people with dementia. This left care homes for younger people with learning disabilities without access to testing kits. Mencap said this might result in “more people with a learning disability falling through the gap when it comes to accessing vital social care support.” 
    • ONS data shows that in May 2020, just over 7 in 10 disabled adults (73.6%) reported they were "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the effect that the coronavirus (COVID-19) was having on their life (69.1% for non-disabled adults); this represents a decrease compared with April 2020, when nearly 9 in 10 (86.3%) disabled adults reported this. A higher proportion of disabled people than non-disabled people were worried about the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on their well-being (62.4% for disabled people compared with 49.6% of non-disabled people); their access to groceries, medication and essentials (44.9% compared with 21.9%); their access to health care and treatment for non-coronavirus-related issues (40.6% compared with 21.2%); and their health (20.2% compared with 7.3%) in May 2020. 
    • IFS shows that the COVID-19 episode has had substantial negative impacts on mental health across the population. The biggest impacts have been on the gender and age groups – broadly women and the young – that already had relatively low levels of mental health. Pre-existing inequalities in mental health have therefore been exacerbated by the crisis. 

     

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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 10th June, 2020

    9 months ago
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    Local impact 

    • The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 582 as at 8th June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 102.4 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 6 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly remains the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (88.2), Dorset (96.9) and North East Lincolnshire (98.9) have lower rates.  
    • 198 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 29th May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period. 
    • Overall; there were 5 additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 22 May). In the last reported week (week ending 29 May) 3 deaths which mentioned COVID-19, occurred in hospital. This figure remains static, with the same number reported as the previous week for hospital deaths.  
    • There were 2 COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest reported week. The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 29 May is now 65 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
    • The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital now stands at 115 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home. 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • Cornwall’s unemployment claimant rate more than doubled from March 2020 to April 2020, from 2.7 to 5.8.  The Isles of Scilly saw the largest rate rise of all 379 Local Authorities, from 0.7 to 5.8. 
    • Almost 70% of respondents to Cornwall Councils April Food Support Survey are supporting any presenting need – whilst the remaining 30% offer support to more specific demographic groups. 
    • Over 37% of respondents who were operative prior to lockdown reported an increase in demand of 50% or more, relative to the pre-lockdown period – with over a fifth stating demand had more than doubled.  
    • 46% of people receiving food support were estimated to be ‘newly vulnerable’, with ‘Low income: other’ identified as the number 1 factor in the cause in the rise in food demand (the second highest 1st ranked cause). 
    • Per pupil applications for free school meals increased by +401% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. 

     

    HEALTH 

    Figures show that food poisoning cases in Cornwall have reduced dramatically during the pandemic; between the two week period at the end of May in 2019 and the same two week period in 2020. Cases have fallen from 170 to just 70. This is attributed to residents not eating out and not being in the natural environment as much e.g. swimming in the sea. 



    National impact 

    • ONS estimates that at any given time between 17 May and 30 May 2020, an average of 0.10% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05% to 0.18%); this equates to an average of 53,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 25,000 to 99,000). 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • 1.1 million more people face poverty at end of 2020 as a result of coronavirus pandemic, finds IPPR200,000 more children are among those expected to be below pre-virus poverty line 
    • New research by JRF finds more than a third of furloughed private renters (37%) are worried about being able to pay their rent when the coronavirus lockdown ends. 
    • Polling that JRF commissioned from YouGov from 22 to 28 May confirmed that homeowners are not always well placed to financially weather unexpected changes to their incomes, with almost 40% of mortgage holders having suffered reduced income due to coronavirus, and almost one in five worried about meeting their housing costs after the lockdown lifts – around 1.3 million households. This is higher again for households with children: almost 23% of mortgage holders with children are worried about how they will meet their housing costs after lockdown. 
    • Citizen’s Advice recent ‘Near the cliff-edge’ report found that 1 in 8 renters say they are behind on their rent already, with a further 23% expected to fall behind due to coronavirus. Over 2.6 million renters are currently behind or will fall behind due to coronavirus—most likely those who are younger or in insecure work. 
    • Over half of frontline services have seen a rise in homelessness due to the coronavirus pandemic, research has revealed today. Homelessness charity Crisis also found nearly three quarters of those surveyed have seen a rise in demand for services since the start of the outbreak. 
    • The Food Foundation have found 4.9m adults were food insecure in mid-May (with 1.7m children in these households), compared to 2m pre-lockdown. This is 9.3% of adults, compared to 15.6% in the first 2 weeks – which though an improvement, is still 250% higher than pre-lockdown (3.8%). This disproportionately impacts BAME communities, those with health problems or disabilities, and FSM eligible households. 
    • Compared to the first two weeks, economic issues have overtaken supply as the primary reason. 880,000 (2%) are receiving food parcels, with a further 4.4m (8%) relying on informal support networks. Of those shielding, 7% are receiving parcels and 27% relying on support networks. 
    • Compared to the start of lockdown, 34% now find it easier to access food, but 26% find it harder. 8% find it easier to afford food, but 16% find it harder.  
    • Trussell Trust foodbanks have reported an 89% increase in need across April (year on year)including 107% more children and 67% more household referrals. This followed an 81% increase across March, including 122% more children and 48% more household referrals. This shows a disproportionate impact on children (with 0-16 year olds 20% of the population but making up 43% of the additional parcels), and persistence of demand following the expansion of Government’s support measures.  
    • Nationally, the Independent Food Aid Network reportea 175% increase in need across April (year on year) – totalling just under 100,000 3-day parcels in April – and a 132% rise in people or referrals. The most common referral reasons were new unemployment and wait for UC payment, benefit delays, low income, benefit sanctions, and free school meals voucher ineligibility/insufficiency. 

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    • ONS data shows that 5.0% of people in Great Britain (2.6 million adults) reported that they felt lonely "often" or "always" between 3 April and 3 May 2020, about the same proportion as pre-lockdown. Of those asked, 30.9% (7.4 million adults) reported their well-being had been affected through their feeling lonely in the past seven days. 
    • ONS data shows that during the week ending 5 June, the most common reasons for leaving home across Great Britain were: essential shopping, exercise, work and running errands; however, leaving to meet with others in a public place continued to increase this week, and the largest increase compared with last week was for those travelling to and from work. Over 4 in 10 adults (41%) said they felt safe or very safe when outside of their home this week, compared with 33% last week. 6 in 10 adults (60%) in Great Britain felt safe when meeting with someone outside of their household outdoors, but this fell to around 1 in 3 who felt safe when visiting garden centres (36%). 
    • Thanks to social-distancing measures meaning proper cinemas are no-gos, we’ve seen a string of drive-in screens launch in London over the past few months, says Time Out. 

    HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

    • Adult social care providers face more than £6.6bn in extra costs due to the coronavirus pandemic by the end of September, according to new research. Local authorities are shouldering £3.3bn of the costs, with £2.6bn relating to self-funders and Clinical Commissioning Groups. The research also found that adult care had swallowed 40% of the £3.2bn emergency funding received by councils. 
    • Some care home residents have been forced to pay a 'coronavirus bill’ of up to £100 a week by their provider, a charity has warned. Age UK said some care home providers are charging residents an extra 15% on top of their existing fees to pay for PPE and the cost of covering staff absences. 
    • The government's contact tracing app could exacerbate existing health inequalities, a charity has warned today. A survey published by the Health Foundation shows that six in ten people say they are likely to download the app once it is released. However, there is a significant ‘digital divide’ based on occupation, age and educational level. 
    • Councils fear a rise in vulnerable children and families needing support as a result of the Coronavirus lockdown, but may struggle to cope due to existing funding shortfalls and additional costs of the pandemic. New analysis by the County Councils Network (CCN) reveals that core government funding for children’s services reduced by 35% – some £354m – since 2015/16. These reductions are higher than any other part of the country and came at the same time the costs of providing these services increased £600m over the same period. 
    • According to the latest research from King’s College London, around one in 20 Covid patients experience long-term symptoms for at least a month, sometimes longer. While the vast majority of those who contract Covid-19 will make a full recovery, there is increasing concern about a small but significant number of patients whose symptoms persist weeks and even months after first falling ill. 
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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 3rd June, 2020

    9 months ago
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    CORNWALL

    • The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 [1] across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 576 as at 1 June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 101.4 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 3 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly remains the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (88.2), Dorset (96.9) and North East Lincolnshire (97.6) have lower rates.  
    • 192 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including 22 May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period.  
    • Overall; there were 2 additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 15 May). In the last reported week (week ending 22 May) the 2 deaths which mentioned COVID-19, both occurred in hospital. This shows a reduced position when compared to the previous week for hospital deaths.  
    • There were no COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest week; this is the first week with no COVID-19 deaths in these settings since week 13 (week ending 27 March). The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 22 May remained at 63 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
    • The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital now stands at 111 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home.  

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • Government figures show that Cornwall Council paid a total of £221,235,000 in grant payments to 19,461 businesses.  
    • OCSI analysis shows that 7 of the 10 towns with largest increases in unemployment are in Cornwall. 

      


    National Impact 

    • total of 43,837 deaths involving COVID-19 were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 22 May 2020 (year to date)The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 22 May 2020 (Week 21) was 12,288; this was 2,285 less than Week 20 but 2,348 more than the five-year average. 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • YouGov data shows that Britons are now almost as likely to say that ‘the economy’ is one of the top three issues facing the country (61%) as they are to say ‘health’ (66%). 
    • ONS data shows that in April 2020, 2.1 million people claimed unemployment related benefits. This was an increase of over 850,000 claimants from March 2020. On 28 May, new declarations for Universal Credit and new claim advances had both gradually declined to 19 May 2020, following peaks on 27 March and 6 April, respectively.  
    • 79% of businesses in the UK had applied for the Coronavirus Job Retention SchemeBy midnight on 24 May, 8.4 million jobs had been furloughed through the government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS). 
    • Around 2.5 million UK residents, hundreds of thousands of whom are in employment, have been identified by the government as being “extremely clinically vulnerable”. Research by Citizens Advice found that of the 2,000 people contacting them since 14 April for help, over 70% of those who were shielding had not been furloughed. 
    • Total online job vacancies declined more than 50% from the start of March to the start of May 2020. 
    • YouGov shows that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on many Britons’ finances is bleak: 44% feel less financially secure, over a third say their savings have taken a hit (36%) and a similar number (35%) say their income has gone down. Meanwhile, 16% say their debts have gone up. 
    • More than 40% of jobs are at risk in resort towns across the country. The map, to be found here, shows that the highest concentrations are seen in coastal and large rural Local Authorities containing resorts and national parks where the hospitality industry predominates. The lowest concentrations are found in and around London and University towns with a stronger knowledge economy. At town level, the 10 with the highest proportion of jobs at risk are shown in the table below. Each of these are located in areas with high dependence on tourism, with eight of the 10 located in seaside resorts. 

     

    SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • Analysis by Inside Housing indicates that areas with more overcrowded housing have been worst hit by coronavirus. 
    • An FT editorial suggests that a growing number of urban residents that are now considering living in the countryside as lockdown has forced the country into working from home.  
    • While total energy consumption has declined due to shutting down large sections of the economy, domestic consumption has increased. Uswitch estimates that home confinement will cost the average energy consumer an extra £16 per month (Uswitch, 2020). These costs are likely to be higher for people living in homes with poor energy standards. 
    • ONS data indicates that those with the lowest household incomes increased their total time in paid work, working a similar amount of time outside of the home as they did in 2014 to 2015; this may indicate that that those in lower income households are in occupations that cannot be undertaken from home. People with the highest household incomes continued to work the same amount on average, as they made a greater switch towards homeworking time. 
    • Further ONS data shows that in London, three out of every five workers said that they worked from home in April 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic; this was higher than the other countries and regions, with workers in the East of England and East Midlands being least likely to work from home. 
    • The most neighbourly area was the South West, where 64% of people checked on their neighbours at least once in April, compared with London where 48% had checked at least once. 

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    • ONS data shows that more people have left their home the week of 29 May, with 90% of adults saying they had left for any reason compared with 86% last week. The most common reasons for leaving home continue to be: essential shopping, exercise, work and medical need; however, leaving to meet with others in a public place has seen the largest increase this week. Almost 3 in 10 adults (29%) said they felt unsafe or very unsafe when outside of their home this week, compared with over 4 in 10 (41%) last week. 
    • We can expect more people of all ages to experience loneliness and social isolation due to the impact of social distancing measures and the reduction in face-to-face opportunities to socialise, connect with family, neighbours and friends, and to take part in physical activity and everyday cultural and faith experiences. The loneliness and social isolation impacts from COVID-19 will be experienced by people across the life course, but some will be more at risk than others and will need targeted approaches that are also sensitive to the stigma that can be associated with loneliness and social isolation. This table below summarises the main risk factors of loneliness and social isolation. 
    • Refuge, the charity which runs the national domestic abuse helpline has had a 10-fold increase in visits to its website in the past two weeks. The charity said the lockdown itself does not cause domestic abuse but "can aggravate pre-existing behaviours in an abusive partner". 

    HEALTH 

    • An NHS nationwide analysis in England demonstrates that all types of diabetes are independently associated with a significant increased risk of in-hospital death with COVID-19. 

    ENVIRONMENTAL 

    • A new study in Nature Climate Change led by scientists from the University of East Anglia and Stanford has found that daily global CO₂ emissions in early April 2020 were down 17% compared to the mean level of emissions in 2019. The global COVID-19 quarantine has meant less air pollution in cities and clearer skies. But these relatively small and temporary changes should not be mistaken for the COVID-19 pandemic actually helping to fix climate change. Quite the contrary: the pandemic that made the world stop offers a glimpse of the deep changes in lifestyles and economic structures that we need to implement if we are to effectively mitigate the worst of climate change. 
    • Moreover, most of the world’s biodiversity is found in the low-income countries and emerging economies of the Global South, and in such places the economic impacts of the pandemic are likely to be devastating for the natural world. Exploiting natural resources is often the only option for the destitute. Wild animals, fish and forest trees are rarely owned by anyone, and they are found in rural areas where policing is difficult.  


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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 27th May, 2020

    9 months ago
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    Cornwall  

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • This page provides constituency statistics on Universal Credit in Great Britain, including our estimate of how far caseload rollout has progressed to date. 

    SOCIO-CULTURAL IMPACT 

    • The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 561 as at 18th May which is a rate of 98.7 per 100,000. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly has the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (80.6), North East Lincolnshire (92.6) and Dorset (93.5) have lower rates.  
    • 174 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 8th May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period. 
    • Analysis by the University of St. Andrews reveals that the Welsh, Gaelic- and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK. If the pandemic is to last long and the virus is to spread to all areas of the UK, remote small towns and rural communities are projected to have 50 to 80% higher death rates than the main cities because of their old population composition.  

      • Data collated by OCSI shows that March to April saw the largest single monthly increase in recorded unemployment – 850,000 new claimants across the UK (an increase of 66%). The increase is widespread, with every Local Authority in the UK seeing unemployment rise by more than one-third; and 76 of the 379 Local Authorities in the UK seeing their unemployment rate more than double in a single month. Local Authorities with seaside resorts see largest rise in unemployment rates, incl. the Isles of Scilly and Cornwall. 


    NATIONAL IMPACT 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • Parliamentary briefing states that the UK economy is in recession, with indications that the decline in GDP in 2020 will be the largest in the post-War era (when current data records began). The public finances will be significantly affected by the economic shock of the coronavirus outbreak. The Government’s budget deficit will increase as tax revenues fall and government spending increases. Government debt will, therefore, increase. At this stage no one can say by how much. 
    • Parliamentary briefing on the Covid-19 impact on the labour market shows that there were 637,000 job vacancies in February-April 2020, 170,000 less than the previous quarter and down 210,000 from the year before. Forecasted unemployment rates vary, but all the forecasters below predict a significant increase.  In their coronavirus reference scenario, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have predicted the unemployment rate may rise to 10%. 
    • This page provides constituency-level data on people claiming unemployment benefits, expressing the data both as the number of claimants and as a proportion of residents aged 16-64. 
    • New figures on the UK-wide government support schemes for individuals and businesses show that:  
      • 8 million jobs have now been furloughed with £11.1 billion claimed so far through the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) 
      • 2 million Self-employment Income Support (SEISS) claims have been submitted worth £6.1 billion 
      • Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) has seen 464,393 approved loans so far worth £14.18 billion 
      • Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) has seen 40,564 loans worth £7.25 billion approved so far the Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CLBILS) has seen 86 approved loans totalling £0.59 billion. 
    • According to Citizens’ Advice, over 2m people behind on council tax bills due to Covid-19 
    • As the construction sector has gone back to work, new figures show that planning applications of all types fell on average by 3.5 per cent in March and 18.5 per cent in April in England and Wales. Applications related to advertising have been hardest hit, with a 60 per cent decline. Applications related to telecoms infrastructure are up, demonstrating the continuing investment in 5G networks in particular. 
    • ONS data shows that the volume of retail sales in April 2020 fell by a record 18.1%, following the strong monthly fall of 5.2% in March 2020. All sectors saw a monthly decline in volume sales except for a record increase in sales for non-store retailing at 18.0% and a continued increase in sales for alcohol stores at 2.3%. 
    • ONS data also shows that of the 32.6 million in employment, around 1.7 million people reported working mainly from home, with around 4.0 million working from home in the week prior to being interviewed for the survey. Around 8.7 million people said that they have worked from home; this is less than 30% of the workforce. 
    • UK2070 Commission argues that Covid-19 has exposed regional disparities in health inequalities and economic disadvantage, and risks widening them if the policy response is not sensitive to place. 
    • Research by the Centre for Progressive Policy suggests that, as a result of the Covid response, the UK’s productivity crisis will deepen, with 76% of local authorities will not recover their expected level of output based on the pre-crisis trend after five years. Nearly 50% of Red Wall and 40% of Towns Fund local authorities are vulnerable places (places at particular risk of a prolonged economic recovery), compared to 23% across the UK as a whole. 
    • Vulnerable places and people will fall further behind 
      • Output in the twenty most vulnerable will be an average of 18% below the expected level based on the pre-crisis trend after five years;

      • average earnings in the twenty poorest local authorities will fall from £18,600 per annum to £17,300 in real terms in the three years after lockdown. 

    • In 2018-2019 the Trussell Trust supplied 1,583,668 three-day emergency food parcels, an increase of 18.8% on the previous year. Around a third of these – more than half a million – went to children. In the graph below, it is important not to confuse food parcel figures with the number of people accessing them.  

     

    • A specially-designed online survey of over 4,000 parents in England between 29 April and 12 May shows that children from better-off households are spending 30% more time each day on educational activities than are children from the poorest fifth of households. 
    • Suicide attempts by elderly people have increased as much as six-fold during the coronavirus crisis because of depression and anxiety from their social isolation, says the Royal College of Psychiatrists. 

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    • ONS data shows that across Great Britain, 80% of adults were worried about the effect that the coronavirus (COVID-19) was having on their life; this varied from 76% in the East Midlands and in Scotland, to 87% in the North East. We found those aged 16 to 34 years in the North East were particularly worried. In London, three out of every five workers said that they worked from home in April 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic; this was higher than the other countries and regions, with workers in the East of England and East Midlands being least likely to work from home. 
    • Four in five workers are think returning to work will put their family at risk, a GMB survey has revealed. 
    • ONS data also shows that the most common impact of the coronavirus on people’s lives this week is a lack of freedom and independence, with nearly 2 in 3 adults (65%) saying this was impacting them. Around 8 in 10 adults (80%) said they had enough information to protect themselves; a decrease on recent weeks and a similar level to the start of lockdown measuresAround 1 in 7 (14%) adults had not left their home over the past seven days; for those with an underlying health condition, 1 in 3 (33%) had not left their home. 



     

    FURTHER INFORMATION AND SOURCES 

    • Public Health England (PHE) in collaboration with the Local Government Association (LGA), Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH), and NHS England and NHS Improvement, have collated a suite of resources relating to health inequalities and COVID-19 to support place-based approaches to planning and responding to the pandemic, while mitigating against potential impacts on those with the poorest health outcomes. 

    COVID-19 and ethnicity  webinarTuesday 2 June 2020, 9.30am-11.00am 

    WEBINAR: Creating a Collaborative and Confident Place: recovery and reset after CovidThursday 4 June, 10:00 

     


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  • Intelligence Bulletin - 19th May, 2020

    9 months ago
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    CORNWALL 

     ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    •  Between February and April, Universal Credit applications have increased by 52.3% in Cornwall – with the two biggest increased in Newquay (78.6%) and Bude (61.5%). This information has come directly from DWP.  
    •  British Red Cross has developed a COVID-19 vulnerability index at Ward and Local Authority level. This covers demographic, clinical, economic and social vulnerabilities as well as other health needs and geographic isolation. It is also displayed in our Community Insights Map as well.  


    REGIONAL IMPACT 

    •   Two North West mayors have called for regional data on Covid-19 infection rates, warning that the change in Governments messaging from Stay at Home to Stay Alert has happened too early for their regions and with detrimentally affect their residents.  
    • Figures from the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy’s resilience index report that Woking, South Norfolk and Craven Districts are likely to be the hardest hit for loss of income from services such as parking and leisure while the public is in lockdown.   

     


    • The LGC reports that death rates from Covid-19 in the most deprived areas are more than double those in the least deprived. Although general mortality rates are normally higher in more deprived areas, the ONS says Covid-19 appears to be taking them higher still. The councils with the highest morality rates, outside of London, are: Hertsmere, Salford, Liverpool City, Watford and Middlesbrough.  

     

    SOCIAL IMPACT 

    •  More than a quarter of Care Homes deaths (27.3%) have involved Coronavirus: 31.4% of all deaths of male care home residents and 24.5% of deaths of female care home residents.  

     

     

    • Researchers at University College London, University College London NHS Trust, the University of Cambridge and Health Data Research UK have collaborated to find out how underlying health conditions could affect mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their health data study has revealed that having an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or diabetes, increases a person’s risk of death fivefold over the next year. 
    •  
    • New research conducted by the University of Exeter and the University of Connecticut in the USA found that older people with dementia were three times more likely to have severe  COVID-19 than older people with no dementia. 
    •  
    • The Institute of Fiscal Studies has been looking at whether the ‘adverse health effects of a recession may be greater than the increased morbidity and mortality within the pandemic itself’. The study looks at the effects a recession can have on health – physically and mentally – and the knock-on effects of these to future generations.  
    •  An NSPCC survey revealed that a quarter of British adults would not know where to seek help if they thought a child was being hurt or neglected. The NSPCC also reports that there is a growing concern that vulnerable children are at risk and are ‘missing out on vital support during Covid-19 and School closures’ 
    • A UCL led study, looking at the homelessness in a Covid-19 society estimates that in a ’do nothing’ scenario 34% of the homeless population could get COVID-19 between March and August 2020, with 364 deaths, 4,074 hospital admissions and 572 critical care admissions.  
    • YouGov study shows that most teachers think the coronavirus with cause mild or moderate harm to pupils education, yet 90% of teachers who teach at GCSE level are very or fairly confident they will give their students an accurate grade, as are 84% who teach A-levels. 

    NATIONAL  

    • study jointly led by the ONS, in partnership with the Universities of Oxford and Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust, is tracking infections within a representative sample of people of all ages across England.  The study has initially estimated that between 27th April and 10th May 2020, an average of 0.27% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.17% to 0.41%). It is also estimated that an average of 148,000 people in England had COVID-19 during this time (95% confidence interval: 94,000 to 222,000). 


    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

     

    • The government have released an interactive dashboard, analysing financial and economic indicators in light of Covid-19. 

     The ONS reports, from their fortnightly survey, that the main sectors that have temporarily ceased trading were accommodation and food service (81%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (80%). 57% of responding businesses in the accommodation and food service activities sector reported their turnover had decreased by more than 50% compared with normal. 82% of adults continue to say that they have either not left their home, or only left for permitted reasons in the last 7 days, with 21% of adults say their relationships have been affected. 

     

     

    • Nearly half of adults (46%) now expect it to be longer than six months before life returns to normal compared with 1 in 3 (33%) after the first week of lockdown. Just under 1 in 4 adults said the coronavirus was affecting their household finances. There was a drop in people feeling lonely this week.  
    • The economic consumer sentiment indicator and consumer confidence indicators have dropped to their lowest ratings since 2009 

     

    Events  

     Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week – 18-24 May 

    LGA: 21st May, 1045-1145 

    As our residents continue to experience self-isolation and social distancing measures, the impact on mental health and wellbeing is becoming increasingly apparent, including for children and young people. To help councils think through their local responses, this webinar will explore the public mental health and wellbeing impacts of COVID-19 across the life course and share how councils are working with partners to support people’s mental health and wellbeing both in this immediate phase and looking ahead to recovery. Click here for more information. 

    NHS Data Improvement Team: 22nd May, 1400-1600 

    Data Driven COVID Care Models ‘virtual huddle’ where we will have a national update about population health management approaches to COVID-19, as well as hear about local approaches to support people at-risk during COVID-19. Please register for the event here. 





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  • Intelligence Bulletin 13th May, 2020

    9 months ago
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    CORNWALL 

    • Research by CIoS LEP and Economic Growth has shown that if the entire tourist season is lost, Cornwall is looking at estimated losses of £1.5bn pounds.  

     

    • Potential net job losses in Cornwall as a result of the COVID-19 lockdown is 72,800. The majority of the job losses being concentrated in the following sectors: ‘Accommodation & Food Services’ a loss of 29,200 and ‘Wholesale, Retail & Motors’ losing 21,300 jobs overall. Other sectors with significant job losses are: ‘Education’ and ‘Manufacturing’ a net loss of 4,600 jobs, and ‘Arts, entertainment & recreation’ with an overall loss of 4,500. 
    • The number of successful Universal Credit claims has continued to grow since March 2019, reaching 24,934 in March 2020. Cornwall saw a +110% increase in calls to Cornwall’s Citizens Advice service regarding ‘initial benefit claims’ compared to April 2019. 
    • Data from Cornwall Council’s Together for Families Team show that there has been a +401% increase in per pupil applications for free school meals in April 2020 compared to April 2019: from 196 to 983 total applications. 
    • April 2020 saw a +142% increase in the numbers of CTS claims decided compared to April 2019. 


    NATIONAL 

    ECONOMIC IMPACT 

    • The Resolution Foundation weekly figures on economic impact of Covid-19 show that the flow of new Universal Credit claimants has slowed significantly in recent weeks but remains three times above the pre-crisis level. 
    • According to Citizens’ advice 6.3 million employees have been furloughed via the Job  Retention Scheme - nearly a quarter of all employees. There has been a 35% increase in people coming to CA for help with their initial claim for Universal Credit compared to the same period 6 months ago 
    • New research from Citizens Advice also shows that over 13 million people have already been unable to pay, or expect to be unable to pay, at least one bill because of the coronavirus outbreak. Of these, almost 11 million have missed or expect to miss a bill that would leave them vulnerable to severe consequences - including eviction, bailiff enforcement or disconnection - when Covid-19 financial protections end. 
    • The Food Foundation furthermore highlight that five million people in the UK living in households with children under 18 have experienced food insecurity since the lockdown started. 1.8 million of these experienced food insecurity solely due to the lack of supply of food in shops, leaving 3.2 million people (11% of households) suffering from food insecurity due to other issues such as loss of income or isolation. This is double the level of food insecurity among households with children reported by the Food Standards Agency in 2018 (5.7%). 


    IMPACT ON SPECIFIC GROUPS 

    • ONS data show a total of 2,494 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the working age population (aged 20-64 years)Nearly two-thirds of these deaths were among men (1,612 deaths). Men working in the lowest skilled occupations had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, with 21.4 deaths per 100,000 males (225 deaths); men working as security guards had one of the highest rates, with 45.7 deaths per 100,000 (63 deaths).  
    • Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths). Healthcare workers, including those with jobs such as doctors and nurses, were not found to have higher rates of death involving COVID-19 when compared with the rate among those whose death involved COVID-19 of the same age and sex in the general population. 
    • Youth unemployment in the UK could rise by 640,000 this year - taking the total above one million, a report from the Resolution Foundation found.  It said school leavers were hardest hit by recessions and it called for more support to prevent "years of reduced pay and limited job prospects". 
    • Research by the Fawcett Society show 51% of parents with young children will struggle to make ends meet in the next three months, and 57% face higher levels of debt after the crisis. It also finds that women who are working outside the home are more likely to be keyworkers, with six in ten (61%) compared with four in ten (43%) men saying their work is essential at this time 
    • The Resolution Foundation also suggest that key workers are disproportionately likely to be female, with employed women more than twice as likely to be in this group as employed men. Parents are more likely to be key workers than non-parents, and mothers even more so; 39 per cent of working mothers were key workers before this crisis began, compared to just 27 per cent of the working population as a whole 



     

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