Intelligence Bulletin - 14th July, 2020

CORNWALL 

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE

• Trend analysis from new ONS household data, comparing 2018 to 2043, shows Cornwall’s household population will significantly change. Nationally, across the board, there is an increase of single parent families, households with dependent children, single households and households with no children but two or more adults. In Cornwall, the data shows a continuing trend seen in previous ONS analysis, of more single households over the next 35 years. 
  • Females living alone will increase by 37.3% (England: 26.17%);  Males living alone will increase by 29.13% (England: 21.39%);  
  • Households with two or more adults, but no children, will increase by 28.32% (England 19.7%);  
  • Households with children:  
    • 1 dependent child will increase by 7.47% (England (3.97%);  
    • 2 dependent children will increase by 6.75% (England 1.16%);  
    • 3 dependent children will increase by 5.01% (England 0.7%). 
• As of 10th July, Cornwall has the third lowest rate (157.3) of Covid in England and Wales. We sit under North East Lincolnshire (129.5) and Devon (150.3). 
• Throughout lock down, the cumulative number of cases per 100,000 people in Cornwall have remained in the top 12 authorities.  

HOUSING  

• Based on the average house price in Cornwall for all property types (latest available, March 2020, UK House Price index): £238,854.   
• For first time buyers there would be no saving (before the holiday first time buyers didn’t pay stamp duty on the first £300k).   
• For existing homeowners, they would save £2,277.  
• For additional homeowners the saving would be £2,943. 

NATIONAL 

ECONOMY  

• The LGA have explored the impact that lock down has had on sports and physical activity in the UK. The article looks backwards and forwards, understanding the changes and the repercussions that it has had for the recovery period.  With UKactive and Community Leisure UK warning that there could be up to half of all leisure centres/public leisure facilities facing permanent closure by the end of the year, this paper looks at the impact that would cause. Overall, they conclude that there are 7 key strategic areas that need focus and coordinated action within the recovery phase to ensure these centres remain open:  

1. Addressing health and economic inequalities;  

2. Physical and mental health; 

3. Active travel in rebooting the economy;  

4. Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change; 

5. Young and older people; 

6. Building stronger communities; 

7. Service integration.  

• ONS’ Social Impacts study revealed that a quarter of adults (25%) said they ‘were likely or very likely to go on holiday in the UK this summer’, but only 9% of adults were likely or very likely to go abroad. The survey also included an analysis of reasons to leave the house for 2nd - 5th July, broken down into two age brackets 15-69 years and 70+ years.  It showed that more 70+ only left the house for basic necessities (76%), whilst also showing that 6% (around 1 in 20 people) left their house to visit an outdoor beauty spot, a decrease of 8% from the previous week.     
• With thousands of jobs being lost, redundancy advice is being sought out with Citizens Advice reporting that they are receiving a call every 2 minutes. The charity is reporting that the swell in calls are reflective of an ‘escalating economic crisis’. They also report that their benefits web page, where there is a wealth of information and guidance, has received record breaking traffic figures – 4.4 million views since 23rd March.  
• A Live Comedy Association (LVA) survey has reported that 77% of venues will be forced to permanently close within 12 months, with a third saying that they may only have 6 months left. The LCA are lobbying government to not forget them in the entertainment funding allocations later in the year.  
• The LGA have produced a study articles, with recommendations, for Coastal and Rural towns that have high numbers of tourists. The study reports that, internationally, there may be a global tourism collapse due to international travel income estimating to drop by $910bn - $1.2tr. They report ‘signs’ of a shift in travel destinations to become more domestic, particularly this year. As such, coastal and rural areas that already had a traditional holiday influx of tourists are set to see even higher numbers than ever before. It looks at guarding residents whilst maintaining the relationship between both parties. 
• The Centre for Progressive Policy has released a study looking at the skills within employment nationwide to understand their essential role in the recovery phase. They've identified a range of divisions across the council, most notably that Red Wall places under perform in 7 out of the 8 indicators that they analysed. Also, participation in Adult Education Classes has declined by 37% since 2012/13 - further inhibited by the 39% decrease of government funding for this area since 2002. Within this report, there are three main areas identified that need improvement: failing participation and investment; inequality in participation and place-based equality in skills. CPP are therefore lobbying for the ‘right to retrain’, with four recommendations to help with this:     

1. Building a high quality online learning system – establishing a central infrastructure for online skills and fast track the Education Technology Strategy; 

2. Strengthening existing provision – government should pay 50% of all apprenticeships wages and extend public funding to include level 3 qualifications for everyone;   

3. Support for living costs for those in needs of training – for those that have already lost their jobs, the government should pay a Learners Living Allowance and for those in jobs to be entitled for paid time off to undertake training;   

4. Ramping up local strategic input – there should be a place based remit for further education centres with a strategic, rather than a marketplace, delivery of provision and the ‘New Skills Advisory Board’ should report to the local mayor on labour needs.  

• The Local Government Intelligence Unit have announced a ‘Post Councils Project’ for all Local Authorities to get involved with.  
• A survey, undertaken by BritainThinks, has shown that just 12% of the UKs residents want life to return to normal ‘exactly as it was before’.  Research also shows that, from the survey, the top three priorities from respondents are: better funding for the NHS, better treatment and wages for essential workers and an economic recovery that isn’t London-centric.  

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE 

• The ONS’ Social Impact Study shows that whilst anxiety levels have been decreasing, this week saw its largest increase to 4.0, from 3.6 last week. This is reflected within worries about the future, were being generally stressed or anxious and spending too much time with others in the household.    

Office for National Statistics - Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, 2020  

• Space enabled technology will be utilised to help identify vulnerable people. Combining local authority data and satellite data, the space agency will help identify people who are more exposed to the impacts of Covid. This project will also help meet challenges in delivering supplies, such as test kits and masks, as well as managing localised outbreaks. An initial £2.6m has been made available for a number of small projects under this joint initiative with the European Space Agency and the NHS England.   
• New research shows that up to a third of social workers could be looking to quit, a survey by the Social Workers Union exposes. This has come after 50% of social workers are reported to have put their own health at risk during lock down with 51% saying risk assessments have been poor. Worryingly 1 in 10 (11%) have felt threatened with disciplinary measures for raising safety concerns – both professional and personal safety with the survey also reporting that over 60% of social workers have felt their mental health has been affected negatively during lock down. Illustratively, 1 in 20 social workers have suffered total collapse during this time.  
• Public generosity exceeded expectations during lock down, with a huge surge in donations to food banks and ‘go fund me’ pages. However, analysis from The Conversation, concludes that this is exceptional and will not become the new normal – leaving struggling families even more vulnerable. Analysis already shows that as the number of Covid cases declined towards the end of April, so did the number of donations made to Food Banks nationally. This is at a time where UC claimants have more than doubled in some areas. The report further identifies that richer areas are more likely to donate more.    
• Almost half (48%) of people in the UK have provided help or support to someone outside of their household during the first month of lock down. Previously it was around only 11% with over 80% of those that helped, it was most likely with shopping. Notably, 3% helped with personal care. Below, you can clearly seen the differences between 2017/18 and April 2020.  

• Calls to the Charity Become, that support young care leavers, have reported a 75% increase in calls from children and young people requesting help and assurances. The charity reports that moving from supported living to being alone, once they turn 18, was already hard enough – now with Covid there is a significant amount of uncertainty of which a large proportion cannot be answered. The charity is lobbying government to help.     
• The ONS have produced an interactive map showing the number of deaths due to Covid, down to MSOA. Whilst publicly this data is only available to MSOA level, it clearly shows a higher level of Covid related deaths in areas with higher population density.     

• Further, ONS have analysed Covid related deaths with socio-economic definitions. The age-standardised morality rates on average and then compared to Covid-related deaths for May 2020 is below.   

• The Children's Commissioner has produced a report looking at the number of children that were already vulnerable, and those that have become vulnerable due to Covid and are at risk from ‘falling through the gap’. The report shows that in 2017/18 123,000 fell through the gaps of provision – becoming invisible to authorities. The analysis shows that 4 in every 100 teenagers are becoming invisible. National rates for invisible teenagers is 4% - but in Medway, Liverpool and Blackpool it is 7%. Local authority data is available on the link above.  
• More than 10,000 disadvantaged students in Manchester have received laptops, tablets and routers to aid in their education during lock down. This joint initiative, with all the local councils in Manchester (excluding Trafford council) and the Department of Education is aimed at students, social care leavers and families with no access to digital devices.  
• The NHS have announced a ‘Online’ Rehabilitation lab for those suffering from long term affects due to Covid. This ‘ground breaking’ project will enable thousands of people to access on-demand services from nursers and physiotherapists.  
• A study from UCL has shown that a fifth of vulnerable people in Britain have ‘thought about self harming or killing themselves’ during lock down. The study showed that whilst 42% had access to services, 5% harmed themselves during lock down and 18% reported thoughts of self-harm or suicide. The Guardian also reports that there was a significant rise in ambulance calls to mental health concerns from last year – this analysis excludes the London ambulance service.  
• Care costs are set to significantly increased post Covid, with estimates that more than half a million people will be forced to pay at extra £40,000 a year for care at home. This is due to residents not wanting to be in care homes due to Covid.  
• Cases of malnutrition in children have doubled in the last 6 months – with almost 2,500 children admitted to hospital in the first 6 months of this year. A main concern is that Covid is only going to exasperate the issue. Whilst less than 2/3rds of trusts responded, almost 1,000 children in Cambridge alone were admitted due to malnutrition.  

HOUSING  

• Nationally a large number of landlords are flouting evictions bans to evict tenants, before the ban is lifted in August. Citizens advice report that at least 1000 tenants have seeked advice due to unlawful eviction between March and June this year – which is more than double the previous year. The Government have reinforced their statement saying that if you are given notice, you have the legal right to stay put. However, the Citizens Advice campaign ‘Get help if you’re being Evicted’ during April and June this year had over 7,500 clicks; where the help page on ‘If you have no where to stay tonight’ had a 139% increase with 7,200 views.  
• New data released by the ONS shows that 16 homeless people have died due to Covid. All 16 were based in England and not Wales. 6 were from London and 3 in the North West. This data is very early, with full analysis from the ONS due in late 2021. 
• Continuing the bundle series, the LGA have just released a guidance bundle dedicated to Homelessness.  

Extra reading  

• The LGA have produced a guide to ‘statistics’ through Covid, specifically for the focus on developing Corporate Strategy – aimed at councillors and officers.  

Webinars  

Working with the voluntary and community sector to support communities 
15 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.30am 

Financial hardship and economical vulnerability 
16 July 2020, 10.40am – 12.10pm 

Regional Recovery and Renewal 
17 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.30am 

Councils’ role in deliverying the UN Sustainable Development Goals post COVID-19 
17 July 2020, 3.00pm – 4.00pm 

Rethinking the future of physical activity – Local government in conversation with Sport England 
20 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.45am 

Cyber security in the age of COVID-19 
21 July 2020, 10.30am – 12.00pm 

Early years inclusion: supporting young children (0-5) with SEND during COVID-19 
21 July 2020, 1,30pm – 3.00pm 

Local government’s digital response to COVID-19 
28 July 2020, 10.30am – 11.35am 

Childcare sufficiency and sustainability during the COVID-19 pandemic 
28 July 2020, 2.00pm – 3.30pm