Intelligence Bulletin - 3rd June, 2020

CORNWALL

• The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 [1] across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 576 as at 1 June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 101.4 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 3 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly remains the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (88.2), Dorset (96.9) and North East Lincolnshire (97.6) have lower rates.  
• 192 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including 22 May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period.  
• Overall; there were 2 additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 15 May). In the last reported week (week ending 22 May) the 2 deaths which mentioned COVID-19, both occurred in hospital. This shows a reduced position when compared to the previous week for hospital deaths.  
• There were no COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest week; this is the first week with no COVID-19 deaths in these settings since week 13 (week ending 27 March). The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 22 May remained at 63 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
• The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital now stands at 111 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home.  

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• Government figures show that Cornwall Council paid a total of £221,235,000 in grant payments to 19,461 businesses.  
• OCSI analysis shows that 7 of the 10 towns with largest increases in unemployment are in Cornwall. 

National Impact 

• A total of 43,837 deaths involving COVID-19 were registered in England and Wales between 28 December 2019 and 22 May 2020 (year to date). The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 22 May 2020 (Week 21) was 12,288; this was 2,285 less than Week 20 but 2,348 more than the five-year average. 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• YouGov data shows that Britons are now almost as likely to say that ‘the economy’ is one of the top three issues facing the country (61%) as they are to say ‘health’ (66%). 
• ONS data shows that in April 2020, 2.1 million people claimed unemployment related benefits. This was an increase of over 850,000 claimants from March 2020. On 28 May, new declarations for Universal Credit and new claim advances had both gradually declined to 19 May 2020, following peaks on 27 March and 6 April, respectively.  
• 79% of businesses in the UK had applied for the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. By midnight on 24 May, 8.4 million jobs had been furloughed through the government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS). 
• Around 2.5 million UK residents, hundreds of thousands of whom are in employment, have been identified by the government as being “extremely clinically vulnerable”. Research by Citizens Advice found that of the 2,000 people contacting them since 14 April for help, over 70% of those who were shielding had not been furloughed. 
• Total online job vacancies declined more than 50% from the start of March to the start of May 2020. 
• YouGov shows that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on many Britons’ finances is bleak: 44% feel less financially secure, over a third say their savings have taken a hit (36%) and a similar number (35%) say their income has gone down. Meanwhile, 16% say their debts have gone up. 
• More than 40% of jobs are at risk in resort towns across the country. The map, to be found here, shows that the highest concentrations are seen in coastal and large rural Local Authorities containing resorts and national parks where the hospitality industry predominates. The lowest concentrations are found in and around London and University towns with a stronger knowledge economy. At town level, the 10 with the highest proportion of jobs at risk are shown in the table below. Each of these are located in areas with high dependence on tourism, with eight of the 10 located in seaside resorts. 

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• Analysis by Inside Housing indicates that areas with more overcrowded housing have been worst hit by coronavirus. 
• An FT editorial suggests that a growing number of urban residents that are now considering living in the countryside as lockdown has forced the country into working from home.  
• While total energy consumption has declined due to shutting down large sections of the economy, domestic consumption has increased. Uswitch estimates that home confinement will cost the average energy consumer an extra £16 per month (Uswitch, 2020). These costs are likely to be higher for people living in homes with poor energy standards. 
• ONS data indicates that those with the lowest household incomes increased their total time in paid work, working a similar amount of time outside of the home as they did in 2014 to 2015; this may indicate that that those in lower income households are in occupations that cannot be undertaken from home. People with the highest household incomes continued to work the same amount on average, as they made a greater switch towards homeworking time. 
• Further ONS data shows that in London, three out of every five workers said that they worked from home in April 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic; this was higher than the other countries and regions, with workers in the East of England and East Midlands being least likely to work from home. 
• The most neighbourly area was the South West, where 64% of people checked on their neighbours at least once in April, compared with London where 48% had checked at least once. 

SOCIAL IMPACT 

• ONS data shows that more people have left their home the week of 29 May, with 90% of adults saying they had left for any reason compared with 86% last week. The most common reasons for leaving home continue to be: essential shopping, exercise, work and medical need; however, leaving to meet with others in a public place has seen the largest increase this week. Almost 3 in 10 adults (29%) said they felt unsafe or very unsafe when outside of their home this week, compared with over 4 in 10 (41%) last week. 
• We can expect more people of all ages to experience loneliness and social isolation due to the impact of social distancing measures and the reduction in face-to-face opportunities to socialise, connect with family, neighbours and friends, and to take part in physical activity and everyday cultural and faith experiences. The loneliness and social isolation impacts from COVID-19 will be experienced by people across the life course, but some will be more at risk than others and will need targeted approaches that are also sensitive to the stigma that can be associated with loneliness and social isolation. This table below summarises the main risk factors of loneliness and social isolation. 
• Refuge, the charity which runs the national domestic abuse helpline has had a 10-fold increase in visits to its website in the past two weeks. The charity said the lockdown itself does not cause domestic abuse but "can aggravate pre-existing behaviours in an abusive partner". 

HEALTH 

• An NHS nationwide analysis in England demonstrates that all types of diabetes are independently associated with a significant increased risk of in-hospital death with COVID-19. 

ENVIRONMENTAL 

• A new study in Nature Climate Change led by scientists from the University of East Anglia and Stanford has found that daily global CO₂ emissions in early April 2020 were down 17% compared to the mean level of emissions in 2019. The global COVID-19 quarantine has meant less air pollution in cities and clearer skies. But these relatively small and temporary changes should not be mistaken for the COVID-19 pandemic actually helping to fix climate change. Quite the contrary: the pandemic that made the world stop offers a glimpse of the deep changes in lifestyles and economic structures that we need to implement if we are to effectively mitigate the worst of climate change. 
• Moreover, most of the world’s biodiversity is found in the low-income countries and emerging economies of the Global South, and in such places the economic impacts of the pandemic are likely to be devastating for the natural world. Exploiting natural resources is often the only option for the destitute. Wild animals, fish and forest trees are rarely owned by anyone, and they are found in rural areas where policing is difficult.