Intelligence Bulletin - 10th June, 2020

Local impact 

• The cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly stands at 582 as at 8th June (Source: UK.GOV) which is a rate of 102.4 per 100,000. This represents an increase of 6 cases since Tuesday of last week. Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly remains the 4th lowest rate of all Upper Tier Councils in England – only Rutland (88.2), Dorset (96.9) and North East Lincolnshire (98.9) have lower rates.  
• 198 deaths have been registered for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly residents (up to and including the 29th May) which mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19); accounting for 7% of all deaths over the period. 
• Overall; there were 5 additional COVID-19 related deaths from the previous week (week ending 22 May). In the last reported week (week ending 29 May) 3 deaths which mentioned COVID-19, occurred in hospital. This figure remains static, with the same number reported as the previous week for hospital deaths.  
• There were 2 COVID-19 care home deaths in the latest reported week. The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes that occurred up to and including 29 May is now 65 accounting for 8% of all deaths in care homes over the period.  
• The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospital now stands at 115 deaths, with a further 18 in the community/ at home. 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• Cornwall’s unemployment claimant rate more than doubled from March 2020 to April 2020, from 2.7 to 5.8.  The Isles of Scilly saw the largest rate rise of all 379 Local Authorities, from 0.7 to 5.8. 
• Almost 70% of respondents to Cornwall Councils April Food Support Survey are supporting any presenting need – whilst the remaining 30% offer support to more specific demographic groups. 
• Over 37% of respondents who were operative prior to lockdown reported an increase in demand of 50% or more, relative to the pre-lockdown period – with over a fifth stating demand had more than doubled.  
• 46% of people receiving food support were estimated to be ‘newly vulnerable’, with ‘Low income: other’ identified as the number 1 factor in the cause in the rise in food demand (the second highest 1st ranked cause). 
• Per pupil applications for free school meals increased by +401% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. 

HEALTH 

Figures show that food poisoning cases in Cornwall have reduced dramatically during the pandemic; between the two week period at the end of May in 2019 and the same two week period in 2020. Cases have fallen from 170 to just 70. This is attributed to residents not eating out and not being in the natural environment as much e.g. swimming in the sea. 

National impact 

• ONS estimates that at any given time between 17 May and 30 May 2020, an average of 0.10% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.05% to 0.18%); this equates to an average of 53,000 people in England (95% confidence interval: 25,000 to 99,000). 

ECONOMIC IMPACT 

• 1.1 million more people face poverty at end of 2020 as a result of coronavirus pandemic, finds IPPR. 200,000 more children are among those expected to be below pre-virus poverty line.  
• New research by JRF finds more than a third of furloughed private renters (37%) are worried about being able to pay their rent when the coronavirus lockdown ends. 
• Polling that JRF commissioned from YouGov from 22 to 28 May confirmed that homeowners are not always well placed to financially weather unexpected changes to their incomes, with almost 40% of mortgage holders having suffered reduced income due to coronavirus, and almost one in five worried about meeting their housing costs after the lockdown lifts – around 1.3 million households. This is higher again for households with children: almost 23% of mortgage holders with children are worried about how they will meet their housing costs after lockdown. 
• Citizen’s Advice recent ‘Near the cliff-edge’ report found that 1 in 8 renters say they are behind on their rent already, with a further 23% expected to fall behind due to coronavirus. Over 2.6 million renters are currently behind or will fall behind due to coronavirus—most likely those who are younger or in insecure work. 
• Over half of frontline services have seen a rise in homelessness due to the coronavirus pandemic, research has revealed today. Homelessness charity Crisis also found nearly three quarters of those surveyed have seen a rise in demand for services since the start of the outbreak. 
• The Food Foundation have found 4.9m adults were food insecure in mid-May (with 1.7m children in these households), compared to 2m pre-lockdown. This is 9.3% of adults, compared to 15.6% in the first 2 weeks – which though an improvement, is still 250% higher than pre-lockdown (3.8%). This disproportionately impacts BAME communities, those with health problems or disabilities, and FSM eligible households. 
• Compared to the first two weeks, economic issues have overtaken supply as the primary reason. 880,000 (2%) are receiving food parcels, with a further 4.4m (8%) relying on informal support networks. Of those shielding, 7% are receiving parcels and 27% relying on support networks. 
• Compared to the start of lockdown, 34% now find it easier to access food, but 26% find it harder. 8% find it easier to afford food, but 16% find it harder.  
• Trussell Trust foodbanks have reported an 89% increase in need across April (year on year), including 107% more children and 67% more household referrals. This followed an 81% increase across March, including 122% more children and 48% more household referrals. This shows a disproportionate impact on children (with 0-16 year olds 20% of the population but making up 43% of the additional parcels), and persistence of demand following the expansion of Government’s support measures.  
• Nationally, the Independent Food Aid Network reported a 175% increase in need across April (year on year) – totalling just under 100,000 3-day parcels in April – and a 132% rise in people or referrals. The most common referral reasons were new unemployment and wait for UC payment, benefit delays, low income, benefit sanctions, and free school meals voucher ineligibility/insufficiency. 

SOCIAL IMPACT 

• ONS data shows that 5.0% of people in Great Britain (2.6 million adults) reported that they felt lonely "often" or "always" between 3 April and 3 May 2020, about the same proportion as pre-lockdown. Of those asked, 30.9% (7.4 million adults) reported their well-being had been affected through their feeling lonely in the past seven days. 
• ONS data shows that during the week ending 5 June, the most common reasons for leaving home across Great Britain were: essential shopping, exercise, work and running errands; however, leaving to meet with others in a public place continued to increase this week, and the largest increase compared with last week was for those travelling to and from work. Over 4 in 10 adults (41%) said they felt safe or very safe when outside of their home this week, compared with 33% last week. 6 in 10 adults (60%) in Great Britain felt safe when meeting with someone outside of their household outdoors, but this fell to around 1 in 3 who felt safe when visiting garden centres (36%). 
• Thanks to social-distancing measures meaning proper cinemas are no-gos, we’ve seen a string of drive-in screens launch in London over the past few months, says Time Out. 

HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE  

• Adult social care providers face more than £6.6bn in extra costs due to the coronavirus pandemic by the end of September, according to new research. Local authorities are shouldering £3.3bn of the costs, with £2.6bn relating to self-funders and Clinical Commissioning Groups. The research also found that adult care had swallowed 40% of the £3.2bn emergency funding received by councils. 
• Some care home residents have been forced to pay a 'coronavirus bill’ of up to £100 a week by their provider, a charity has warned. Age UK said some care home providers are charging residents an extra 15% on top of their existing fees to pay for PPE and the cost of covering staff absences. 
• The government's contact tracing app could exacerbate existing health inequalities, a charity has warned today. A survey published by the Health Foundation shows that six in ten people say they are likely to download the app once it is released. However, there is a significant ‘digital divide’ based on occupation, age and educational level. 
• Councils fear a rise in vulnerable children and families needing support as a result of the Coronavirus lockdown, but may struggle to cope due to existing funding shortfalls and additional costs of the pandemic. New analysis by the County Councils Network (CCN) reveals that core government funding for children’s services reduced by 35% – some £354m – since 2015/16. These reductions are higher than any other part of the country and came at the same time the costs of providing these services increased £600m over the same period. 
• According to the latest research from King’s College London, around one in 20 Covid patients experience long-term symptoms for at least a month, sometimes longer. While the vast majority of those who contract Covid-19 will make a full recovery, there is increasing concern about a small but significant number of patients whose symptoms persist weeks and even months after first falling ill.