Intelligence Bulletin - 24th June, 2020

Local Impact 

• The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 594 as at 22 June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 104.5 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 3 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly is now the 5th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England (falling from 4th in previous weeks) with Devon’s rates remaining lower – Rutland (88.2), Dorset (98.8) North East Lincolnshire (103.2) and Devon (104.2) have lower rates.  
• 203 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 12 June) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period.  
• Overall; there were no additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 5 June). This is the first week without any COVID-19 related deaths since week ending 13 March.  
• There were no COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest reported week. The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 12 June remains at 66 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
• The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital remains at 119 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home.  
• Taking into account the size and age structure of the population, there were 28.9 deaths involving COVID-19 per 100,000 people across Cornwall between March and May this compares to 81.9 per 100,000 persons in England and the South West, which saw the lowest age-standardised of all regions, with a mortality rate of 41.2 deaths per 100,000 population. 

SOCIAL IMPACT 

• VCSE sector survey results show that 92% of organisations have cancelled part of their usual provision, and just a quarter reported that their services were operating as normal, with the rest having moved their services online in order to still support their regular users, and new ones. Most groups reported a downturn in income (78%), with previous fundraising activities and events, membership fees, shops and charges for premises hire and courses disappearing.   

 National Impact 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• ONS data shows a fairly substantial regional variation in the proportion of businesses seeing a decrease in turnover. 
• A new report by the County Council's Network outlines the financial impact of Coronavirus on councils, which could run over several years, leaving England’s largest local authorities in an unsustainable position. The study, carried out by Grant Thornton and based on data provided by county and unitary authorities, shows that all 39 of councils included in the study could use up their available reserves in 2021/22 to cover a funding shortfall of £2.5bn. The report sets out that England’s largest councils could be facing the prospect of ‘large scale reductions’ in services to set legal budgets this year. 
• An LGiU round up provides an outline of each of the new funding streams and looks at how they are being allocated. 
• The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has published a report detailing the financial risks to local government posed by the COVID-19 crisis. It has found that local authorities in affluent areas are more at risk from loss of income and those authorities with higher levels of deprivation face more financial risk from increased service demands. 
• The Local Government Association (LGA) has responded to the above report by the IFS stating that although the Government has provided funding for local government to assist with the cost of the COVID-19 crisis, further funding and financial flexibilities are now needed to help councils meet a shortfall which we estimate could reach at least a further £6 billion this year.  
• New report by the Centre for Policy Studies (written by Sajid Javid) states the crisis will exacerbate regional inequalities. It is the regions which were already suffering from low productivity, low levels of capital intensification and lack of investment which have been most affected by the crisis. The report recommends “a revitalised devolution agenda to level-up the UK, with more City Deals and increasing the powers and capacity of devolved authorities to invest for growth”.  
• A report by DevoConnect looks at local variation in recovery from past recessions and current national recovery projections. It then estimates long run recovery rates for different local areas. The results show clear regional differences. The average GVA loss relative to trend after 5 years is highest in the North East, at 11.7%. The lowest average GVA loss is in the South East, with a 5.4% decline relative to trend predicted by 2025. Given this regional effect, with the North and the Midlands likely to be hit much harder that the South East and parts of London, we outline a roadmap to recovery that goes from ‘shoring up’ to ‘levelling up’. The government must shore up local economies in the short-run to limit economic hardship and to head-off greater unemployment down the line. In the long-run the government must return with renewed commitment to the levelling-up agenda it outlined pre-outbreak. This means closing the economic gaps that persist across the country and are set to be exacerbated by Covid-19. 
• The Resolution Foundation has done an audit of household wealth and the initial effects of the coronavirus crisis on saving and spending in Great Britain. It finds that household wealth in the UK is distributed very unevenly and the pounds-and-pence gap between richer and poorer families has increased markedly over the past decade. The primary driver of larger wealth gaps between families has been rising asset prices driven by falling interest rates. Key workers and workers in shut down sectors are less likely to have savings. This means those more exposed to the health and economic crises are less likely to have savings to protect living standards if their incomes fall. Poorer families are more likely to be saving less or increasing debt as a result of the coronavirus crisis than wealthier families. 
• ONS data highlights the possibility of widening economic inequalities as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. With most people having been expected to work from home where possible, we can see that people in jobs that had previously allowed homeworking had higher average incomes in the financial year ending 2019. 
• Research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) shows that the pandemic crisis has caused:  
  • 7 in 10 families with children claiming Universal Credit or Child Tax Credit to cut back on essentials;
  • 6 in 10 to borrow money; 
  • over 5 in 10 to be behind on rent or other essential bills.  
• JRF are calling for an urgent, temporary, £20 per week increase to the child element of Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit as this would directly ease the pressure on care-givers and help to support parents to nurture and look after their children in the way that we want all children to be cared for. 

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

• The annual Budget Survey by ADASS (Association of Directors of Adult Social Services) reveals the scale of the financial impact of the pandemic and its very real consequences on the care and support of millions, the ability of local authorities to fund adult care, and the very viability of thousands of caring organisations that provide vital support that enables millions of us to live good lives. It shows that next year there will be a lack of resources to ensure decent levels of service.  
• Millions of people across the UK have become unpaid carers for loved ones due to the coronavirus outbreak, new research has found. Data estimates that 4.5 million more people are now caring for older, disabled or seriously ill family or friends as a result of the pandemic. This is on top of 9.1 million people who were already caring for loved ones before the crisis erupted. 
• Children are developing serious mental health conditions, including post-traumatic stress, because of the coronavirus pandemic. The Childhood Trust who provide services to disadvantaged children in London says disadvantage is leaving children extremely vulnerable. As well as anxiety about their loved ones' health, many children are facing social isolation and hunger. Lack of internet access is also setting disadvantaged children back. 

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 

• The effects of lockdown are on course to reduce emissions this year by nearly four times the UK's target for becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Analysis shows that if we progress in a linear way, carbon emissions will reduce by 11% this year - a much bigger drop than the 3% target set by the Committee on Climate Change, a group that advises the government.  
• Traffic on Britain's roads is now at a similar level to that seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the AA says. It slumped to between 35% and 40% of the pre-coronavirus volume at the beginning of lockdown but has since doubled to around 75%. 
• London congestion charge rises to £15 a day and extends to 7 days a week. The temporary measures are being introduced under the terms of Transport for London's £1.6bn rescue package from the government.